ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

If recon confirm increased to 60-65mph dose that mean it will stay farther north or farther south?

I moved the post from recon discussion thread to here as for sure you will get the answer to your question much more rapidly over here.

not necessarily. the ridging is strongest in the mid levels and as of rigth now the convection is shallow. so steering will still be low to mid level.

[hurricanefloyd5]

the stronger it gets the farther north it gose?

[Bocadude85]

I wonder how far south of Jacksonville Beryl will cross the coast... I wouldnt be shocked to see a landfall close to Daytona Beach

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 262149
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 23 20120526
214100 3233N 07747W 9700 00386 0141 +210 +209 050039 040 031 001 00
214130 3232N 07750W 9705 00382 0140 +210 +206 042041 043 031 001 00
214200 3232N 07752W 9702 00383 0141 +209 +207 041039 041 024 002 03
214230 3231N 07755W 9711 00374 0139 +209 //// 038037 038 030 004 05
214300 3230N 07756W 9698 00382 0135 +208 //// 038037 038 032 002 01
214330 3228N 07758W 9701 00380 0134 +210 +204 039036 037 029 003 00
214400 3227N 07800W 9701 00381 0134 +213 +198 042037 038 033 002 00
214430 3225N 07802W 9702 00378 0133 +211 +200 038038 039 033 001 00
214500 3224N 07804W 9699 00381 0133 +210 +205 035040 040 029 005 03
214530 3222N 07805W 9696 00383 0133 +210 +202 031037 038 /// /// 03
214600 3220N 07803W 9705 00374 0133 +209 +206 032035 035 028 001 03
214630 3219N 07802W 9696 00382 0131 +210 +207 031034 035 031 001 00
214700 3218N 07800W 9704 00375 0131 +210 //// 029030 031 026 002 05
214730 3217N 07759W 9702 00376 0129 +213 +203 031032 033 027 003 00
214800 3215N 07757W 9700 00376 0128 +213 +204 029032 033 026 000 00
214830 3214N 07755W 9698 00379 0126 +214 +206 030032 033 026 002 00
214900 3213N 07754W 9699 00375 0126 +214 +207 032032 033 027 002 00
214930 3211N 07752W 9701 00371 0124 +215 +204 033033 034 029 000 00
215000 3210N 07751W 9699 00374 0123 +212 +208 030034 035 029 001 00
215030 3209N 07749W 9699 00370 0121 +215 +206 027035 036 028 002 00
$$

[cycloneye]

the stronger it gets the farther north it gose?

You and Aric posted at the same time. Look at his above post for the answer.

[SFLcane]

Latest, enhanced contrast



Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Sweet!!

[cycloneye]

A few 40,s+ winds at flight level are good. Closing on center for the second pass.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 262159
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 24 20120526
215100 3208N 07748W 9697 00371 0120 +214 +204 025034 035 028 003 00
215130 3206N 07746W 9699 00366 0118 +215 +202 028035 037 029 002 00
215200 3205N 07744W 9701 00365 0117 +214 +201 029036 037 029 000 00
215230 3204N 07743W 9699 00365 0115 +215 +195 031038 040 031 001 00
215300 3202N 07741W 9696 00366 0113 +214 +199 029037 039 030 001 00
215330 3201N 07740W 9701 00362 0112 +213 +201 029039 041 036 001 03
215400 3200N 07738W 9701 00359 0110 +211 +201 031038 040 032 001 00
215430 3158N 07737W 9700 00359 0109 +211 +198 031039 040 031 004 03
215500 3157N 07735W 9700 00356 0106 +210 +200 030040 042 032 003 30
215530 3156N 07734W 9704 00353 0105 +210 +203 028038 039 030 000 03
215600 3155N 07732W 9698 00355 0102 +211 +194 034042 045 033 002 00
215630 3153N 07730W 9698 00357 0100 +210 +192 033044 047 033 002 00
215700 3152N 07729W 9702 00350 0099 +210 +193 032044 046 037 000 03
215730 3151N 07727W 9694 00354 0095 +210 +190 028045 046 037 002 03
215800 3149N 07726W 9711 00328 0086 +210 +195 030046 047 036 002 00
215830 3148N 07724W 9703 00334 0082 +206 +197 032046 047 036 003 00
215900 3147N 07723W 9699 00335 0080 +205 +199 030045 047 037 003 03
215930 3146N 07722W 9706 00327 0077 +207 +199 033046 047 037 007 03
220000 3145N 07720W 9699 00328 0075 +205 +199 036046 048 037 000 03
220030 3144N 07719W 9701 00326 0072 +205 +202 036044 048 040 002 00
$$

closer to the center

[ozonepete]

Should complete tranformation to tropical overnight or early tomorrow.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

All I've got to say is, that when it makes it's stall and return out to sea, I hope it swings by NC and drops a lot of rain for us too. All of eastern NC is dry and the coast is under moderate drought. Not as severe as Georgia and Florida, but we can use some water too.

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 262209
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 25 20120526
220100 3143N 07718W 9697 00330 0070 +205 +202 036043 044 038 002 03
220130 3142N 07717W 9704 00318 0066 +206 +203 033045 047 039 002 03
220200 3141N 07715W 9696 00322 0065 +205 +203 035046 048 036 002 03
220230 3139N 07714W 9703 00313 0060 +208 +203 039049 050 043 001 03
220300 3138N 07713W 9702 00311 0059 +196 //// 039051 052 043 013 01
220330 3137N 07711W 9698 00312 //// +192 //// 033044 049 041 011 01
220400 3136N 07710W 9698 00309 //// +189 //// 033044 045 039 008 01
220430 3135N 07709W 9698 00307 0049 +200 //// 040044 046 038 004 01
220500 3134N 07707W 9709 00296 0045 +207 //// 044045 047 038 004 01
220530 3133N 07706W 9706 00296 0043 +208 //// 051049 050 039 003 01
220600 3132N 07705W 9697 00298 0038 +204 //// 052048 050 037 004 01
220630 3131N 07704W 9699 00293 0034 +205 //// 053048 048 038 005 01
220700 3130N 07703W 9699 00291 0031 +202 //// 054046 047 039 006 01
220730 3129N 07701W 9702 00286 //// +191 //// 053046 049 044 014 01
220800 3128N 07700W 9696 00290 0026 +205 //// 053042 043 036 004 01
220830 3127N 07659W 9700 00285 0023 +211 //// 050041 041 034 002 01
220900 3126N 07658W 9697 00285 0020 +211 //// 046041 042 033 002 01
220930 3125N 07657W 9697 00281 0017 +210 //// 045041 044 032 004 01
221000 3124N 07655W 9696 00281 0013 +209 //// 045043 044 034 001 01
221030 3123N 07654W 9704 00267 0008 +214 //// 046041 042 033 001 01
$$

[Raebie]

Hey now. I just got to Hilton Head for the week. Go away Beryl.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Hey now. I just got to Hilton Head for the week. Go away Beryl.

Then you better send us some free water down to the coast when you get back to Charlotte. lol

[thundercam96]

I wonder how far south of Jacksonville Beryl will cross the coast... I wouldnt be shocked to see a landfall close to Daytona Beach

You Think It Will Go That Far South? I Live In Daytona Beach So I Would'nt Mind To See It. We Need The Rain.Even The Palm Trees That Sit Next To The Lakes Are Wilting And Yellowing

[Raebie]

Done. Just don't rain on my only vacation parade this year.

[christchurchguy]

What effect would the curve of the coastline have in this case since the gulf of campeche affects storms evolution, do the mountains make a difference in this case or are the situations similar

[LCfromFL]

Did I do this right?

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[cycloneye]

1000.8 mbs but is not the lowest pressure.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Aric Dunn]

What effect would the curve of the coastline have in this case since the gulf of campeche affects storms evolution, do the mountains make a difference in this case or are the situations similar

very minimal to nothing with this track.