ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

T.D. 5 in Atlantic
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 2, 2012 5:33 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Graphical tropical update:Tropics Watch

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE

- The disturbance in the tropical Atlantic was officially upgraded to tropical depression status late Wednesday afternoon. Since then the cyclone has not developed any further, in fact during Wednesday evening the convection became more ragged. Those sorts of fluctuations could continue for a while; ultimately there's a likelihood of T.D. 5 becoming Tropical Storm Ernesto.

- The timeline is for this system to arrive on Friday in the Lesser Antilles with heavy rain and gusty winds; exactly how much wind will depend on the nature and strength of the system at that point. Then it'll move between W and WNW across the eastern and central Caribbean this weekend, likely to a longitude abeam of Jamaica by Monday. Where it goes from there during the middle and latter part of next week will depend on if the subtropical ridge to the north of it is sufficiently solid and it continues into Mexico or Central America, or if there's enough of a weakness in the ridge to allow for it to take a more northward track in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Gustywind]

TD 5 continues its approach towards the Lesser Antilles.

[northjaxpro]

Oh my, the convection really has waned with TD 5 the past 12 hours and the syste looks very ragged. Also, the forward motion is a bit too fast, now 21 mph. This factor alone will inhibit this from organizing rapidly.

We will see how things fare today, but for the moment, TD#5 is not faring very well.

[Nimbus]

Earl 2004 was a weak TS but still damaged 34 roofs in Grenada and created winds of 49 MPH in St Lucia so even though the track fluctuations would make a big difference due to the 20 mph forward speed, if you are in the cone you need to heed the warnings.

[Gustywind]

Anyway, there's a TD somewhere east of the Lesser Antilles. Us in the islands must monitor carefully this system. That's not the best moment to let our guard down. Any changes in terms of intensity and track could have big implications, so let's wait and see, hoping that nothing too bad occur .

[Gustywind]

Given my untrained eyes on this loop , a new solid burst of convection is forming.

[Hurricane Alexis]

06z GFS considerably different from last few runs, now showing 5 making a run towards the northern Texas coastline as a hurricane.

[RL3AO]

This should get things going on here now.

[GCANE]

Looks like an ULL may be forming just to the NW of the COC at ~ 15N 57W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

If so, this will definitely hold back development.

[ronjon]

00z CMC turns TD 5 north up thru the eastern GOM for a FL panhandle hit. Still way out but models seem to be latching on to a weakness in the northern GOM expected in 5-7 days. 06Z GFS now near the Tx-La border area. This could be a big player for someone down the road along the GOM.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGGEMLoop.html

[ronjon]

06Z NOGAPS up the spline of the FL peninsula.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012080206&set=Tropical

[tolakram]

Latest



live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[tolakram]

Saved loop courtesy of http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/#self



Circulation appears rather vigorous in my amateur opinion.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Before I logged in here I was reading the latest NHC update from 5 AM on my phone and I thought I was going to see a deep convection free TD on the sat pix, but is not looking as bad as it did last night when I went to bed after looking at the first vis sat pixs this morning.
Not that I am surprised with some of the wording placed in it of possible degeneration back to a tropical wave because last night's intensity models were not aggressive at of any strengthening in their 24-48 forecast hrs.
Now let me investigate more what is going on with the system.

[NDG]

Latest scans from 4hrs ago still show a rather vigorous circulation.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 53.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED... AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 53.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[knotimpaired]

Anyway, there's a TD somewhere east of the Lesser Antilles. Us in the islands must monitor carefully this system. That's not the best moment to let our guard down. Any changes in terms of intensity and track could have big implications, so let's wait and see, hoping that nothing too bad occur .

Good morning Gusty,

I am curious about something. In Fort-de-France right now besides the Friendship, you have 5 Cargo vessels in Port. Is this normal or are you starting to get the ships into port because of TD5 for safe harbour?

K

[Gustywind]

Anyway, there's a TD somewhere east of the Lesser Antilles. Us in the islands must monitor carefully this system. That's not the best moment to let our guard down. Any changes in terms of intensity and track could have big implications, so let's wait and see, hoping that nothing too bad occur .

Good morning Gusty,

I am curious about something. In Fort-de-France right now besides the Friendship, you have 5 Cargo vessels in Port. Is this normal or are you starting to get the ships into port because of TD5 for safe harbour?

K

Hi Knotimpaired, that's an excellent question ! But unhopefully i have no answers about that, i'm curious too.

[NDG]

It seems to me, hard to tell a little bit with a such a short loop of vis sat pix, that the LLC has moved a little further south closer to the deeper convection, closer to 12.5N and not at 12.9N as the latest fix by the NHC.