ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Trough #2 is moving through the midwest at 216 hours and MAY NOT be Tampa Bay's friend???

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

At 240 hours...appears to bypass TB and is headed for the Big Bend area.

SFT

[ROCK]

240hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif


say hello to Charley from 2004.....969MB....bam that is deep...

[SeminoleWind]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

Whew glad this is land of make believe right now, YIKES

[Stormlover2012]

all about timing we have a long way to go

[ROCK]

might be la la land at 240hr.....but the consensus with the EURO and GFS is this is going to lay the smack down on some Floridians.......


actually the 12Z EURO run did skip this over into the SE GOM after hitting SFLO....so in the end its at the same position as this run....however this run is a lot strong.....

[meriland23]

Looks like 24o hrs would be a considerable cat 3 from GFS standpoint. I don't see how they think this. if it crosses over those islands, it will be as good as dead after that, there is not much open water or time afterward for it to regain ...

[SeminoleWind]

might be la la land at 240hr.....but the consensus with the EURO and GFS is this is going to lay the smack down on some Floridians.......

Yeah i can smell what you're cookin, and it aint good..lol

[ROCK]

Looks like 24o hrs would be a considerable cat 3 from GFS standpoint. I don't see how they think this. if it crosses over those islands, it will be as good as dead after that, there is not much open water or time afterward for it to regain ...

because if you watch the loop it doesnt tangle with any islands....except maybe a smidge of Cuba but thats it....

[meriland23]

Looks like 24o hrs would be a considerable cat 3 from GFS standpoint. I don't see how they think this. if it crosses over those islands, it will be as good as dead after that, there is not much open water or time afterward for it to regain ...

because if you watch the loop it doesnt tangle with any islands....except maybe a smidge of Cuba but thats it....

Wonder why that is? Thought it was supposed to cross over these islands.. now it seems to make it point to just run along the coast line.. hmm

[Meso]

It's path will change on each run, the islands aren't a huge land mass and a mere 50 miles difference in track can mean that it can miss them. The next run may go over more land, it may go over more ocean, it will vary between the model runs. It's why one cannot expect a single model run or even a few to mean that it's a definite, things are constantly changing and evolving between runs.

[Cyclenall]

240hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif


say hello to Charley from 2004.....969MB....bam that is deep...

Yep, Hurricane Charley 2.0 or maybe Dennis from 2005. That is the first time the Euro showed a powerful hurricane from 94L which is significant; going from a 1007 mb low to 969 mb is massive. Notice the path is over the hottest heat content in the whole basin and then into the hot GOM waters...that's why it showed RI during some of those frames. I would like to know if this is a new trend being set by King Euro.

Wonder why that is? Thought it was supposed to cross over these islands.. now it seems to make it point to just run along the coast line.. hmm

Your looking at the GFS, were talking about the Euro.

[somethingfunny]

00z model recap...

Canadian 8/21 00z


American 8/21 00z


European 8/21 00z


EURO is a few days slower than the other two.

The fact that they're this tightly clustered is very disconcerting to me.

Just to get all of this together in one post, here are the 12z runs from earlier. The agreement has definitely been coming together.

Canadian 8/20 12z


American 8/20 12z


European 8/20 12z

[SFLcane]

06z guidance from what is now TD9...

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

[GCANE]

Interesting, GFS is developing a very strong UL trough to the west of TD9/Isaac and the end of its run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Could be key in determining intensity of the TC.

If too close, would disrupt circulation and spin it down.

But, if just far enough away, it could enhance UL outflow and spin it up.

[KWT]

Those models are horrible Sflcane for the Caribbean but better for the states as it would be a weak storm after a track over Hispaniola and Cuba (unless it really bombs and does a Georges!)

[KWT]

06z GFS just to the south of Haiti, slow motion to the west as it skims the coast. Would likely see a weakening in that situation...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif

Curves north-westwards into Cuba by 120hrs and then WNW along the northern shore of Cuba.

Any track 50-60 miles to the south and it'll take a Gustav like track.

[Blown Away]

[KWT]

Models seem pretty keen to take it over Haiti now from the looks of things, though it wouldn't take much to get it further west and then that WNW/NW curve would take it towards the NW Caribbean rather than a long track overland.

[summersquall]

First visible...

Large systems are more likely to be drawn poleward which would increase congruence with Cleo as an analog.