ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[AJC3]

If Beryl keeps on her current heading she will miss her next forecast point to the southeast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02L/java-vis-long.html

Having looked at visible satellite imagery since sunrise, It's been pretty apparent all day that Beryl's motion has shown some pretty serious trochoidal wobbles about its mean motion, largely due to the uneven/sporadic nature of the convection surrounding its center. Hence, any extrapolation of a short term motion is liable to be erroneous.

[ozonepete]

What Are The Chances Of This System Moving At A More Southerly Pace?

They look pretty low right now. One thing you have to remember is that the models (and the NHC analysis of their output) have gotten really good on track forecasts over the last few years. VERY good actually. I have seen many very smart people second-guess the NHC on track at short range (1 or 2 days) and they are never better. It is intensity where there are still big problems, but not track.

So It Probably Wont Make Landfall Anywhere South Of St. Augustine?

I would doubt it at this time given the NHC track. None of the variables that govern its movement have changed today so I see no reason why it would move further south. Remember that wobbles in the track are just that, wobbles, as AJC3 just said, and over the long term they even out. So a wobble to south now will probably be evened out by a following wobble to the west.

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone. I hav e had a very busy day doing preps and conferring with people here in Jax as Beryl approaches.

Beryl has gotten just a tad stronger since this morning and is slowly moving southwest. It is looking as if Beryl may reach 60 or 65 mph level before landfall here on the tomorrow night.

Also, checking satellite imagery and observing Recon data, I think the transition to tropical is in the process of being done with Beryl right now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Jax: How are people doing down there?

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak has in last update fully tropical storm Beryl.

26/2345 UTC 31.0N 76.9W T2.5/2.5 BERYL -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[jdray]

Good evening everyone. I hav e had a very busy day doing preps and conferring with people here in Jax as Beryl approaches.

Beryl has gotten just a tad stronger since this morning and is slowly moving southwest. It is looking as if Beryl may reach 60 or 65 mph level before landfall here on the tomorrow night.

Also, checking satellite imagery and observing Recon data, I think the transition to tropical is in the process of being done with Beryl right now.

Yeah, it looks like it. NWS JAX has me at 40+ winds and 50+ gusts out here in Clay County with a 50MPH storm. Curious to see just where it comes in at as the winds will be a little higher. We need the rain, so happy. Wonder what the winds might do as the switch to TS happens. Was decently windy down in St Augustine today. They just switched me from a TS Warning to a TS Watch, so I'm guessing they might be having issues with strength or exact landfall, which is to be expected.

TS Warnings now cover:
..BAKER...CLAY...PUTNAM...WAYNE...BRANTLEY AND
CHARLTON. NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...FLAGLER...INLAND GLYNN...COASTAL
GLYNN...INLAND CAMDEN AND COASTAL CAMDEN.


TS Watches are now:
UNION...BRADFORD...BACON...APPLING...WARE...PIERCE AND CLINCH.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
814 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT BERYL IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAKER...CLAY AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WAYNE...BRANTLEY AND CHARLTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...BAKER...CLAY...PUTNAM...WAYNE...BRANTLEY AND
CHARLTON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...FLAGLER...INLAND GLYNN...COASTAL
GLYNN...INLAND CAMDEN AND COASTAL CAMDEN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
UNION...BRADFORD...BACON...APPLING...WARE...PIERCE AND CLINCH.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...COLUMBIA...
GILCHRIST...ALACHUA...MARION...COFFEE...JEFF DAVIS...ATKINSON AND
ECHOLS...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A
CONCERN.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.1N...LONGITUDE 76.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 270 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FL...OR ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF
BRUNSWICK GA. STORM MOTION WAS SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
SUB-TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AND ON
THIS TRACK WOULD APPROACH THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.................
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE AROUND 12 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[jdray]

Jax: How are people doing down there?

Some never pay attention to weather. TS Storm? What, no beach on Monday?
Lol..

This will be my son's first storm, other than Frances and Jeanne in mommy's belly. Had to explain stuff to him.

No nervousness, just cautious people for the most part that I have talked to.

[northjaxpro]

Jax: How are people doing down there?

Well, I must say this is kind of a wierd feeling because it has been so long since this area has had a landfalling tropical cyclone directly from the east. Thankfully this is not a Hurricane Dora sitiuation like this area had in 1964. But, a potential strong 60 mph tropical storm is enough to cause some significant problems here in Jax for sure. For the most part, people here that I have conferred with are taking Beryl seriously. The mayor here earlier today announced that Jax Beach for beachgoers the remainder of the holiday weekend.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Stays as SubTropical.

AL, 02, 2012052700, , BEST, 0, 310N, 769W, 45, 998, SS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Stephanie]

I'm just thrilled that these storms are beginning now and are not/have not been very severe but are providing much needed rain in drought stricken areas before the summer really settles in. It's almost the only way we've seen any drought areas get out of one.

[plazaglass]

Taking it seriously here in Atlantic Beach, FL (three blocks from ocean) but not in a panic. We gave the generator a test run just last week and removed a dying oak last winter, so hopefully we're good to go. Things should get interesting here tomorrow.

[CDO62]

00z Best Track

Stays as SubTropical.

AL, 02, 2012052700, , BEST, 0, 310N, 769W, 45, 998, SS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

I wonder why it stays classified as subtropical. Looking at the water vapor loop floater, its clearly ingesting air that is much moister than a few hours ago. It looks like the dry air is cut-off for now. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looking at the WV loop posted by CDO62, does anyone think it will make landfall beore tommorow evening? Also, put on SSTs. Still has to cross the warmer water.

[kiblet]

Desperately praying for rain here in Gainesville. Wildfires started again earlier this week, and the last thing we need is a windy day with no rain in sight. I'm not one to hope for tropical storms or hurricanes, but right now, I think we'll take anything.

[tropicwatch]

I don't think I have ever seen such a classical defined system so dry. If it continues SW towards Jacksonville I am sure more moisture will fill in. But Incredible looking none the less.

Tropicwatch

[thundercam96]

Desperately praying for rain here in Gainesville. Wildfires started again earlier this week, and the last thing we need is a windy day with no rain in sight. I'm not one to hope for tropical storms or hurricanes, but right now, I think we'll take anything.

Same Here, I Live In Daytona And There Has Almost Been An Endless Drought For Two Years Now, If We Didn't Get The Rain A Couple Of Weeks Ago, We Would Have Been On Fire. Last Year A 128 Acre Wildfire Came Within 1/4 Mile Of Our House, That Is Why I Am Hoping It Comes Closer To Daytona, But No Matter What, We Will Still Get Rain From This System

[ozonepete]

00z Best Track

Stays as SubTropical.

AL, 02, 2012052700, , BEST, 0, 310N, 769W, 45, 998, SS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

I wonder why it stays classified as subtropical. Looking at the water vapor loop floater, its clearly ingesting air that is much moister than a few hours ago. It looks like the dry air is cut-off for now. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Still has an upper level low (ULL) over it.

[LCfromFL]

The link below contains the JAX NWS Web Briefing from the 5 p.m. update. If the 11 pm briefing is posted before midnight, I'll post a link here.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBriefing/Tropical_Web_Briefing_052701_10h/index.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/
The 2nd link is to the JAX NWS site - the web briefing is linked at the top.

[ozonepete]

Desperately praying for rain here in Gainesville. Wildfires started again earlier this week, and the last thing we need is a windy day with no rain in sight. I'm not one to hope for tropical storms or hurricanes, but right now, I think we'll take anything.

Same Here, I Live In Daytona And There Has Almost Been An Endless Drought For Two Years Now, If We Didn't Get The Rain A Couple Of Weeks Ago, We Would Have Been On Fire. Last Year A 128 Acre Wildfire Came Within 1/4 Mile Of Our House, That Is Why I Am Hoping It Comes Closer To Daytona, But No Matter What, We Will Still Get Rain From This System

Hang in. When it stalls out the rain shield should expand and hopefully (and fairly likely) it will spread over you. Wishing you luck.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

Discussion from Dr. Jeff Masters earlier today doesn't sound too optimistic about this being a drought-buster. That said, even a few inches of rain would at least lower the immeidate fire threat in your area...

"As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain.

A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane.

There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2105

Desperately praying for rain here in Gainesville. Wildfires started again earlier this week, and the last thing we need is a windy day with no rain in sight. I'm not one to hope for tropical storms or hurricanes, but right now, I think we'll take anything.

Same Here, I Live In Daytona And There Has Almost Been An Endless Drought For Two Years Now, If We Didn't Get The Rain A Couple Of Weeks Ago, We Would Have Been On Fire. Last Year A 128 Acre Wildfire Came Within 1/4 Mile Of Our House, That Is Why I Am Hoping It Comes Closer To Daytona, But No Matter What, We Will Still Get Rain From This System