ATL: SANDY - Models

[pricetag56]

Wow. I hope the new Euro doesnt pan out. Its a lot stronger!!! Making the turn towards nyc with 121kt 850mb winds

What would that translate too? I converted the 121 knots to mph and it said 139 mph?????? That can't be right? Is it?

That would be extroadinary, a storm that large with category 4 winds, even at 850mb that would be remarkable if that verified!

[sweetpea]

That's at 850mb height level. I think it converts to around 90mph surface level but a pro met or someone with more experience would have to convert it more accurate for you.

Thank you, this storm has me scared to death. Have a ton of family up there in NY and NJ. Very worried about what this will do.

[brunota2003]

Wow. I hope the new Euro doesnt pan out. Its a lot stronger!!! Making the turn towards nyc with 121kt 850mb winds

What would that translate too? I converted the 121 knots to mph and it said 139 mph?????? That can't be right? Is it?

No, that's correct. Its at the 850mb level though, so there would be a reduction involved in calculating surface winds. I'm not sure exactly what it is, but I'm sure someone on here knows.

Using 60%, 120 knots comes out to about 72 knots on the surface. 70% is 84 knots. Not sure if those would be representative, but it gives you an idea. Another issue is that as you go higher in those high rise buildings, the closer to those high winds you get. Look at what Wilma did to the high rises in Miami as an example. Many buildings will lose most, if not all, of their glass in the upper levels...which then poses a falling/flying glass hazard for other buildings and people!

[cycloneye]

Look how tight consensus are the vast majority of the models on landfall.

[sweetpea]

What would that translate too? I converted the 121 knots to mph and it said 139 mph?????? That can't be right? Is it?[/quote]
No, that's correct. Its at the 850mb level though, so there would be a reduction involved in calculating surface winds. I'm not sure exactly what it is, but I'm sure someone on here knows.[/quote]
Using 60%, 120 knots comes out to about 72 knots on the surface. 70% is 84 knots. Not sure if those would be representative, but it gives you an idea. Another issue is that as you go higher in those high rise buildings, the closer to those high winds you get. Look at what Wilma did to the high rises in Miami as an example. Many buildings will lose most, if not all, of their glass in the upper levels...which then poses a falling/flying glass hazard for other buildings and people![/quote]

Thank you for the info!

[Hogweed]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I note though that the 18z GFS has lowest pressure at 964.1 right now but the latest measured is 951.

[GCANE]

WeatherBELL model graphics wide-open for duration of Hurricane

Thanks Dr Maue

http://models.weatherbell.com/

[GCANE]

NAM Radar showing rain & snow

http://models.weatherbell.com/hires/201 ... t_loop.php

[HurrMark]

00Z GFS is even quicker with landfall...perhaps 6 PM.

[IntheEye]

00Z GFS is even quicker with landfall...perhaps 6 PM.

Has the track shifted or is it about the same place as earlier?

[HurrMark]

00Z GFS is even quicker with landfall...perhaps 6 PM.

Has the track shifted or is it about the same place as earlier?

About the same...maybe 5 miles south of 12Z. But the speed is greater.

[IntheEye]

Look how tight consensus are the vast majority of the models on landfall.

Could someone keep posting the most recent sfwmd model plots as they come out?
I can't figure it out yet

[artist]

[GCANE]

Off scale helicity forecast this afternoon, NJ to MA

Watch out for tornadoes

http://models.weatherbell.com/rap/20121 ... s_loop.php

[GCANE]

Latest NCEP Snow-Fall Totals Forecast

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/20121 ... _loop6.php

[IntheEye]

What do the latest GFS and EURO suggest for landfall location and timing. Let's please keep posting graphics please. I'm not sure where they are found

I think this is important as winds will be significant, especially in a 150 mile radius around Sandy's center...sustained hurricane force. NYC is forecast to be on the northern fringe at the moment. Any more shifts south and the city could be spared from hurricane force sustained winds (not from surge though). Worst case scenario is if Sandy makes landfall farther north (Central NJ coast) as surge AND winds will be even worse

[tolakram]

Easiest to use model page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Euro


GFS


CMC

[artist]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
click on storm 18 for latest when new models have been run

[IntheEye]

Thanks Mark. So GFS/CMC show central to upper NJ coast landfall and Euro showing Atlantic City landfall. NHC going for extreme southern NJ it looks like.

In response to clipper35's (who shares my confusion) question: "ozone nice map but you have that center of sandy that far north into nj most forcasts are now saying southern new jersey yoy know something that we dont?"

I have said since Thursday evening, given the model output, the center comes ashore between Long Beach Island and Sandy Hook. But landfall anywhere from Atlantic City northward to NYC will be devastating at the coast from central Jersey to most of Long Island. Just does not look very hopeful.

-OzonePete


Exact landfall location is important for cities further north or south like Richmond,VA or Albany,NY which may escape the significant damaging sustained winds or very high gusts (70+)

[cycloneye]

Kudos to the models. It has been incredible the precision that the models GFS and ECMWF performed with this system from many days ago with both track and intensity.