EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

When does it claim 81 knots? Christmas?

Yeah I know. It has taken an eternity to organize,but maybe,maybe it may be starting to consolidate.

[cycloneye]

The latest dvorak data.

19/2345 UTC 10.1N 99.1W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Cyclenall]

When does it claim 81 knots? Christmas?

Yeah its Christmas alright...in my mind .

Now that 92E has good solid convection, the LLC is now lacking, back and forth. I think if that deeper convection continues to the south like that, the low will reform under it and change all the tracks all over again. What the BAMS is showing is pretty interesting .

Who would have thought that TS Alberto in the Atlantic would form before TS Bud (92E) in the Epac? Anyone claiming such before now would be laughed off the forums. The phrase, "Anything can Happen" rings so true for the tropics still.

[cycloneye]

Is taking forever for this thing to do something.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N98W IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SKEWED BETWEEN 120 NM AND 330 NM IN THE SW
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW EXCEPT TO 510 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. BOTH
THE 0424 UTC ASCAT AND 0550 UTC OSCAT PASSES SAW 20 KT WINDS S
OF THE LOW AND THE 0300 UTC JASON1 PASS NOTED SEAS TO 8 FT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF
THIS LOW DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

EP, 92, 2012052012, , BEST, 0, 90N, 983W, 25, 1006, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest


Much more south in latitude than anytime before. That may help consolidate the convection that is mainly south of 10N.

[Cyclenall]

Much more south in latitude than anytime before. That may help consolidate the convection that is mainly south of 10N.

That's great, a plan is coming together for future Bud. It looked like an arc for too long now.

The Euro is becoming increasing bullish with 92E's strength taking it to major status by the looks of it. It's hard to tell overall because its making it into a total micro-cane. It sends it towards Mexico. I see a deep convection cluster to the east of it.

[Yellow Evan]

go 92E!

[cycloneye]

Remains at 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Darn it. C'mon 92E.

[cycloneye]

The ATCF file for 92E keeps growing as a invest without being a TC. Is in the same position (9.0N-98.3W) at this 18z Best Track as the 12z one.

EP, 92, 2012052018, , BEST, 0, 90N, 983W, 25, 1006, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has a strong Hurricane in 120 hours making landfall in the Mexican Riviera coast.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[Yellow Evan]

Ouch. Hope it does not affect land.

[Cyclenall]

Ouch. Hope it does not affect land.

The vast majority of model guidance has been showing this hitting Mexico for around a week, the chances of this not hitting or affecting Mexico is puny.

Visible satellite imagery suggests 92E is quickly becoming better organized...all of a sudden...after stalling for so long. That long arc band is fading and new convection is not only blowing up near/at the center, but spiraling and strongly rotating. If the center is right under that spin, this could rapidly form into TD2-E!!! The organization was sort of there but it just needed convection plus it doesn't look like the wind shear is as bad now. If I was giving a % for next 48 hours, it would be now 60% and if this continues, 70% at 8:00 pm EDT.



http://www.freeimagehosting.net/3orem

[cycloneye]

A closer view of 92E than what my friend Cyclenall posted shows much improved organization. I wont be surprised if NHC goes Code Red on next TWO at 5 PM PDT or on the 11 PM PDT one.

[cycloneye]

Code Red- 60%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Kingarabian]

It's @ 60% now.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wont be surprised if NHC goes Code Red on next TWO at 5 PM PDT or on the 11 PM PDT

Well,I wasn't surprised that they quickly released the STWO as this is organizing fast. But in a serious way,those who live in the Mexican Riviera must start preparations because it looks like this system will be the first Hurricane of the EPAC season with the enviromental conditions favorable ahead.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Finally! We're actually getting somewhere.

[Yellow Evan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wont be surprised if NHC goes Code Red on next TWO at 5 PM PDT or on the 11 PM PDT

Well,I wasn't surprised that they quickly released the STWO as this is organizing fast. But in a serious way,those who live in the Mexican Riviera must start preparations because it looks like this system will be the first Hurricane of the EPAC season with the enviromental conditions favorable ahead.

Agreed, let's hope for the best, but expect the worst.