ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

chances of this coming to jacksonville fl as a tropical storm is what?

pretty low. but the chances of it getting close enough to bring wind a rain is quite good.

[Aric Dunn]

There is also a lot of cold aloft. dont think its fully tropical atm. Also bunch of lightning near the center.

[brunota2003]

That 75 knots is at the 900 millibar level...not the surface.

Just taking a guess, surface winds would probably be closer to 55 or 60 knots. A strong TS making landfall in eastern NC tomorrow morning.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If it is designated, it will be declared tropical according to the last TWO. That recent convective blow up pretty much signified it began transitioning to a warm core system.

[northjaxpro]

chances of this coming to jacksonville fl as a tropical storm is what?

pretty low. but the chances of it getting close enough to bring wind a rain is quite good.

Agree. This system will not get any closer than 150 miles off the coast of Jacksonville. Little impact from 93L here except for increasing swells along the coast Drier air in behind 93L is being pulled into Jax area. I think areas from Hilton Head, SC and points north along the coast will have a good chance to see wind and rain from the system before it finally gets picked up to the northeast beginning late tomorrow into Monday.

[brunota2003]

Any ideas on track for this if it were to develop? Some models I've seen carry it out to sea while others begin to drift it north later tonight and move it inland between MHX and ILM. Thoughts?

WRF brings a weak hurricane into NC tomorrow morning.

http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/spc2012051900/spcc_uv900.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That 75 knots is at 900 millibars...wouldn't that be closer to 55 or 60 knots at the surface?

[hurricanefloyd5]

what about orlando fl could I be affected by this here in orlando

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think winds at the center may actually be closer to 35 or 40 knots currently. Buoy 41013 (the one measuring the 29 knot winds for two straight hours earlier) was about 50 miles away from the "center" of the storm, and outside the areas of deepest convection and in an almost rain free zone to the north of the center when it measured those winds. Granted, the system may not be purely tropical (thus the strongest winds may occur well away from the center), but I still believe winds are higher near the center in the heavier rain (the deeper storms being able to transport down the stronger winds more effectively).

[northjaxpro]

what about orlando fl could I be affected by this here in orlando

No.

[northjaxpro]

Some of the outer rain bands are approaching the SC coast

[Duddy]

what about orlando fl could I be affected by this here in orlando

No.

LOL

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is the discussion of 93L by Dr Jeff Masters.

A hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed in the waters off the coast of South Carolina, about 120 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Residents along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast should pay attention to 93L, as it has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm and hit the coast on Sunday or Monday, with North Carolina at highest risk. NHC designated this system Invest 93L Saturday morning. Wind shear is a moderate 20 knots over 93L, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, inhibiting development. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough that 93L has a decent chance of developing into the Atlantic's first tropical depression. Since 93L is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Conversely, the storm's small size and favorable positioning over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream mean it is also capable of suddenly organizing, and it would not be surprise to see 93L become Tropical Storm Alberto by Sunday. NHC is giving 92L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble resolving it, and we don't have very good forecasts of the storm right now. Steering currents are weak, and I expect 93L will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. Heavy rain showers from 93L are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. These showers will probably move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye, and winds are probably near 35 - 40 mph in the heaviest rain squalls near the center.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass. Good barbs of TS strengh.

[senorpepr]

Convection persisting. Looking at nearby ship reports, looks like the wind radii are expanded a bit:

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think winds at the center may actually be closer to 35 or 40 knots currently. Buoy 41013 (the one measuring the 29 knot winds for two straight hours earlier) was about 50 miles away from the "center" of the storm, and outside the areas of deepest convection and in an almost rain free zone to the north of the center when it measured those winds. Granted, the system may not be purely tropical (thus the strongest winds may occur well away from the center), but I still believe winds are higher near the center in the heavier rain (the deeper storms being able to transport down the stronger winds more effectively).

That ASCAT pass would actually support my guessimate. The purple coloring is the beginning of the 40 knot range, and it fits the timeframe (1533 UTC).

[bg1]

ASCAT pass. Good barbs of TS strengh.

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/7678/wmbds74.png

That doesn't look like a closed low on that pass.

This will be interesting to watch, anyway. Went from no activity in the Atlantic to 50%.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Didn't expect this so soon. lol Could this be a "Here we go Wilmington" time?

[wxman57]

I'd say closer to 100% now. It's clearly at least a TD and most likely a TS right now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Do you think it's decoupled, Wx?

[Duddy]

Didn't expect this so soon. lol Could this be a "Here we go Wilmington" time?

Get ready! Here we go!