WTPQ31 PGUM 130336
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052012
200 PM CHST WED JUN 13 2012
...TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL APPROACHING ULITHI...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS...ULITHI AND
YAP IN YAP STATE.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.0 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
25 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
405 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH...AND WILL PASS VERY
CLOSE TO ULITHI THIS AFTERNOON. GUCHOL IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT FROM THE
CENTER UP TO 25 MILES.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...9.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 140.0
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
800 PM THIS EVENING.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 140.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.3N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 11.1N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.8N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.9N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.8N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 140.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122321Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM WHICH
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
SLIGHT PULL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO
THE NORTH. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES A
SUBSIDENT, DRY REGION TO THE NORTHWEST IS WEAKENING. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE STR WEAKENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH
OF CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT TROUGH TAU 72;
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING STR AND TURN MORE POLEWARD. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN
MAKING THE FASTEST TURN POLEWARD SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. UKMO AND
GFS MAINTAIN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND SLOWLY TURN THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RECURVATURE TIMING AND
POSITION DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HOWEVER,
THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A RECURVATURE SCENARIO BASED ON THE
DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS GUCHOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND AS OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
