ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[MGC]

Just looking at the vis sat loop....low level circulation appears to be moving off the north coast of the Yucatan. Shear looks to be dropping fast over the southern GOM. 96L could ramp up quickly as it clears land.....MGC

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram: added disclaimer

[drezee]

Just too many variables. still no defined center and until that happens we just wont know. if it consolidates farther east today where all the convection is than the models are initializing about 200 off. that changes a lot

Make sure the storm2K servers fans are clean and OS' patched...there will be a ton of traffic on the site over the next week...even a CAT1 in the gulf might bring too many users on the site...

I think the Euro solution keeps this thing in the gulf for a week...a named system for over 5 days by the looks of it

[ozonepete]

Shear will not be a big problem.

SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 2 11 1 2 13 14 15 14 13


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12062 ... _ships.txt

oh man that is not good....

Yeah, conditions look good for something pretty big. Man this is just a crazy start to the season.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

A reminder to the members to include our disclaimer if you are going to make a forecast or statement,thanks for your cooperation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bvigal]

Just too many variables. still no defined center and until that happens we just wont know. if it consolidates farther east today where all the convection is than the models are initializing about 200 off. that changes a lot

You are soooo right, Aric. This system could do almost anything, it's all a matter of timing, amidst too many variables right now. Let a center form, then models might make some sense. Does anyone doubt why NHC waited to start running these????

[Dave]

A reminder to the members to include our disclaimer if you are going to make a forecast or statement,thanks for your cooperation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL


I dont think water temps will be a problem...

[CrazyC83]

A monsoonal-like storm would also have much lower winds relative to its pressure, yet would be huge and potentially result in severe flooding...

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

[cycloneye]

Spagetti.

[USTropics]

I wouldn't get too caught up in these recent model runs. For those of us who have been following this for the past week or so, we've seen shifts as far west as Mexico, towards the central GOM states, and as far east as booking it through Florida and out to sea. Hence the reason for

"AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND"

Where the actual LLC takes form at will go a long ways to where this storm will end up. To reiterate what Aric just stated, if initialization is more north and/or east you’re looking at a much more influenced system by the trough. Also if the trough is more pronounced as in previous runs it will have more of an impact on this potential system. A lot of variables still to be determined and now with an invest tag, the future model runs will bring things into better perspective.

[GCANE]

TRMM spotted a Hot Tower just off the western tip of Cuba

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/A ... W.59pc.jpg

[cycloneye]

A monsoonal-like storm would also have much lower winds relative to its pressure, yet would be huge and potentially result in severe flooding...

And more problematic is the slow movement.

[tolakram]

Latest

[Nimbus]

The center of circulation is just coming off the northern coast of the Yucatan but most of the convection is blowing up over near Cozumel. Hope it stays kind of disorganized before landfall.

[Ntxw]

A monsoonal-like storm would also have much lower winds relative to its pressure, yet would be huge and potentially result in severe flooding...

And more problematic is the slow movement.

The Euro depicted this well. The storm cuts into the ridge resulting in little if any movement with no steering inland. When the next trough picks it up it will move over areas again that has already been rained on. This is if it heads west.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Needs to wrap convection around.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

To be honest, if this were late October, I would be worried for Florida. Again the track is very uncertain and can change quite a bit, but at this point in the summer it is very rare to have a trough strong enough
to send a system into Florida. The latest ECMWF, though it is just one run, and has been shifting, has confirmed my gut feeling. It shows that the trough will not be strong enough to influence the system, in part because of the system being in the S. GOM and not all that strong to begin with. Thus a gradual
westerly track long-term makes sense. Once in the central GOM shear will be low, there will be lots of moisture, and it will likely strengthen potentially to a hurricane. It is too early to tell whether it goes to TX, Mexico, or somewhere else in the W. GOM.

With that said, I can't rule out Florida because it is 6-7 days away. Actually, I can't rule out anywhere along the gulf at this time.
The models can change drastically so Do Not Let Your Guard Down if you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast.

[ROCK]

I wouldn't get too caught up in these recent model runs. For those of us who have been following this for the past week or so, we've seen shifts as far west as Mexico, towards the central GOM states, and as far east as booking it through Florida and out to sea. Hence the reason for

"AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND"

Where the actual LLC takes form at will go a long ways to where this storm will end up. To reiterate what Aric just stated, if initialization is more north and/or east you’re looking at a much more influenced system by the trough. Also if the trough is more pronounced as in previous runs it will have more of an impact on this potential system. A lot of variables still to be determined and now with an invest tag, the future model runs will bring things into better perspective.

Now I get what you are saying and I agree but when a reliable EURO flips over to a global that has been showing the same run over and over again you have to take something away from that....IKE is a prime example...the EURO saw the flip first and others followed. Looks like this is whats happening here....though RGV did say the UKMET showed this scenario first and I know Dr Masters loves the UKMET...

[GCANE]

That ULL at 28N 70W is supporting a very nice poleward outflow channel.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It appears to be deepening as well which in turn is enhancing UL outflow.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Also, an equatorward outflow channel in place as well.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Most likely will see more Hot Towers fire up and anti-cyclone stack over the LLC. In fact it is pretty close already.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=