ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Alright, here’s my track. I’m not too bullish on intensity, so I stop at Cat2 strength. Shifted west on the ground it stays weak and doesn’t become a hurricane before 55W. Anyone want to show their tracks?
http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/2840/td13.png

Shallow BAM (BAMS) keeps it east of 55W. You're even west of CLIPPER:

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I am more of a fan of this missing the trough and then strengthening IMO.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[greenkat]

Looks to me like it's already a TD... pretty sure NHC will upgrade it at 11:00 advisory.

[bamajammer4eva]

They Cancelled it-still 91L

14m Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Renumbering only a prelim step, does not guarantee advisories. MT @Eyestorm_Eric: @NHCDirector Why "invest_RENUMBER_al142012..." deleted?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track. Let's see if they renumber it or not in this 00z update.

AL, 91, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 157N, 410W, 30, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Fego]

Almost there.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 91L.INVEST,

[Extratropical94]

Remains unchanged:

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES...CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Fego]

I guess a few more hours, with no land to threat, is not problem at all. 5:00 am is a sure bet.

[Florida1118]

I guess a few more hours, with no land to threat, is not problem at all. 5:00 am is a sure bet.

Nothing at 5am. Wonder what is holding them back from upgrading...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Too little thunderstorm activity.

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
ADVISORIES ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It's got to be Nadine. Looking at vis. loop. It's definitely a depression or storm. I bet Nadine.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[thetraveler]

She looks a little nekkid but definitely has the spin. Looks like a little wobble to the north in the last 3 frames of the above satelite images

[HenkL]

Best track at 12Z:

AL, 14, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 160N, 426W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[AnnularCane]

TD now official, if anyone's interested.

[wxman57]

TD now official, if anyone's interested.

Doesn't appear so.

[Macrocane]

I'm interested exposed center, but at least looks healthy and is surrounded by some convection. Intensity could be interesting given how hard it has been to forectast it this year.

[WeatherGuesser]

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUT NOT A THREAT TO LAND...

11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 16.3°N 43.1°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[wxman57]

It appears that the Global Hawk took off from Wallops Island, VA this morning enroute TD 14 to drop a number of dropsondes:

http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2012/09/11 ... 1-12-2012/