ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, I don't know how this can make a run at a tropical storm today since the NHC's latest discussion stated that the shear suppose to be remain high for the next day or two...

[tolakram]

Seems like the surface circulation is leaving the mid level circulation behind.

I think that's a great observation. Looks like center will be exposed soon. How many times have we seen this as the low level flow picks up near the dead zone?

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 021431
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 54.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT45 KNHC 021436
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF
INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING. NOAA BUOY 41040...TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER...REPORTED 31 KT WINDS. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT
PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN
THE CYCLONE...SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE 1200
UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD SHOWED A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY JET
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE
AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SWIFT 17 KT. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN A
WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED. THIS IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.0N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.8N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 14.1N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.7N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.7N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 18.5N 82.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 54.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hmmm...set up next week will be very interesting for the Gulf if the future Ernesto can make it thorugh the next 48 hrs and continue to consolidate. A strong ridge seems to hold up until mid next week, and then it retreats a bit to the East as a trouch falls in across the middle of the country. It looks like there will be a slight weakness in the ridge as a result of that encroaching trough, and depending on how deep it comes down and its angle/positioning, that could greatly impact the final direction of probable Ernesto for the end of next week/the weekend.
If Ernesto stays weak, the path will remain on the southern side of the current model guidance, and will likely not be impacted at all by those developments to the north, and simply ride into the Yucatan and be Mexico bound, and possibly emerge into the southern BOC before continuing into Mexico or extreme southern Texas.
But if Ernesto slowly ramps up and is a stronger storm and takes a more northerly route to end up just south of Cuba or the Caymans, then a recurve to the North is more likely at that point, as it could be in a position to take advantage of a weakness and be swung to the NW or N. Forward speed then becomes critical for final destination, as a slow mover will eventually be pushed in a more westernly direction sooner as the ridge builds back in. A faster mover will continue more northerly over more water until the returning ridge could turn it towards the west. Impact could be anywhere along the northern gulf, with high SST's and additional strengthening likely.
However, an early Ernesto getting too strong too soon could send him on the suicide path over the mountainous island of Hispanola while the ridge is still strong, and make him much weaker, and unable to fully take advantage of any temporary weakness that may develop. In that weakened state, his path would return to a more westerly route. That could either then allow slow restrengthening as he continues on a more w to wnw path towards the gulf through the straits of Florida if he can avoid Cuba entirely. -but like starting over again as a weak storm/depression from that point forward, but with a returning building ridge that would likely push the storm even further west after getting into the southern gulf (possibly north texas bound). However, if he gets put into traveling Cuba lengthwise, then little would remain but an open wave by the time he made it through the island.
So the true test is how strong is it going to get in the short term, to see where it will be in about 5 days...either slowly strengthening south of Cuba, being weak much further south traversing the southern caribbean, or being pretty strong but taking aim at Hispanola.
My best guess now is that the storm will steadily ramp up and be a hurricane 2 near the Caymans, heading wnw/nw. It will be heading through the yucatan channel as it will feel the slight weakness developing to the north as it slowly rounds the southwestern edge of the retreating ridge and start a more northern route. It will scare the northern gulf coast from panhandle to texas, but the returning building ridge will ultimately move it into northern texas by next Sunday.
TOTALLY my guess this early in the game!!! But that's how I'm thinking about it.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chrisjslucia]

It appears to me that TD5 is beginning to acquire the classic shape of a developing system and the area of associated convection is expanding. Or could it be just that my imagination's in overdrive because Barbados is under a TS watch?

I hope for Barbados and for St Lucia (and for Cropover) that it is your imagination!

[ConvergenceZone]

Seems like the surface circulation is leaving the mid level circulation behind.

I think that's a great observation. Looks like center will be exposed soon. How many times have we seen this as the low level flow picks up near the dead zone?

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/8553/zztempq.jpg

that's a good point...I think we will have an open wave soon, but I also believe that once it gets into the W Carib that enough of the wave will be left that it can once again regenerate....

[Dave]

I'm on Cycloneye....eating lunch early. lol

[Stormcenter]

Let's see what the models show on Monday and then I'll get concerned or relaxed. IMO

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hmmm, the speed has got to slow down a bit for any results I projected.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This is a situation that is developing prior to the weekend, off the radar for most as it is still far away and not developed much yet. Folks don't watch the news over the weekend, so we'll probably see a huge jump in participation come Monday when folks start watching the news and suddenly see a storm threatening the gulf. Watch the page count multiply then!

[cycloneye]

I'm on Cycloneye....eating lunch early. lol

Ok very good.

[meteortheologist]

i am late to this thread but are there any resources predicting potential landfall locations yet? tia.

[ConvergenceZone]

i am late to this thread but are there any resources predicting potential landfall locations yet? tia.

We don't even know if it's going to survive yet....

[Blown Away]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html#picture
can someone explain this why is cmc showing east coast

CMC - Consistently moving TD5 moving towards N Florida.
Nogaps - Consistently moving TD5 through NE Caribbean and recurve.
GFS - Consistently moving TD5 through Caribbean towards Yucatan, big shift on 06z moving towards N Gulf Coast from Mex/BOC longrange. NHC likes GFS so generally this model will give an idea where the NHC will put the track. I'm curious for future GFS runs to see if the right shifts continue.

[tolakram]

11 AM discussion posted.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 021436
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF
INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING. NOAA BUOY 41040...TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER...REPORTED 31 KT WINDS. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT
PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN
THE CYCLONE...SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE 1200
UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD SHOWED A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY JET
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE
AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SWIFT 17 KT. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN A
WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED. THIS IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.0N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.8N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 14.1N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.7N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.7N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 18.5N 82.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[meteortheologist]

i am late to this thread but are there any resources predicting potential landfall locations yet? tia.

We don't even know if it's going to survive yet....

right im looking forward to even potential wobble, just curious if anybody has even thrown out a theory

[RL3AO]

right im looking forward to even potential wobble, just curious if anybody has even thrown out a theory

Most of us we're thinking Yucatan then into Mexico. However a few of the past models are hinting at a possible US threat. Like someone else said lets see if it can survive the next two days.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

i am late to this thread but are there any resources predicting potential landfall locations yet? tia.

We don't even know if it's going to survive yet....

right im looking forward to even potential wobble, just curious if anybody has even thrown out a theory

Did you look at the NHC site and their track? No better source.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

[CrazyC83]

Based on that buoy, it might be a tropical storm, if it didn't catch the strongest winds. Still, it looks horrible this morning, so it will likely not be much for the Windwards at least.