ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Cleo's track certainly is a good looking analog for the first part of the track, I don't think TD9 will curve up so sharply through Cuba, I think it'll be a touch further west and a more gentle curve up through say central Cuba, just into the Gulf.

Frankly this is a tough call however, such small differences in track will lead to a massive change in strength down the line.

If 00Z GFS or some approximation of it verifies(Cleo 2.0), it will arrive on the same day!...08/27...48 years later...but we will certainly see considerable fine tuning with the timing and strength of the all important short-wave. FWIW, the most interesting feature from a modelling perspective will be the evolution of the Euro. Currently, it is somethng of a left outlier on days 4 and 5.However, the big question for Fla is which model, the GFS or Euro, better reflects the timing and depth of the shortwave and the ridging still extant as the storm approaches 80deg W. This certainly is the most significant threat to the tri-county area(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) since 2004...Rich

Very true, ECM keeps it weaker getting it further west and enough ridging over the Peninsula into the Bahamas to put it in the Gulf. Quite plausible.

[tolakram]

Latest

[knotimpaired]

I'm with Luis.

We already have done all of the major moving and have gotten the hurricane shutters out.

The trouble is until the hurricane hunters get out there, it is all up in the air of how close it will be.

Just imagine in your mind this. Sleeping on your first floor with 3 dogs, 5 cats and your husband.

Oh the joy.

[cycloneye]

Still a TD.

12z Best Track

AL, 09, 2012082112, , BEST, 0, 151N, 520W, 30, 1007, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Moving a little south of due west.

LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 52.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

[Blown Away]

Tracks of storms passing through or just north of Hispaniola.


Tracks of storms moving along TD's projected path.

Historically a few miles north or south of Hispaniola makes a big difference with regards to historical tracks! 21 impacts on the Florida peninsula!

[amawea]

I'm with Luis.

We already have done all of the major moving and have gotten the hurricane shutters out.

The trouble is until the hurricane hunters get out there, it is all up in the air of how close it will be.

Just imagine in your mind this. Sleeping on your first floor with 3 dogs, 5 cats and your husband.

Oh the joy.

Looks like your husband has to go. Jk, You guys stay safe.

[sandyb]

DISCUSSION: We are stuck in a persistent weather pattern for the middle of this week. We have a front stalled out across eastern Carolina with a rich feed of moisture streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico and up along the eastern seaboard. At the jet stream level we are stuck with a trough over the eastern U.S. with pockets of cool air rotating through this eastern trough. For us that means these upper level shortwaves will generate several waves of low pressure which will move across eastern Carolina the next 36 to 48 hours. With that rich feed of moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, heavy downpours and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats we need to alert you to. But finally by the weekend the upper trough lifts out and we see sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: The tropics have become active and I’m looking at a window between now and the 1st week in September where we’ll see several storms become named and headed into Labor Day there could be a threat to the eastern U.S. coast. What had been inhibiting development so far this summer could relax briefly during this window.


The first concern is Tropical Depression Nine. It was upgraded early this morning and is west of the islands. It will be strengthening and tracking through the islands this weekend. There are 3 paths this storm could take. One would be west of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The second would be into Florida. But the third path would take the storm up east of Florida along the east coast before making landfall here in the Carolinas the middle of next week. As of now I am highlighting this option as the most likely path. This means a major threat for us here in eastern Carolina Wednesday/Thursday next week. There are still many factors involved in the final path of this storm, the first being how it negotiates the island. But as of now I’m very concerned about this being a threat to us in Eastern Carolina.

from our local weather

[tolakram]

A quick overview of the Storm2K disclaimer policies for those not familiar with them. I know I've tolerated disclaimers in signatures but this practice is in violation of our rules and will need to end.

viewtopic.php?f=37&t=87189

Storm2k.org policy on posting amateur forecasts.. If you post a forecast in any forum it MUST be preceded by the following..

Quote:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If a forecast is made without using the disclaimer we will add it for you and send a reminder PM.. If it is "forgotten" repeatedly your posts will be removed, and your membership with storm2k may be removed as well.. This is for the safety of everyone. Please abide by it.

[blp]

For those that are getting anxious see the graphic below. The NHC's 2nd forecast on Irene had S.FLA in the crosshairs and it ended up going through the bahamas. I am not implying anything other than it is still too early to be certain.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[JPmia]

Tracks of storms passing through or just north of Hispaniola.


Tracks of storms moving along TD's projected path.

Historically a few miles north or south of Hispaniola makes a big difference with regards to historical tracks! 21 impacts on the Florida peninsula!

I notice also that most either clip the east coast of Florida and go up toward NC or go south of FL and into the Gulf.. not many do what both the GFS and the Euro are currently forecasting, which tells me we of course will see more shifts in the models.. my guess would be more shifts to the west as they get a better handle on the timing of the weakness and the high pressure.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[adam0983]

Does anyone see Tropical Depression nine developing into a catergory 3 or 4 Hurricane?

[Blown Away]

Does anyone see Tropical Depression nine developing into a catergory 3 or 4 Hurricane?

IMO, if TD9 can avoid the big islands, the models seem to think conditions will be good to strengthen. Could be a biggie IMO!

[JPmia]

By the way.. I encourage the 250 or so guests viewing our forum to become members and join in the conversation. It is free and very informative!

[knotimpaired]

For those that are getting anxious see the graphic below. The NHC's 2nd forecast on Irene had S.FLA in the crosshairs and it ended up going through the bahamas. I am not implying anything other than it is still too early to be certain.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Did someone make a huge mistake on this chart? We are expecting the storm late wednesday to thursday? Who is fooling who here?

[Nikki]

For those that are getting anxious see the graphic below. The NHC's 2nd forecast on Irene had S.FLA in the crosshairs and it ended up going through the bahamas. I am not implying anything other than it is still too early to be certain.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Did someone make a huge mistake on this chart? We are expecting the storm late wednesday to thursday? Who is fooling who here?

The poster is only using this as a reference this is for Irene from last year.

[tolakram]

^^ The above chart is from the past, for Irene.

[knotimpaired]

Thank you. I thought I was getting nuts in my old age.

Luis can back me up on Irene. It played havoc here and it was months before our downed trees could be removed.

[Jevo]

Well I figure I may as well get this out of the way.. because someone is going to do it sooner or later.

(Disclaimer: I know I know the theory is wrong just as many times as it's right, but makes for good food for thought)

Looks like the Hebert Box is in play..



What is the Hebert Box you say.. well let me answer you

An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.

Examples include unnamed hurricanes in 1926, 1928, 1933, and 1935, as well as the major hurricanes Donna and Betsy, all of which came through an Hebert Box. Collectively these storms killed more than 2,000 people in Florida. Conversely, storms such as the major hurricanes Floyd and Gert in 1999, which both were headed for Florida at one point, missed the Hebert Boxes and turned away from Florida at the last minute.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

[adam0983]

This storm reminds a lot of Irene from last year. Irene formed almost at the same time as Tropical Depression nine and Irene was supposed to hit Florida but missed at the last second. Does anyone see this same sceanio happening this time. I always say if the models are on Florida now there is more of a chance for the storm to not hit Florida. What worries me is that GFS Model has been running in the same location for the best 3 days and this model usually the most reliable model.

[tolakram]

And also good to remind people, since this gets confused ...

Storms that hit sFL passed through one of the boxes, but not all storms that passed through the boxes hit south Florida. An important difference to note.