ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Good point, galaxy401, the shear just isn't letting up over this poor system.

But good season so far, though - we're at our thirteenth named storm, and all of them so far made it above tropical storm status!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Alright, while most models agree on the blue track..I feel the red track is more likely. Anybody else want to show where they think it should go?

[brunota2003]

If you guys wish to draw your own forecasts, S2K does have their own mark up maps, which includes an intensity legend.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113481

[Cape Bretoner]

I'm directly below the blue track!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

my track projection



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I also doubt that Leslie will become a category three. The system is large, and will take more time for the winds to ramp up than in a smaller, tighter system.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track is unchanged at 55kts.

AL, 12, 2012090500, , BEST, 0, 252N, 628W, 55, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[NDG]

Looking better tonight.

[hurricanes1234]

Stalled at 55 knots for about 18 hours now?

[CrazyC83]

Maybe go up to 60 kt with the partial eyewall?

[hurricanes1234]

Maybe go up to 60 kt with the partial eyewall?

Yeah, 65 mph seems a bit on the low side for a storm this organized. I would also go with 70 mph for the 11 pm package, probably a 75 mph hurricane for the ABSOLUTE most, but this seems quite unlikely. Leslie needs a little more time to organize into a hurricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cheezyWXguy]

my track projection

http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/7875/leslieprojection.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I also doubt that Leslie will become a category three. The system is large, and will take more time for the winds to ramp up than in a smaller, tighter system.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Im not so sold that cat3 is out of reach. I know Leslie is a large storm and that rapid fluctuations in intensity are less likely, and Isaac was a perfect example of this...but the difference between the two is that Leslie has a very well organized low level structure, something Isaac didnt have until it was actually making landfall. Leslie's circulation has been well formed for quite sometime now, even despite the significant displacement of convection from its center up until yesterday or today. Now that Leslie actually has convection over the center, we are already seeing convective bands trying to set up into a primitive partial eyewall. We have also seen that Leslie is capable of produce extremely deep and persistent convection, especially for its latitude, over the past couple days despite the strong shear. Because of this, I'm really not sure how strong I think Leslie could get once the shear fully backs off, but I'd be hesitant to hold its upper limit to a cat2.

[ozonepete]

Yup, cheesy. This has a very symmetric circulation envelope as well and once shear drops off the entire circulation should start producing convection. I've seen a lot of TCs this size make category 3 once shear relaxed.

[Macrocane]

It seems to me that the shear has decreased significantly compared with the past few days as the cyclone looks better organized and the center hasn't been completely exposed since 12 hours ago.

[Hammy]

satellite appearance and evolution is reminding me alot of Claudette off of Texas in 2003 (pictures for reference)

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc03/ATL/04L.C ... TE.04L.jpg
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc03/ATL/04L.C ... TE.04L.jpg
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc03/ATL/04L.C ... TE.04L.jpg
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc03/ATL/04L.C ... TE.04L.jpg

similar system that started wrapping around while undergoing moderate wind shear

[brunota2003]

Updated wind graphic for TS Leslie. Finally some hurricane force winds on there, Bermuda looks like they probably will be receiving at least 50 knot winds. Keep an eye out, Bermuda.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MJS1]

There is an upper level low over South Florida..I stick to my forecast that Leslie will head west somewhere between WPB and the Florida Keys,,High pressure tends to move towards low pressure..The longer it stays immobile,the greater the chance it will move west, depending on the ULL strength

****THE PRECEDING IS A GUESS IN MY PART. I HAVE NO METEOROLOGICAL EDUCATION AND MY FORECASTS ARE USUALLY WRONG> PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA AND NHC BROADCASTS FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS^@@@@

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My track...

[floridasun78]

There is an upper level low over South Florida..I stick to my forecast that Leslie will head west somewhere between WPB and the Florida Keys,,High pressure tends to move towards low pressure..The longer it stays immobile,the greater the chance it will move west, depending on the ULL strength

****THE PRECEDING IS A GUESS IN MY PART. I HAVE NO METEOROLOGICAL EDUCATION AND MY FORECASTS ARE USUALLY WRONG> PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA AND NHC BROADCASTS FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS^@@@@

no way it will go to fl

[CrazyC83]

20120905 1145 25.9 62.4 T3.5/3.5 12L LESLIE

[CrazyC83]

AL, 12, 2012090512, , BEST, 0, 256N, 628W, 60, 990, TS

Up to 60 kt.