ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Leslie is getting that "punch" or "hook" look of intensifying tropical cyclones that we sometimes talk about.

[brunota2003]

Is it time for RI? Possibly. Looks like my indicator popped up around 08 UTC (4 am EDT), which would put the start of RI around 12 UTC to 14 UTC (8 am EDT to 10 am EDT). Seeing how the BT at 8 am EDT was 60 knots, I'm going to go higher than the usual 30 knots (which would be 90 knots) and go with 10 knots as the peak by 8 am tomorrow morning. I would not be surprised to see a well defined eye pop out by 2 pm to 4 pm EDT.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EDIT: Sorry I was delayed...been busy this morning. RI technically would be beginning around now, and unless the surface center is still displaced or the convection weakens, I really like what I see...in terms of RI.

[HurricaneRyan]

Looks like Leslie will be the first major of the season!

[DukeDevil91]

And there's Leslie's eye!

[Hurricane_Luis]

And there's Leslie's eye!

Must be a hurricane now!

[DESTRUCTION5]

And there's Leslie's eye!

Must be a hurricane now!

http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/5356/tsleslie2.png

If she filters out that dry air on the west side the sky is the limit...I think there will be no doubt shes going to be our 1st major hurricane..

[Time_Zone]

Im confused as to why people have Leslie tracking so far west when nearly all models have it staying offshore until it hits Newfoundland.

[DukeDevil91]

Leslie has really expanded outflow westward nicely in the passed several frames. It's like the shear just... stopped. Dry air is also diminishing in front of her.

[DukeDevil91]

Also, a very nice burst of convection to the north of her eye in the last frame.

[Zanthe]

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

[Airboy]

HURRICANE LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
145 PM AST WED SEP 5 2012

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LESLIE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUMMARY OF 145 PM AST...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 62.5W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWAR

[Time_Zone]

I'm directly below the blue track!

Haha me too man.

I'm willing to bet Leslie is stronger then 75MPH right now.

[Hurricane_Luis]

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

Peaks at 95 kts, borderline Cat 2/3 Hurricane

[Time_Zone]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Just for fun here's my track. I see Leslie undergoing RI and even becoming a category 4 storm for a very short period of time.

This is more of a guess then a forecast as i'm quite uneducated regarding hurricanes.




nvm, guess im too dumb to figure out how to properly post images

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm directly below the blue track!

Haha me too man.

I'm willing to bet Leslie is stronger then 75MPH right now.

No doubt the projected track will shift around alot yet (lets all hope for a further eastward trend). However as things now stand, imo, Eastern Nova Scotia & Newfoundland Island are by far in the most danger from this system of any areas outside of Bermuda.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Time_Zone]

I'm directly below the blue track!

Haha me too man.

I'm willing to bet Leslie is stronger then 75MPH right now.

No doubt the projected track will shift around alot yet (lets all hope for a further eastward trend). However as things now stand, imo, Eastern Nova Scotia & Newfoundland Island are by far in the most danger from this system of any areas outside of Bermuda.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Seems like almost all the models have it passing well to the east of me. I'm not too worried as it stands

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track remains at 65kts.

AL, 12, 2012090518, , BEST, 0, 258N, 627W, 65, 987, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[hurricanes1234]

A HURRICANE!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My new track is accordingly shifted east, and I also posted my 30% chance winds of 35kts+ based on storm strength.

Track& Intensity



30%+Winds chance:

[somethingfunny]

Not only Bermuda and Canada need to be concerned about Leslie, but perhaps Europe as well... it looks like Leslie's going to be a powerful extratropical cyclone.