ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[jeff]

Long day at work today..

How strong is the High over Texas?

It is that strong given the fact we had afternoon showers over E TX down into SE TX. THis current high is not the same as in 2011.

[jeff]

Looks interesting. We will have to wait and see what developes in the coming days. Models seem to be split as to where this thing goes...

Only the GFS still shows FL...the 18Z HWRF and GFDL had shifted in line with the EURO/CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS/NAM along with the 00Z BAMS. NHC and NWS offices will go with the western solution, but are having to come up with the guidance on impacts given the GFS is doing its thing and so many other guidance run off the GFS output.

[cycloneye]

Looks interesting. We will have to wait and see what developes in the coming days. Models seem to be split as to where this thing goes...

Only the GFS still shows FL...the 18Z HWRF and GFDL had shifted in line with the EURO/CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS/NAM along with the 00Z BAMS. NHC and NWS offices will go with the western solution, but are having to come up with the guidance on impacts given the GFS is doing its thing and so many other guidance run off the GFS output.

jeff,maybe a solution is a blend between the two different camps of models?

[Kingarabian]

Maybe a LA landfall cannot be ruled out if the GFS still insists on an eastern soultion.

Also wtf, wasn't the NOGAPS a reliable model in 04-05-06?

[tailgater]

Looks like that naked swirl that shot out from the Yucatan Channel earlier this evening has made it to the broad center, so I'm thinking things might start ramping up a little. the MLC is just southeast of this position so if it stacks up we'll probably see a TD tomorrow.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[ROCK]

0Z GFS rolling.....looks like it initialized good...

24hr...heading north

33hr.....off of LA coastline.....this could be a bad flood event for the NGOMers.....

[vaffie]

42 hours seems to be stalled

[ROCK]

42 hours seems to be stalled

yeah.....I seem to recall a run just like this the other night....it stalled for 4 days....

[vaffie]

42 hours seems to be stalled

yeah.....I seem to recall a run just like this the other night....it stalled for 4 days....

Well, if the GFS stalls and the other models go west, my bet is that it goes west!

My unofficial opinion...

[ROCK]

60hr still stalled.....oh brother

[Weatherfreak000]

I think GFS looks interesting tonight. Maybe north?

[vaffie]

As you watch it stall in this run, just keep in mind how big the storm is...

[ROCK]

69hr still stalled....

[Hurricaneman]

60hr still stalled.....oh brother

The GFS has done this twice, either this model loses all credibility or it scores huge and stalls or heads to the NE

[Lane]

Looking just like last night.

[ROCK]

75 still stalled

[tailgater]

yeah and gives birth to Ernesto again off the east coast.

[Lane]

Looks to head SE at 75hrs

[bamajammer4eva]

At least this time its drifting East and not totally stalled like last night.

48 Hr S of Mobile/Pensacola
http://instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012062300&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=048

75 hr S of Apalachicola
http://instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012062300&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=075

[vaffie]

yeah and gives birth to Ernesto again off the east coast.

Yup, the budding off of Ernesto each time in the Bahamas is what stalls it or pulls it eastward each time. none of the other models bud off an Ernesto...