ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Lets get some FL winds above 35 before we get too excited. Can't ignore the FL winds which are a direct measurement because we like what the indirect measurement is showing.

[CrazyC83]

Can someone pickup the HDOBS? I'll get the graphics as often as I can but have to leave for a few minutes.

I can do them for a little bit.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021755
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20120802
174700 1344N 05619W 9766 00291 //// +246 //// 057026 027 023 000 01
174730 1343N 05618W 9773 00287 //// +246 //// 054025 027 018 001 05
174800 1342N 05617W 9770 00286 //// +246 //// 055027 027 021 001 01
174830 1341N 05616W 9769 00290 //// +245 //// 054027 027 022 001 01
174900 1340N 05615W 9770 00291 //// +246 //// 054026 028 020 002 01
174930 1338N 05614W 9771 00291 //// +245 //// 057027 027 021 000 01
175000 1337N 05613W 9773 00290 //// +247 //// 063027 029 023 002 01
175030 1336N 05612W 9770 00291 //// +249 //// 061030 032 023 000 01
175100 1335N 05611W 9770 00290 //// +250 //// 061032 033 026 001 01
175130 1334N 05610W 9771 00290 //// +250 //// 062031 032 022 001 01
175200 1333N 05609W 9770 00290 //// +250 //// 060030 031 023 001 05
175230 1331N 05608W 9768 00290 //// +250 //// 058031 031 021 001 01
175300 1330N 05607W 9772 00286 //// +250 //// 056030 030 020 002 01
175330 1329N 05606W 9769 00287 //// +250 //// 054027 027 018 002 01
175400 1327N 05606W 9770 00285 //// +250 //// 052029 029 019 001 01
175430 1326N 05605W 9770 00285 //// +251 //// 054028 028 020 001 01
175500 1324N 05604W 9767 00287 //// +251 //// 052027 030 020 002 01
175530 1323N 05603W 9769 00284 //// +255 //// 052028 029 021 000 01
175600 1322N 05602W 9770 00285 //// +255 //// 051028 029 021 001 01
175630 1320N 05602W 9770 00284 //// +254 //// 048028 029 021 003 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 021752
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 55.3W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 55.3W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Dave]

[Sanibel]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1916/6/track.gif

[ROCK]

24hrs- EURO

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif

48hr- EURO

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

[Hurricane Alexis]

At the rate it's moving, it shouldn't cause problems in the Windward islands.

[ozonepete]

Still appears to be moving west NW.

NHC 2PM has it moving west, Mark. I think those curved bands to the NW are giving the illusion it's moving WNW. Still looks to me like LLC is moving due west (or a tad north of it) since a few hours ago.
(Edited to remove image.)

[Kingarabian]

48hr Euro has TD-5 entering through the Caribbean but really weak.

Compared to it's 00z run where it had nothing.



Loses it @ 72 hours:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The depression has managed to develop banding features and organize some this afternoon. I think we'll see a 40-45 mph Tropical Storm Ernesto at 5PM EDT.

[AHS2011]

are there any chances of R.I. in within the next 48 hours?

[TwisterFanatic]

Banding is giving the illusion of moving NW. Still on a W to very slight WNW heading.

[islandguy246]

would Barbados be placed under a TS warning?

[ozonepete]

would Barbados be placed under a TS warning?

If they name it a TS, it's quite likely, yes.

[ROCK]

The depression has managed to develop banding features and organize some this afternoon. I think we'll see a 40-45 mph Tropical Storm Ernesto at 5PM EDT.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/175.JPG

I dont know....be a close call. RECON shows wind estimates very close to TS...

[cycloneye]

Note= If anyone is going to quote a post with a graphic or image,do it without them by taking out the Img to makes things more smoother in the board.Thanks for your cooperation.

[ROCK]

96hr...really west on this run

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif

[JamesCaneTracker]

Recon appears to be finding a lower pressure then what the NHC is saying TD5 currently has. NHC is saying 1008mb while Recon is finding a Pressure between 1002 and 1003 mb.

180630 1259N 05539W 9770 00276 //// +242 //// 040014 014 /// /// 05

Edit: Oh ok I always thought that line was the pressure... I guess we learn something new every day! lol