ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021816
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20120802
180700 1258N 05537W 9772 00274 //// +245 //// 046011 012 /// /// 05
180730 1257N 05536W 9769 00278 //// +243 //// 041009 010 /// /// 05
180800 1256N 05535W 9770 00276 //// +245 //// 044007 008 /// /// 05
180830 1255N 05534W 9769 00275 //// +244 //// 048003 004 /// /// 05
180900 1253N 05533W 9772 00275 //// +242 //// 098002 003 /// /// 05
180930 1252N 05532W 9770 00276 //// +245 //// 144003 005 /// /// 05
181000 1251N 05531W 9769 00278 //// +244 //// 164005 005 /// /// 05
181030 1250N 05529W 9768 00279 //// +229 //// 166007 008 /// /// 05
181100 1251N 05528W 9769 00278 //// +237 //// 154009 010 /// /// 05
181130 1253N 05529W 9782 00266 //// +244 //// 157010 011 /// /// 05
181200 1254N 05527W 9769 00278 //// +244 //// 168011 011 /// /// 05
181230 1253N 05526W 9772 00275 //// +247 //// 167014 014 /// /// 05
181300 1252N 05525W 9767 00279 //// +228 //// 175018 021 /// /// 05
181330 1252N 05523W 9772 00276 //// +221 //// 186021 022 /// /// 05
181400 1251N 05522W 9770 00279 //// +239 //// 185023 024 008 004 05
181430 1251N 05520W 9772 00279 //// +241 //// 187025 025 013 002 01
181500 1250N 05519W 9772 00280 //// +244 //// 188025 026 014 002 01
181530 1249N 05518W 9773 00279 //// +243 //// 191025 025 015 002 05
181600 1248N 05516W 9768 00285 //// +239 //// 187023 024 018 002 05
181630 1248N 05515W 9772 00281 //// +239 //// 182026 027 021 002 05
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

Recon appears to be finding a lower pressure then what the NHC is saying TD5 currently has. NHC is saying 1008mb while Recon is finding a Pressure between 1002 and 1003 mb.

180630 1259N 05539W 9770 00276 //// +242 //// 040014 014 /// /// 05

actually the number you highlighted is the altitude the plane is at, the pressure is not shown at all

[tolakram]

Remember the problem with linking images. Every embedded image pointing to another site puts a load on the server host of that image based on whoever even looks at this thread. Heavy storm2k traffic can bring one of these servers down and we don't want to do that.

We must insist on copying images or posting links.

Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Recon appears to be finding a lower pressure then what the NHC is saying TD5 currently has. NHC is saying 1008mb while Recon is finding a Pressure between 1002 and 1003 mb.

180630 1259N 05539W 9770 00276 //// +242 //// 040014 014 /// /// 05

That line is how low the plane is flying.The pressure line is not working for now.

[lester]

Recon appears to be finding a lower pressure then what the NHC is saying TD5 currently has. NHC is saying 1008mb while Recon is finding a Pressure between 1002 and 1003 mb.

180630 1259N 05539W 9770 00276 //// +242 //// 040014 014 /// /// 05

that's not the pressure, recon's not reporting the pressure at the moment for some reason

[ROCK]

well the EURO wants to slam TD5 into CA....maybe because it keeps it weak all the way across....

[PTrackerLA]

Euro isn't impressed at all! I doubt the remants even make it into the BOC on the this run.

[TCmet]

Recon appears to be finding a lower pressure then what the NHC is saying TD5 currently has. NHC is saying 1008mb while Recon is finding a Pressure between 1002 and 1003 mb.

180630 1259N 05539W 9770 00276 //// +242 //// 040014 014 /// /// 05

actually the number you highlighted is the altitude the plane is at, the pressure is not shown at all

That's right. The highlighted number is the plane's altitude in meters. Pressure sensor is inop right now.

[Kingarabian]

Euro isn't impressed at all! I doubt the remants even make it into the BOC on the this run.

Somewhat they do @ 120 hours, where its remnants are moving off the YC.

Anyway another boring run .

Its gone in 144 hours.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021825
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20120802
181700 1247N 05514W 9768 00286 //// +240 //// 184027 027 023 000 01
181730 1246N 05513W 9769 00286 //// +244 //// 187027 028 021 002 01
181800 1245N 05512W 9772 00285 //// +248 //// 188026 027 020 000 05
181830 1244N 05510W 9772 00286 //// +242 //// 184026 027 021 000 05
181900 1244N 05509W 9771 00289 //// +241 //// 182025 026 /// /// 05
181930 1243N 05509W 9770 00289 //// +243 //// 181024 025 /// /// 05
182000 1242N 05510W 9773 00286 //// +243 //// 178023 024 /// /// 05
182030 1243N 05511W 9772 00286 //// +241 //// 179023 024 018 000 05
182100 1243N 05513W 9761 00295 //// +244 //// 182024 025 /// /// 05
182130 1243N 05514W 9768 00289 //// +249 //// 180022 023 014 002 05
182200 1243N 05516W 9772 00285 //// +247 //// 180021 022 014 002 01
182230 1243N 05517W 9770 00286 //// +243 //// 179022 023 /// /// 05
182300 1243N 05519W 9770 00286 //// +242 //// 182021 021 /// /// 05
182330 1242N 05520W 9767 00289 //// +223 //// 189018 018 /// /// 05
182400 1242N 05522W 9774 00284 //// +237 //// 197019 020 /// /// 05
182430 1241N 05523W 9769 00286 //// +237 //// 202019 020 /// /// 05
182500 1241N 05524W 9768 00287 //// +234 //// 203017 017 /// /// 05
182530 1240N 05526W 9768 00289 //// +237 //// 213016 017 /// /// 05
182600 1239N 05527W 9767 00287 //// +240 //// 222014 015 /// /// 05
182630 1239N 05528W 9774 00283 //// +242 //// 221012 013 /// /// 05
$$
;

[ROCK]

12Z GFDL - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12Z- HWRF- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Hurricaneman]

is it me or does it seem that this recon mission is having equipment failure

[cycloneye]

12Z GFDL - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12Z- HWRF- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

If HWRF is right,it would be a huge concern somewhere in the GOM.

[Dave]

[RL3AO]

is it me or does it seem that this recon mission is having equipment failure

It would be a bigger story if a recon mission didn't have some sort of data problem.

[ROCK]

12Z GFDL - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12Z- HWRF- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

If HWRF is right,it would be a huge concern somewhere in the GOM.

yeah it looks to bend some in last few frames more to the NW.....IMO this is definetly GOM bound just not sure where and how strong....

[Dave]

Here's HDOBS 17 (browser cached it)....please continue CrazyC83 on HDOBS...I'll grab graphics as quick as I can...thank you!

Code: Select all

000
URNT15 KNHC 021813
AF302 0105A CYCLONE            HDOB 17 20120802
175700 1319N 05601W 9772 00281 //// +254 //// 046028 030 021 001 05
175730 1318N 05600W 9769 00283 //// +251 //// 046028 029 023 000 01
175800 1316N 05559W 9773 00281 //// +250 //// 046028 029 024 001 05
175830 1315N 05558W 9769 00283 //// +245 //// 042028 028 023 000 05
175900 1314N 05557W 9771 00281 //// +250 //// 042027 028 021 001 01
175930 1313N 05556W 9772 00280 //// +249 //// 043027 029 022 002 01
180000 1312N 05555W 9766 00285 //// +249 //// 044028 030 017 000 01
180030 1310N 05554W 9764 00286 //// +248 //// 041024 025 018 001 01
180100 1309N 05553W 9772 00280 //// +247 //// 042024 025 011 002 05
180130 1308N 05551W 9770 00284 //// +249 //// 043023 024 /// /// 05
180200 1307N 05550W 9769 00283 //// +250 //// 036022 022 /// /// 05
180230 1306N 05549W 9772 00280 //// +250 //// 032021 021 /// /// 05
180300 1305N 05548W 9766 00284 //// +249 //// 027021 021 /// /// 05
180330 1304N 05547W 9772 00279 //// +246 //// 026021 021 /// /// 05
180400 1303N 05545W 9768 00281 //// +237 //// 031021 021 019 002 05
180430 1302N 05544W 9773 00276 //// +221 //// 031020 021 020 001 01
180500 1301N 05543W 9769 00280 //// +233 //// 034020 021 008 003 01
180530 1300N 05541W 9768 00279 //// +227 //// 034016 017 005 002 01
180600 1259N 05540W 9772 00275 //// +230 //// 036015 016 /// /// 05
180630 1259N 05539W 9770 00276 //// +242 //// 040014 014 /// /// 05
$$
;


[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021835
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20120802
182700 1239N 05530W 9766 00287 //// +240 //// 220012 012 /// /// 05
182730 1239N 05531W 9772 00283 //// +242 //// 217011 012 /// /// 05
182800 1239N 05533W 9771 00283 //// +241 //// 224011 012 /// /// 05
182830 1239N 05534W 9770 00281 //// +239 //// 228009 010 /// /// 05
182900 1239N 05536W 9769 00281 //// +245 //// 221008 009 /// /// 05
182930 1239N 05537W 9772 00279 //// +248 //// 218007 008 /// /// 05
183000 1239N 05539W 9768 00284 //// +248 //// 230005 005 /// /// 05
183030 1239N 05541W 9773 00279 //// +246 //// 261005 007 /// /// 05
183100 1239N 05542W 9768 00285 //// +240 //// 273006 007 000 003 05
183130 1239N 05544W 9769 00285 //// +238 //// 273005 005 001 001 05
183200 1239N 05545W 9772 00285 //// +236 //// 269003 004 002 004 01
183230 1238N 05547W 9770 00286 //// +225 //// 015002 004 012 006 01
183300 1238N 05548W 9772 00286 //// +215 //// 042005 005 019 007 01
183330 1238N 05550W 9768 00289 //// +220 //// 039004 005 021 006 01
183400 1238N 05552W 9770 00289 //// +241 //// 057002 004 002 004 01
183430 1238N 05553W 9770 00287 //// +246 //// 015007 009 002 003 05
183500 1238N 05555W 9769 00289 //// +243 //// 022009 010 /// /// 05
183530 1238N 05557W 9770 00287 //// +238 //// 019009 010 /// /// 05
183600 1238N 05558W 9773 00285 //// +237 //// 015008 009 /// /// 05
183630 1238N 05600W 9769 00289 //// +237 //// 015006 007 000 003 05
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Still TD5.

18z Best Track

AL, 05, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 30, 1008, TD

[Blinhart]

Yes but unfortunately this model doesn't show a weak system hitting the Texas/Louisiana border, but a very strong system that would rival Rita and Gustav, that is a scary thought. So if it does go to the Tx/La border it is a weak system that does bring in a lot of rain to the drought starved areas in Texas and Oklahoma.

Of course it could go anywhere and the 12z has moved from this area, but fyi... that part of Texas is far from being in a drought. Southeast Texas is very saturated, a complete flip from last summer when we were in a horrible drought.

I know we have had a lot of rain, but over the last 3 years we are technically still in a drought, so I'm sorry if I didn't clear that up enough. I live 80 miles from the Texas border with Louisiana via I-10. As the crow flies I'm about 25 to 30 miles from the coast, so I understand what you are talking about.