ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re:

#961 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:48 pm

uhvjaguars22 wrote:Most likely may effect honduras if remains weak just like ernesto. hey everyone im new here


It's possible, but I think it's too early to think it may be going that far west and into Mexico..
I think it would have to remain extremely weak in order for that to happen...

Even with the stability levels in the carib that don't favor strenghtening as wxman
pointed out, I still think it should strengthen some...I can't see it remaining as a depression
while moving through the warmer waters of the carib.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#962 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:49 pm

shaggy wrote:Is it me or does it look as if the LLC is becoming exposed better and may be moving more WNW recently?


It's not you. I noticed what looks like a big slow-down and a jog NW-NNW in the last hour or two. That may be why its experiencing the NE-E shear currently. Low level flow above the surface is moving a lot faster than the LLC. I think this is only a temporary wobble, however. General west motion should resume shortly. When that happens, I expect convection to rebuild over the center.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#963 Postby alienstorm » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:50 pm

the 17:15 high visible picture shows the center just south of 15N we will get a better idea once the recon arrives
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#964 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:50 pm

I would be VERY surprised if TD9 fizzles like some of the earlier systems/waves in this same area. This is mid-August not June or July, the circulation envelope is huge and well-defined, the system is drawing in some moisture from the south and we're seeing some healthy convection in bands to the NW of the center. Yes, it is exposed and pulling in dry air on the NE side. But all in all, this is a different animal, in my opinion. While I don't think 9 will undergo rapid intensification in the next couple of days, I do think we'll be calling this one "Isaac" by this time tomorrow.

What I find pretty interesting, as an aside, is the large circulation envelope. While certainly lacking the intense core of convection and wind strength, on a sheer size basis, TD9 looks roughly as big as Hurricane Floyd in 1999 when he was just to the east of the Bahamas and peaking out in intensity! If the storm maintains that large circulation, obviously a larger area of land would eventually be impacted. We'll see!
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#965 Postby uhvjaguars22 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:51 pm

It seems like every wave is moving too fast this year, this has been an interesting year
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Re:

#966 Postby ozonepete » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like another large burst is about to happen low level cloud deck thickening quite a bit.


I see that too. If it's starting to get past the main shear area it may hold the next burst over the center.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#967 Postby madinina972 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:59 pm

alienstorm wrote:the 17:15 high visible picture shows the center just south of 15N we will get a better idea once the recon arrives


The center just south of 15N?

Here in Martinica the bulletin is:
"An evolution of the depression to a tropical storm is expected within 24 hours. According to the most probable path, the center will pass close to the Guadeloupe tomorrow evening. In this hypothèse Martinique will be the most affected by rainy begin in late tonight. It rains intensify the next night and continue Thursday significant accumulations are expected.
The strongest winds are deployed north of the disturbance and should not concern us. However strong gusts accompany squall lines. The sea will grow gradually between 2m50 and 3 meter
We can not exclude at this time that the path is closer to the Martinique. The probability is low. In this case wind and sea will be more pronounced."

What do you think?

Sorry for my english...
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#968 Postby Shuriken » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:00 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:I didn't see anyone else respond to this, so let me take a crack at it. First, a "cap" colloquially and usually refers to a layer of air just above the planetary boundary layer that exhibits a stable lapse rate in temperatures. That is, it's a low level feature, usually around 2-4 km above the ground. It can be an actual temperature inversion (where the temperature actually increases with height), but it doesn't have to be, just so long as the drop in temperature with height is slower than what a rising parcel from the boundary layer below would experience as it attempts to rise through the "cap". In such a case, the parcel's temperature will end up being cooler at some point than the surrounding air, and will therefore become negatively buoyant and decelerate, possibly reversing direction and sinking again. This is why such a layer is called a cap, since it inhibits the upward progress of rising air parcels from below.

Shuriken is using a lot of nonstandard terminology which makes it difficult to evaluate the meteorological merits of what he's saying, but when he's referring to "King Cap" above 200 mb, this is nothing more than the tropopause inversion. It's *not* the top of the atmosphere, only the boundary between the possibly unstable troposphere below, and the very stable stratosphere.

I did not refer to any cap "above 200mb" or specify the tropopause inversion; the cap ("King") in question is the one which inhibits convection from reaching and exhausting at 200mb (i.e., that which keeps cloud tops generally lower and warmer, rather than, say, -75C). Depending upon the location and time of season, the actual height of this cap could widely vary.

The inability to exhaust above the tops of nearby convection, or the layer of subsidence generated by ITCZ/South American equatorial blow-off, will prevent a tropical system from intensifying.

TD9 is demonstrating the dominance of this factor today: last night, the cap loosened, and a big meatball blew up; this morning, well before the diurnal minima, the cap re-asserted itself and convection waned considerably to the point that the LLC is now exposed.

-- Why did this happen? Most people will fret over various surface factors such as dry air and so on; and much head-scratching ensues as systems inexplicably croak despite entering areas of better surface conditions for intensification.

I believe it's an entirely high altitude phenomena caused by gravity waves and similar perturbations along the tropopause which upset stability variables. Since these triggering phenomena are mainly invisible, there is an unconscious tendency to assume they do not exist, or at least not pay them due mind. (There have been scattered studies of high altitude import, but not enough for a general knowledge to percolate throughout the community of tropical devotees.)

The height of the tropopause is typically higher in the tropics than in the midlatitudes, because the troposphere is overall warmer and less dense there, leading to a deeper troposphere than the colder midlatitudes. It serves as another "cap" for deep convection (read, thunderstorms) because as the air parcels rising in a thunderstorm updraft encounter the tropopause, they quickly become cooler than the very warm air in the tropopause, and become negatively buoyant. A sufficiently intense updraft, however, has such momentum that it can "punch" it's way quite a distance above the tropopause before the negative buoyancy stops it and causes it to sink again (the so-called "overshooting top"). This is why thunderstorm anvils form (and the cirrus shield of tropical cyclones), as the rising air eventually settles at its level of neutral buoyancy and spreads out horizontally.

Shuriken is right than when the lapse rates below the tropopause are large (at least I think this is what he was getting at), the troposphere is more unstable to deep convection and thunderstorm updrafts (including "hot towers") will be more intense. This leads to stronger tropical cyclones, all other things being equal.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#969 Postby alienstorm » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:00 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#970 Postby ozonepete » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:01 pm

alienstorm wrote:the 17:15 high visible picture shows the center just south of 15N we will get a better idea once the recon arrives


Yeah I think you meant just north of 15.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#971 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:03 pm

From 11am NHC Disco:
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT 24 HR OR SO...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR...SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 48 HR.


It's a TD, not supposed to look like a Cat 2. The NHC explained why it's not supposed to look like a Cat 2 now. Wait 24 hours and I bet it looks like a TS. It's exciting, but got to have patience, it took me 5 years to become patient with developing systems! :lol:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#972 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:04 pm

Honestly it looks like it has lost a whole degree of latitude since last night...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#973 Postby chrisjslucia » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:05 pm

ozonepete wrote:
alienstorm wrote:the 17:15 high visible picture shows the center just south of 15N we will get a better idea once the recon arrives


Yeah I think you meant just north of 15.


NHC 2.00 Bulletin puts it at 15.3 - a small jig north of earlier ?

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 53.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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Re:

#974 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:05 pm

uhvjaguars22 wrote:It seems like every wave is moving too fast this year, this has been an interesting year



Perhaps a Meteorologist can explain on here why the storms have been moving so fast this year?
It just seems like with very storm in the atlantic all I hear is, "it needs to slow down"
"It's moving too fast to develop"... So why is that happening with every wave/storm this year?
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Re:

#975 Postby Houstonia » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:05 pm

uhvjaguars22 wrote:Most likely may effect honduras if remains weak just like ernesto. hey everyone im new here


Hello UHer. I am a UHD ('Gators!) alumn. Welcome. :-)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#976 Postby ozonepete » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:07 pm

uhvjaguars22 wrote:
Most likely may effect honduras if remains weak just like ernesto. hey everyone im new here.


Welcome! :)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#977 Postby Shuriken » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:
shaggy wrote:Is it me or does it look as if the LLC is becoming exposed better and may be moving more WNW recently?
It's not you. I noticed what looks like a big slow-down and a jog NW-NNW in the last hour or two. That may be why its experiencing the NE-E shear currently.
This light northeasterly shear at the blow-off level is creating the optical illusion of a northwest turn; as the center of the LLC becomes exposed over several satellite frames, you should see that the actual track remains nearly due west at this point.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#978 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:09 pm

latest.

Not a lot of convection around the center at the moment.

Image
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Re: Re:

#979 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:09 pm

Zeno8 wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Hmmmm.....I'm starting to wonder if it may. Just stay weak and trek west.


Yes I do believe cones will be shifting west

How far west do you think this may shift? We all know that the cone will shift back and forth, but just wondering how far west would it shift. Is there a blocking mechanism farther west that may keep it from entering the central GOM?
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#980 Postby uhvjaguars22 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:11 pm

We in middle texas coast have really been lucky with IKE going north and debby doing a u turn but never let your guards down. TD9 may be one that sneaks uo on people
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