ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Looks like it is starting to slow down when I loop the vis loops. It did take a bit of a NE jog over Cuba (good for Florida), but now let's see if it take on a more NNW movement the models are predicting.

I see it, too...

P.S. The NHC routinely will need to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for a stretch of coastline and coastal waters even if the wind speed on land might not reach TS criteria - some get annoyed by this practice but it's for sake of mariner safety...

[bahamaswx]

107kt FL / 79kt SFMR in NE quad.

976.1mb and dropping.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like it is starting to slow down when I loop the vis loops. It did take a bit of a NE jog over Cuba (good for Florida), but now let's see if it take on a more NNW movement the models are predicting.

I see it, too...

P.S. The NHC routinely will need to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for a stretch of coastline and coastal waters even if the wind speed on land might not reach TS criteria - some get annoyed by this practice but it's for sake of mariner safety...

That is true (TS Warnings for the coast also include nearshore waters within 50 n mi of the shoreline), but that point usually is not communicated very well to the general public that is not involved in maritime activities...so the land-based public will mostly see lost productivity and a few days of nuisances that do not justify the warnings (in its view, not the NHC’s).

[GCANE]

Good Overshooting Tops in the Bahamas - a good sign of restrengthening

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[fci]

i agree that the TS warning for Florida should be dropped but it probably won't be until they're positive such conditions won't happen. the same thing happened here with Isaac in the tampa bay area. our warnings were continued well after it was obvious isaac was moving much farther west. i refer to these as "legacy warnings" and you see this quite a bit. my guess is that florida hazards will be primarily marine in nature with little in the way of true trouble on land.

These are the types of situations that make me concerned about future complacency due to unnecessary school closings, lost work hours, reduced productivity due to storm mode, et cetera. People may become more finicky in their decisions to prepare and may make incorrect judgments when a more serious event arises due to uncertainties surrounding the track. The same will occur elsewhere if the main impact of Sandy is in Canada and N Maine (as seems increasingly probable) rather than the greater Northeast / Mid-Atlantic--there has been so much coverage on the threat that many people cannot comprehend the possibility that it may not verify as models initially suggested. I know I was a bit guilty as well in terms of elevating the threat, though not as much as some people were.

The legacy warnings + media = perceptions that lead to expectations that may not verify but cause headaches in the process. When the next major disaster strikes the United States, I have a feeling that it will still cause many deaths and contain the element of surprise (even though it may well be warned and communicated quite well), simply due to human nature after all the storm fatigue over non- (or mostly non-) events.

Sorry to respond to what is probably off topic to the discussion of Sandy but I feel compelled (usually get in trouble when I do this )

I don't know what you propose to do.
If the media does not present something that "could" happen, the critics blame them for not being upfront and honest.
When they do, and then the event does not occur, we hear what you have said above.
So what is the answer?
The answer is to do what has occurred here.
If a situation arises that poses danger, tell everyone what is possible.
Yes, if this happens a lot, people may become complacent.
But.....what is the alternative?

Off my "off-topic" soapbox.

[ROCK]

They were premature with cancelling school here in south florida

Better than a call at 2 am.

It is still a largely political decision, in my view--who would want to be liable for injuries during a storm, even if the injuries were not solely related to sustained wind speeds? Bad drivers are much more likely to cause problems than 35-kt / 40-mph winds here in South FL, based upon my experience.

Anyway, I am glad that Sandy’s family is secure in W Cuba...the point about historic, crumbling structures and old infrastructure across the island is a serious issue as previous storms have caused significant flying debris due to the frailty of old infrastructure.

whats the harm? I am sure the schools had TC days that were not used this season. Not sure how you can play politics with school closings but I respect your opinion...

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's go away from the word that starts with the letter P,thanks.

[bahamaswx]

Good Overshooting Tops in the Bahamas - a good sign of restrengthening

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yep. Directly over top of the ragged islands. Small community there, but I'm sure they're getting clobbered.

[GCANE]

Looks like the only thing Cuba did to the eyewall is knock the southern quad down a couple notches.

Northern quad barely phased.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[ROCK]

Good Overshooting Tops in the Bahamas - a good sign of restrengthening

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

defintely a turn happening there...the center is slightly displaced or tilted IMO....

[bahamaswx]

Looks like pressure is down just under 1mb from the previous pass. Slow strengthening, as would be expected (and is evident by sat. imagery)

[WeatherOrKnot]

To my untrained eye it looks like a slight nnw jog in the last few frames.

[Aric Dunn]

recon pass shows due north movement satellite is deceiving us. appears its just the convection is re building thats giving the nne look

[Frank2]

Yes, but dry air to the west and southwest might slow strengthening this time - as another poster said earlier, had Cuba not been there Sandy was well on the way to Cat 3 or higher - unfortunately some in SE Cuba probably were not prepared for what happened overnight...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

Ok so after looking a few things. It appears the mid level circ is to the ne of the llc which can happen after crossing mountainous terrain. should become stacked again though.

[artist]

do you know if they have sustained much damage? Are any of your family in that area? Heard any news yet? Thinking of ya,

My family is on the other side of the island, in Havana, fortunately they're safe. I suspect Santiago de Cuba sustained very heavy damage, it's Cuba's second largest city (used to be the capital back in colonial times) and there are many historical, colonial buildings that could have collapsed. Thanks for your thoughts!! Appreciate it!!

good to hear your family is not there. Hope you have more time to post!

[KWT]

Sandy is a little stronger than what the ECM yesterday was expecting at this point (around the 968-970mbs range) Should see a slow but steady drop of pressure and I think the pressure probably won't increase much at all as it slowly gains more baroclinic forcing.

[AdamFirst]

When can we start seeing the baroclinic forcing?

[CrazyC83]

When can we start seeing the baroclinic forcing?

It may already be starting.

[KWT]

Yeah it'll be a very slow gradual ramp-up from now, and over the next few days it'll become more obvious, especially once the heat content and SSt's really drop away as it continues to get further north. For now the waters are still plenty warm in their own right and the shear conditions are still decent enough for it not to require that...yet.