EPAC: INVEST 93E

[Kingarabian]

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invest_ep932012.invest
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201208072146
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012080718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932012
EP, 93, 2012080618, , BEST, 0, 88N, 974W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012080700, , BEST, 0, 91N, 982W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012080706, , BEST, 0, 94N, 989W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012080712, , BEST, 0, 98N, 997W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012080718, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1005W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Kingarabian]

I think the GFS develops this... or its the energy from Ernesto.

[tolakram]

Floater loop. Man I love these new animated gifs

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[Yellow Evan]

C'mon invest, become Hector.

[hurricanes1234]

Losing some of its convection...as cloudtops have been warming substantially over the last 3-5 hours. Like Gilma, when it was still an invest, this shouldn't have any effects on it because the environment is moist. It seems to be doing what I call the "rainband replacement cycle" where most of the bands briefly diminish and return in a more compact, more organized structure than before.

Just my opinion.

[Kingarabian]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking quite good atm IMO.

[KWT]

Yep not a bad looking system, I expect to see some sort of development from this system.

[tolakram]

latest ir loop

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Convection still isn't the strongest with it but it is still firing up convection and the rotation is fairly obvious with it as well.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 670 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[tolakram]

latest visible loop

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1037W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[hurricanes1234]

18z Best Track

EP, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1037W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

What does this mean? 25 kt winds and pressure at 1008 mbar?

[brunota2003]

18z Best Track

EP, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1037W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

What does this mean? 25 kt winds and pressure at 1008 mbar?

Yes.


Break down for those who may not know what that means:

EP - East Pacific
93 - 93E
2012080818 - August 8, 2012 at 18Z
BEST - Best Track
0 - Not sure?
108N - 10.8 Degrees North Latitude
1037W - 103.7 Degrees West Longitude
25 - 25 knots
1008 - 1008 millibars
LO - Area of low pressure

[hurricanes1234]

Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Down from 40% to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 695 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ITS CENTER. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[hurricanes1234]

I would give this low a 70 percent chance of not developing into 8E/Hector.

________________
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[hurricanes1234]

At least he tried.