SIO: INVEST 95S

[supercane4867]

95S INVEST 140113 0000 11.4S 47.3E SHEM 15 1010

[stormkite]

WTXS21 PGTW 152000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1S 44.3E TO 22.6S 41.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151900Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 44.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 43.8E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 44.6E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INLAND INTO THE WESTERN POINT OF MADAGASCAR
AND IS NOW LOOPING BACK AND EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
DUAL OUTFLOW - ONE CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS PREDICT THE VORTEX TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL; HOWEVER, THEY SPREAD OUT
TOWARDS THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PREDICTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL (28-30 CELSIUS), THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162000Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
44.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 43.9E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 160418Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGER REVEALS THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BROKEN AND SHALLOWED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW,
ONE CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 152000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
HIGH.

[Grifforzer]

WTIO30 FMEE 161911 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20132014

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DELIWE)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 50 SE: SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/17 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2014/01/17 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2014/01/18 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2014/01/18 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2014/01/19 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/01/19 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 09S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 23.9S 38.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO,
MOZAMBIQUE. BASED ON ANALYSIS, THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S IS A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL SIGNATURE, EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A
191536Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
A 191948Z PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS 30 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH
LIMITED OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA WITH WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING VWS IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.