NIO: INVEST 99W

[jaguarjace]

99W INVEST 141105 0600 6.4N 110.0E WPAC 15 1008



AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 110.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 05130Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD LLCC WITH WEAK WINDS
(10 TO 15 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

The BoB needs watching with this one.

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 141105 1800 6.3N 108.1E WPAC 15 1010

[jaguarjace]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
110.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED AND
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN OLDER 052228Z SSMIS SHOWS THE FORMATIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME BANDING ON THE WESTERN SIDE. DYNAMIC
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF THAILAND IN ABOUT
72 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

99W INVEST 141107 0600 6.4N 104.1E WPAC 15 1010



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N
109.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 106.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED AND FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 070107Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A VERY BROAD AREA THAT
DEPICTS LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOSTLY MAINTAINED ON THE
WESTERN SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
SYSTEM DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TRoPICAL SYSTEM ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE MALAY PENINSULA BEYOND TAU 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[talkon]

99W INVEST 141107 1200 6.9N 103.0E WPAC 15 1010

TXPQ26 KNES 071544
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 07/1432Z

C. 6.4N

D. 103.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[jaguarjace]

99W INVEST 141109 1800 8.3N 96.0E WPAC 20 1007



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 98.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 96.6E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM NORTHWEST OF
SINGAPORE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 091331Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, WEAK LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[jaguarjace]

99W INVEST 141110 1800 8.8N 91.4E WPAC 20 1007



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 96.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
DISPLACING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.