EPAC: INVEST 97E

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2014111600, , BEST, 0, 69N, 925W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014111606, , BEST, 0, 70N, 936W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014111612, , BEST, 0, 72N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014111618, , BEST, 0, 75N, 955W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014111700, , BEST, 0, 78N, 964W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0,

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SUN NOV 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
slow development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972014 11/17/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 34 38 41 42 42 42 42 43
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 34 38 41 42 42 42 42 43
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 23 23 23 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 6 7 14 15 17 13 14 9 10 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 2 3 0 0 1 3 4 3 6 1
SHEAR DIR 212 138 162 177 179 199 197 200 193 202 211 217 201
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 143 142 140 145 148 149 152 148 148 149
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 71 74 72 72 69 66 64 62 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 14 15 6 -4 -8 -12 -16 -12 -6 -3 0
200 MB DIV 17 41 31 29 27 34 28 21 12 17 7 29 39
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 867 861 854 850 855 897 931 967 1024 1101 1197 1275 1355
LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2
LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.5 98.6 99.6 100.5 102.5 104.4 106.1 107.7 109.1 110.7 112.0 113.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 3 2 10 12 11 13 16 26 36 34

[hurricanes1234]

Maybe a brief storm from this? Doesn't look like much though.

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe a brief storm from this? Doesn't look like much though.

It has a shot IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST MON NOV 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972014 11/18/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 20 21 20 22 22 20 19 17 16
V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 20 21 20 22 22 20 19 17 16
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 16 19 15 15 13 15 18 26 25 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 4 6 3 3 3 5 5 4
SHEAR DIR 172 197 207 221 233 259 260 234 229 217 236 233 226
SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 148 147 148 151 151 150 150 150 149 149 145
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 70 70 68 64 64 63 61 59 56 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -20 -31 -36 -34 -29 -22 -7 5 10 13 0 1
200 MB DIV 59 41 53 36 39 32 22 12 14 38 55 56 39
700-850 TADV -2 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 3 4
LAND (KM) 901 912 917 921 935 965 1002 1058 1093 1086 1091 1118 1115
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.5 14.0
LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.6 105.6 106.6 107.5 109.1 110.4 111.5 112.3 112.6 113.0 113.8 114.9
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 7 5 3 2 3 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 15 10 8 9 11 16 30 34 24 20 17 15 13

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST TUE NOV 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. After that
time, upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
become a little more concentrated this evening. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
After that time, upper-level winds are likely to become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST WED NOV 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located about 550 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. After that time,
upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST WED NOV 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a westward-moving
trough of low pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico have become less organized since yesterday.
Upper-level winds have also become less conducive for tropical
cyclone formation and the chance of development of this system has
decreased.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Gone.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

And that should do it for 2014.