SPAC: 05F - Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 96P)

[jaguarjace]

96P INVEST 141224 0000 12.6S 176.7W SHEM 25 1004


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTER [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.6S 176.2W
AT 232100UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGRESS CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFULENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTION FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6S 177.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 231635Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 25/0928 UTC 2014 UTC

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTER [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 173.8W AT 250600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFULENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTION FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

96P INVEST 141228 0000 13.6S 169.7W SHEM 25 1004

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
170.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 169.7W, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A HIGHLY ELONGATED AREA OF TROUGHING
WITH LARGE AREAS OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERIES WITH NO CLEARLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LATEST 280158Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE CONCURS WITH
THE MSI LOOP AS MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
PERSIST ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO OVERALL ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT PAGO PAGO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND DO NOT SUPPORT
ANY DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO
THE POOR STRUCTURE AND LACK OF MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.