ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14942
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#101 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:10 pm

Meanwhile people along the eastern coast of FL have been enjoying a beautiful day along the beaches with surf temps in the mid 80s in most part of central and northern FL, which is very rare for the end of June which most times cold upwelling takes over from Vero Beach northward towards St Augustine this time of the year with SSTs along the immediate coast falling down into the low to mid 70s, something about this year in this part of the Atlantic.

Image
Last edited by NDG on Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#102 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:12 pm

If you asked me not really sure why recon was cancelled today? Looks fairly well organized with some decent banding. close to a td.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#103 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:14 pm

ASCAT pass made around 15:00 UTC shows a well defined circulation.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#104 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:15 pm

Looking close to tropical depression status this afternoon, though I'd like to see some deeper and better sustained convection over the center before the NHC calls it. Should become our first cyclone over the next 24-36 hours. Best shot at intensification will be after its landfall/closest approach to Florida and its recurve northeastward, when it will benefit most from upper-level divergence in association with the approaching trough. A strong tropical storm or hurricane like the ECMWF has been indicating would not surprise me.
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanefloyd5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1659
Age: 43
Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
Location: Spartanburg
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#105 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:16 pm

Let's see tropical depression 1/tropical storm Arthur develop. If this thing meanders with the right conditions this thing Ckrits slowly or moderately strengthened at a decent rate. I hope it develops into Hurricane
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14942
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#106 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:18 pm

SFLcane wrote:If you asked me not really sure why recon was cancelled today? Looks fairly well organized with some decent banding. close to a td.



I agree that it looks fairly well organized but they probably would had not found strong enough winds at the surface, buoy just to the SW of the circulation is only reporting winds near 20 knots with wave heights only near 3 feet, a good depression most times produces wave heights at least 6' feet reported by buoys close to it.
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#107 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:20 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:Let's see tropical depression 1/tropical storm Arthur develop. If this thing meanders with the right conditions this thing Ckrits slowly or moderately strengthened at a decent rate. I hope it develops into Hurricane


That easy to say being inland in Orlando. 8-)
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#108 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:29 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression could still form during
the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry air
could inhibit significant development until environmental conditions
become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low meanders
offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#109 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:43 pm

With the NHC upping the percentages at the 2pm TWO, I am kind of surprised today's mission was canceled.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#110 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:46 pm

Still doesn't look impressive yet
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#111 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:47 pm

AJC3 wrote:This should make a pretty close pass to NOAA Buoy 41010 (28.90N, 78.46W) during the next 24-36 hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

Noticeable increase in the wind speed at this buoy. Wave height (not shown) around 3.3 feet and gradually increasing. Suspect the pressure will be gradually dropping over the next 24-36 hours as 91L nears:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#112 Postby Hammy » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:51 pm

It would still be a reasonable assumption that if it becomes well enough organized beforehand, they could upgrade the system to at least a depression prior to recon going out, then adjust the intensity accordingly depending on what they find.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1475
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

#113 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:01 pm

Good assessment Mr. Stewart. A plus plus
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#114 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:30 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2014062918, , BEST, 0, 296N, 773W, 25, 1015, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#115 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:30 pm

Good loop here speed up. Fairly impressive LLC heading into gulfstream.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite ... tic-vis-48
0 likes   

Ikester
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 361
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 5:00 pm
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#116 Postby Ikester » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:ASCAT pass made around 15:00 UTC shows a well defined circulation.

Image


Here's some food for thought: systems in the southern BOC seem to organize quickly with little time for deepening. While conditions in the gulf are conducive for development most of the time with warm waters and hospitable atmosphere, that isn't always the case yet time and time again we see storms go from disturbance to moderate tropical storm in no time. The reason? The shape of the coastline. I was speaking to Bill Read, former NHC director, about this and he seemed to think that there may be some truth to this....that the shape of the coastline perhaps helps with vorticity. Dr. Neil Frank upon a conversation with him a few years ago, seemed to think there might be something there as well.

That said, if you look at the shape of the east coast, Invest 91L is sitting in a similar area with a very rounded, concave coast. I just wonder if, IF, that has any effect, albeit a subtle, minor one, in the development chances of this system. Thoughts? I'm a young, inexperienced meteorologist so be gentle lol.
0 likes   

SeGaBob

#117 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:37 pm

What I don't get is why NHC would cancel the mission but up the chances for development like they did.
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#118 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:44 pm

Ikester wrote:
cycloneye wrote:ASCAT pass made around 15:00 UTC shows a well defined circulation.

Image


Here's some food for thought: systems in the southern BOC seem to organize quickly with little time for deepening. While conditions in the gulf are conducive for development most of the time with warm waters and hospitable atmosphere, that isn't always the case yet time and time again we see storms go from disturbance to moderate tropical storm in no time. The reason? The shape of the coastline. I was speaking to Bill Read, former NHC director, about this and he seemed to think that there may be some truth to this....that the shape of the coastline perhaps helps with vorticity. Dr. Neil Frank upon a conversation with him a few years ago, seemed to think there might be something there as well.

That said, if you look at the shape of the east coast, Invest 91L is sitting in a similar area with a very rounded, concave coast. I just wonder if, IF, that has any effect, albeit a subtle, minor one, in the development chances of this system. Thoughts? I'm a young, inexperienced meteorologist so be gentle lol.


Several things make the BoC unique other than a curved coastline. One big influence is the Ismuthus of Tehuantepec and wind gap events crossing either from the EPAC that assist rapid development via pressure falls and increased low level vorticity. The exact opposite conditions occur when we see high pressures across the SW Gulf flow across the Ismuthus and assist rapid cyclone development near the Gulf Of Tehuantepec in the EPAC. Remember there are some rather high mountain ranges near the area as well.
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#119 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:54 pm

18Z information. Moving SW now:

At 1800 UTC, 29 June 2014, LOW INVEST (AL91) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 29.6°N and 77.3°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 215 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1015 mb

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /al912014/
0 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2422
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re:

#120 Postby USTropics » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:55 pm

SeGaBob wrote:What I don't get is why NHC would cancel the mission but up the chances for development like they did.


I think their reasoning for this is the proximity of a nearby buoy that will be able to determine surface observations, coupled with the slow progression of steering currents and the cost factor involved in flying a mission. I would have preferred to see recon, but I can see the counter argument as well.
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests