ATL: BERTHA - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Models will good a good grasp once something develops, I mean I don't buy any model run untill I see that it's developed, I will say this though euro has been the best model this year but it's not always right.
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
I would not get too excited about any model run this far out until the Gulfstream samples the upper air. Lots can change in the coming days. I have lost track of the number of times the models early on have the system recurving too soon. If the models start trending westward with every run we may have to start really paying attention. Who knows, there is even a chance 93L could poof, but with the way it is looking this evening I doubt it.......MGC
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- TheStormExpert
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- TheStormExpert
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Another look at the 0z ensemble members, you can see that the majority of the members have a more western track while the operational run is with the least members with a track to the right.
![Image](http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/aal93_2014072900_track_gfs_zpseac13d7a.png)
![Image](http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/aal93_2014072900_track_gfs_zpseac13d7a.png)
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
![Image](http://i58.tinypic.com/2l9mhvq.jpg)
06z... Farther west...
![Image](http://i57.tinypic.com/110aiyv.jpg)
06z... Big drop off in intensity...
![Image](http://i58.tinypic.com/qp0b40.jpg)
06z...
![Image](http://i57.tinypic.com/k2i6uc.jpg)
06z...
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:46 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
000
WHXX01 KWBC 291250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140729 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140729 1200 140730 0000 140730 1200 140731 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 39.1W 10.2N 42.2W 10.5N 45.6W 10.9N 48.9W
BAMD 9.6N 39.1W 9.8N 41.6W 10.0N 44.0W 10.3N 46.3W
BAMM 9.6N 39.1W 9.8N 41.6W 9.9N 44.1W 10.4N 46.5W
LBAR 9.6N 39.1W 9.5N 42.4W 9.5N 45.7W 9.7N 48.8W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140731 1200 140801 1200 140802 1200 140803 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 52.0W 12.3N 56.9W 14.7N 62.3W 17.9N 67.8W
BAMD 10.9N 48.4W 12.8N 52.4W 16.0N 56.9W 19.6N 61.2W
BAMM 11.0N 49.0W 13.0N 54.0W 16.5N 59.2W 20.1N 64.2W
LBAR 10.0N 51.7W 10.8N 57.0W 13.3N 61.5W 0.0N 0.0W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 39.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 35.5W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 32.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 291250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140729 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140729 1200 140730 0000 140730 1200 140731 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 39.1W 10.2N 42.2W 10.5N 45.6W 10.9N 48.9W
BAMD 9.6N 39.1W 9.8N 41.6W 10.0N 44.0W 10.3N 46.3W
BAMM 9.6N 39.1W 9.8N 41.6W 9.9N 44.1W 10.4N 46.5W
LBAR 9.6N 39.1W 9.5N 42.4W 9.5N 45.7W 9.7N 48.8W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140731 1200 140801 1200 140802 1200 140803 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 52.0W 12.3N 56.9W 14.7N 62.3W 17.9N 67.8W
BAMD 10.9N 48.4W 12.8N 52.4W 16.0N 56.9W 19.6N 61.2W
BAMM 11.0N 49.0W 13.0N 54.0W 16.5N 59.2W 20.1N 64.2W
LBAR 10.0N 51.7W 10.8N 57.0W 13.3N 61.5W 0.0N 0.0W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 39.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 35.5W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 32.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Notice that the SHIPS show the easterly shear to stay through the next 24-36 hrs before dropping, the system speeding up might help, IMO.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932014 07/29/14 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 61 69 74 78 77 79 79
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 61 69 74 78 77 79 79
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 61 72 80 84 84 82
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 23 23 19 19 21 11 9 3 11 10 12 20 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 0 3 3 0 1 0 4 0 0
SHEAR DIR 52 57 55 46 40 41 8 342 297 216 209 189 205
SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 129 131 132 133 133 134 135 139 139 143
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 129 131 133 134 134 135 135 136 139 136 137
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 12
700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 60 59 60 60 56 52 47 45 44 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 16 17 17 17 15 15 15
850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 31 22 18 14 12 7 -4 -17 -37 -43 -64
200 MB DIV 48 19 24 -7 -24 -30 -21 3 15 34 20 39 16
700-850 TADV -8 -10 -8 -7 -7 -5 -3 -5 0 2 7 5 8
LAND (KM) 1390 1333 1208 1100 1002 867 793 765 703 553 522 179 177
LAT (DEG N) 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 16 17 17 16 15
HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 5 7 31 16 27 25 34 18 37 57
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
![Image](http://i60.tinypic.com/20m6ub.jpg)
12z...
![Image](http://i60.tinypic.com/11w7sxx.jpg)
12z... Nearly all the models maintain at least TS status compared to 06z...
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- meriland23
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Is this moving too fast towards the west to develop? I mean last I checked it was RACING.
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NDG wrote::uarrow: What a change of heart the HWRF has had in less than 24 hrs, just wow!
until the hwrf scores two wins in a season(one could be luck) then it should really be looked at as entertainment only
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
![Image](http://i62.tinypic.com/2nvcin9.jpg)
GFS Ensembles...
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
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