ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

This is what is basically is going to be happening over the next 24-48 hrs as suggested by the HWRF and European model, 96L is not going to do much until the TW behind it catches up to it and a new area of low pressure reforms further north, IMO.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/4b5a092a-54d0-4e46-8d45-c9a8baef0340_zpsc245996e.jpg[/im]

Maybe the sharp 90 degree turn the models are showing is actually the center forming north of the current location.

[jlauderdal]

This is what is basically is going to be happening over the next 24-48 hrs as suggested by the HWRF and European model, 96L is not going to do much until the TW behind it catches up to it and a new area of low pressure reforms further north, IMO.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/4b5a092a-54d0-4e46-8d45-c9a8baef0340_zpsc245996e.jpg[/im]

Maybe the sharp 90 degree turn the models are showing is actually the center forming north of the current location.

nice try, what you guys smoking up I-95?

[tolakram]

Ok, let's review a few things so we don't have to moderate as much.

1. Personal Forecast Disclaimers are required on all posts that are making a forecast or prediction. Only blue tagged pro-mets are excluded from this rule.

2. Please be careful when posting images that you mark up to make sure all official names have been removed.

3. We must all be respectful to other posters at all times, no exceptions. Please avoid snarky and one line comments that don't add to the discussion.

Thanks for your cooperation!

[wxman57]

"It’s still over a week away, but a tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles is being forecast by the GFS model to grow into a hurricane, making landfall near New Orleans just 1 day before the 9th anniversary of Katrina’s landfall"

Especially if you don't know what the GFS is and don't read more than that paragraph, since it's above the graphics break, it seems a suggestion to me, especially since it's being directed there by a news site with that line as the headline.

There is a BIG difference between a forecast and an observation. Stating a fact about a recent model run is not the same as saying "this is my forecast". Nowhere in the article does he state what he thinks will happen.

[Blown Away]

This is what is basically is going to be happening over the next 24-48 hrs as suggested by the HWRF and European model, 96L is not going to do much until the TW behind it catches up to it and a new area of low pressure reforms further north, IMO.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/4b5a092a-54d0-4e46-8d45-c9a8baef0340_zpsc245996e.jpg[/im]

Maybe the sharp 90 degree turn the models are showing is actually the center forming north of the current location.

nice try, what you guys smoking up I-95?

jlauderdal in the house... It must be primetime hurricane season... Not buying a 90 degree turn these models are showing over the next 36 hours, but we shall see... No, I don't think you are snarky!!

[ninel conde]

i think its only chance to do much will be to head north of the islands and east of florida, then it MIGHT do something. if it goes into the gom or west carib it will be shredded and indeed the models looker weaker this morning with 96L in the gom with that super cane off mexico.

[tolakram]

i think its only chance to do much will be to head north of the islands and east of florida, then it MIGHT do something. if it goes into the gom or west carib it will be shredded and indeed the models looker weaker this morning with 96L in the gom with that super cane off mexico.

Except for the euro, which now has this system in the gulf and has backed off the idea of a super cane. And no, I'm not sure it means anything.

[Alyono]

contrary to what Ninel said, it is in the Gulf where conditions actually look favorable

[ninel conde]

i think its only chance to do much will be to head north of the islands and east of florida, then it MIGHT do something. if it goes into the gom or west carib it will be shredded and indeed the models looker weaker this morning with 96L in the gom with that super cane off mexico.

Except for the euro, which now has this system in the gulf and has backed off the idea of a super cane. And no, I'm not sure it means anything.

dont forget the chinese model. JB says it shows no development but it does develop a low off the east coast. the euro looks pretty weak in any case.

oe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 32m

Chinese model available on http://weatherbell.com says system off east coast becomes storm, southern feature nothing

[stormlover2013]

Gulf of Mexico is primed for a storm

[NDG]

This is what is basically is going to be happening over the next 24-48 hrs as suggested by the HWRF and European model, 96L is not going to do much until the TW behind it catches up to it and a new area of low pressure reforms further north, IMO.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/4b5a092a-54d0-4e46-8d45-c9a8baef0340_zpsc245996e.jpg[/im]

Maybe the sharp 90 degree turn the models are showing is actually the center forming north of the current location.

nice try, what you guys smoking up I-95?

Have you looked at the HWRF and European closely before you come here and insulting us!!!!

[tropicwatch]

A fairly significant increase in 850mb vorticity this morning.

[KatDaddy]

Invest 96L still looking disorganized this morning and expected to continue WNW into the Caribbean Sea over the next 5 days. As it approaches the NW Caribbean Sea conditions could be more favorable for development. Excerpt from this morning's New Orleans AFD:

AS FOR THE TROPICS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MDLS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND WITH NOTHING EVEN DEVELOPED YET IT IS FUTILE TO TRY TO FCST WHERE THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL GO. AS ALWAYS IN MID
AUG...ITS HURRICANE SEASON AND NO MATTER WHAT YOU SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE TROPICS.

[canes04]

10N/53W does appear where the low is forming. As the NHC mentioned, you can clearly see the system east being absorbed.
We may have a TD sometime tomorrow.

[JonathanBelles]

Morning blog post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/20/tr ... long-term/

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

"AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
LEAST WE CAN BE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS."

Blurb from NWS Miami...

[gatorcane]

This is what is basically is going to be happening over the next 24-48 hrs as suggested by the HWRF and European model, 96L is not going to do much until the TW behind it catches up to it and a new area of low pressure reforms further north, IMO.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/4b5a092a-54d0-4e46-8d45-c9a8baef0340_zpsc245996e.jpg[/im]

Maybe the sharp 90 degree turn the models are showing is actually the center forming north of the current location.

It's interesting the model guidance shows some kind of NW movement commencing soon - it could be that the models are thinking genesis forms further north than where 96L is pinpointed currently due to the interaction between 96L and the lobe of energy off to the ENE (the other X NHC has)..

[deltadog03]

This is going to be a tough one to call at this point imo. I mean, they all are at this stage. However, there is going to be 2 competing centers and that could be why the models are less happy with strengthening until there is no competition of the centers. the NW Carrib, near FL and ALL of the GOM is where this will have the best chance to take off.

[deltadog03]

oh, I think the 90 degree movement is BS as well, I think that is the model trying to figure out which "piece" of the energy its going to jump on. I still favor the GOM solution ATTM

[SFLcane]

Relocation per NHC..

00 GMT 08/20/14 9.5N 51.5W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 08/20/14 9.5N 52.5W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 08/20/14 11.2N 52.7W 25 1009 Invest