ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

This looks like a no-brainer to me. Look at all of that convection blowing up. And DMAX is just starting. Something about the environment there is sure helping.

[Equilibrium]

there is still a closed llcc there in this now whats looks a invest atm.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Chris_in_Tampa]

On the NW tip of Puerto Rico, one station reporting SSW winds:
http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... =KPRAGUAD6

From WunderMap:
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... t=0&favs=0

[ozonepete]

there is still a closed llcc there in this now whats looks a invest atm.

Well imho you can't really tell if there's an LLC in there right now but whether there is one or not right now there will certainly be one re-established overnight.

[ozonepete]

To clarify you can't tell by satellite or radar and RECON hasn't found anything but it's only a matter of time. I personally didn't expect the LLC to develop yet. Will take a few more hours as the main circulation gets further north of the coast.

[tgenius]

Is this going to alter the path assuming Bertha gets back together?

[ozonepete]

Is this going to alter the path assuming Bertha gets back together?

Wouldn't think so. There's nothing in the cards for a change of path as long as it continues to re-strengthen.

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/02/be ... -tomorrow/

[ozonepete]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/02/be ... -tomorrow/

Nice analysis Jonathan; very nice.

[Equilibrium]

To clarify you can't tell by satellite or radar and RECON hasn't found anything but it's only a matter of time. I personally didn't expect the LLC to develop yet. Will take a few more hours as the main circulation gets further north of the coast.

Did you give any it consideration that RECON may have missed the llcc it does appear to be midgit in size.
I veiwed satellite myself at first light the faint feeder bands were very easy to see if there was no llcc then what were they attached to and the radar was showing distinct circulation of those outer feeder bands have a look back over the last few pages it is a no brainer as you say.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Even if the center was off the coast of the Dominican Republic, recon may not be able to get close enough yet. (I'm not sure how close they can get to the Dominican Republic, perhaps they can get as close as they want, I'm not sure.)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force recon through 2:37Z.
Satellite image as of 2:15Z.

Not much, but a little something.

From 339° at 3 knots (From the NNW at ~ 3.4 mph)

[CrazyC83]

Even if inconclusive, best to keep it a TC for now operationally given the model forecasts and the fact that some clues of an LLC exist along with clues of an open wave.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force recon through 2:47Z.
Satellite image as of 2:15Z.

From 298° at 10 knots (From the WNW at ~ 11.5 mph)



(sonde from previous pass noted)

[ozonepete]

Clearly the NHC thinks it should be kept as a tropical cyclone. A tropical storm as a matter of fact. I'm not surprised and I agree.

[Aric Dunn]

Air Force recon through 2:47Z.
Satellite image as of 2:15Z.

From 298° at 10 knots (From the WNW at ~ 11.5 mph)



(sonde from previous pass noted)

not surprised at all.. I mentioned earlier that a reformation north of DR would likely happen. given the terrain and large scale improvement of the environment. Hispaniola like many high terrains can help tighten or help close of a circ if at the right angle of approach. this had all the makings of that.

[HURAKAN]

1015-1016 mb center? that doesn't look like the center but maybe the trough axis

[Hammy]

1015-1016 mb center? that doesn't look like the center but maybe the trough axis

Could this be the start of a reformation?

[Aric Dunn]

1015-1016 mb center? that doesn't look like the center but maybe the trough axis

yeah it had cleary opened up interacting with the islands.. however nothing inhibiting it from organizing again.

[Aric Dunn]

much better pass from recon this time.. though probably still not horribly well defined.