ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MaineWeatherNut]

I just won't post what I think just questions if I have any. I am no expert just was shocked to see an eye or what "could be" an eye. I will just follow like I usually do and leave it up to the experts but if any computer programming topics come up I can speak freely then lol

Don't stop posting just because your not an expert. The only to learn is to take chances, post what you see, and let the experts tell you if your correct or not. I started posting here under a different account back in 2005 and have been following and posting on this forum every summer since. I've learned alot through posting here and interacting with the experts here.

And as far as Programming... Check your Private messages... I sent you one concerning Programming as I'm a Programmer as well! lol

[Jevo]

0z GFS is running, but has Arthur making a stop by the OBX at 54 hours then out to sea.

[SFLcane]

@wxbrad The nemesis of all the 2013 Atlantic systems.. DRY air punching #Arthur in the gut tonight

[Aric Dunn]

0z GFS is running, but has Arthur making a stop by the OBX at 54 hours then out to sea.

JEVO !!!!

yeah though the gfs has more of deeper reflection.. likely indicating a more substantial system.

also the approach to the coast is such .. that all it will take is a wobble and its onshore..

[TheAustinMan]

Recon should be underway now or shortly (I've heard one is taxiing the runway). As a general reminder please redirect recon graphics to the associated recon thread http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116425&start=120 unless they really necessitate being here.

[HurriGuy]

Air is bottoming out and channeling away nicely lowering pressures, but that moderate dry air has seemed to expand again and is not helping poor Arthur wrap thunderstorms. Really thought it was making a nice shield earlier today to the northwest.

[MaineWeatherNut]

lol I'm sorry but you really can't tell me this is not the center of circulation and is full stacked...



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[Aric Dunn]

its beginning to look a little dis con-jointed.. clearly a little mid level shear popped in there ... should ebate though over the next couple hours..

[Jevo]

0z GFS is running, but has Arthur making a stop by the OBX at 54 hours then out to sea.

JEVO !!!!

yeah though the gfs has more of deeper reflection.. likely indicating a more substantial system.

also the approach to the coast is such .. that all it will take is a wobble and its onshore..

Mr Dunn... Look at you watching storms all the way from the Rockies

Yeah, I'm pleased with the initialization of this run. I'm not in ironman mode yet, so I'm going to skip the Euro.

I won't get to modelsy here, but if people are wondering what were are referring to, feel free to check the models thread.

[HurriGuy]

lol I'm sorry but you really can't tell me this is not the center of circulation and is full stacked...



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Time will tell with recon. Would not doubt llc is off to the west.

[lester]

lol I'm sorry but you really can't tell me this is not the center of circulation and is full stacked...



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the llc is west of that. Arthur is still unstacked

[Hammy]

If you stare at the high resolution radar loops and watch (it took several times) where everything is going, it appears to be in the process of stacking itself but still isn't there as the center looks like it's under the northwest "eyewall" if not just outside of it.

[Aric Dunn]

lol I'm sorry but you really can't tell me this is not the center of circulation and is full stacked...



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you cant looked at a radar that has the clutter removed its all quite important.. there a couple bands that are not quite where they are supposed to be.. have to give it time..

[got ants?]

MWN, I will say it LOOKS like an eye, but you also have to look at the west side of it, and lacking convection. I predict it will disappear shortly, unless the convection make a full wrap around.

As for the dry air coming in the NW quadrant, it looks like it itself is weakening, hence what looked lik an eye that popped up.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

I finally added a signature so now I can blurt out random dumb posts about that looking like an eye and that usually hurricanes have those or that I think it is and such lol.

[HurriGuy]

Just watching on radar, this dry slot is causing problems.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

I am starting to see what everyone is talking about so this thing was really weakening and it made it look like it had an eye WOW would of never guess that was the cause.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the banding pattern along with surface obs.. appears there is a bit of de-coupling..the curved band does not quite fit to the location the of "eye" though again could be a temporary hiccup in the mid level shear. recon will tell more.. but things are not too far off.. but enough to limit any RI




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[TheAustinMan]

Ouch, this dry air is punching Arthur where it hurts the most. We shall see how the storm recuperates.

[Aric Dunn]

I am starting to see what everyone is talking about so this thing was really weakening and it made it look like it had an eye WOW would of never guess that was the cause.

not weakening.. at all..