ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CarolinaNBANFL]

Wouldn't dry air getting into the heart of the storm weaken it? One minute it looks great and like it is forming an eye and then it looks like it is falling apart. This storm looked more impressive just 2 hours ago.

[Alyono]

isnt dry air that was the problem tonight.

This as unexpectedly rocked by mid level shear. The shear is abating, however

[got ants?]

Dry air would inhibit growth, not necessarily weaken it.

It is my novice opinion that the shear is weakening, and its just going through growing pains, as these thing do.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

It was hit hard you can look at the floater images and tell this thing was about to get its act together and then BAM! WHAM! SMACK! like one of those old batman movies it was hit with something that hurt.

[TheAustinMan]

isnt dry air that was the problem tonight.

This as unexpectedly rocked by mid level shear. The shear is abating, however

It's probably a bit more susceptible to the surrounding inhibitors thanks to its currently not-vertically stacked nature, but if this storm gets all stacked and neat it would probably be a bit tougher. Will be interesting to see what recon finds.

[Steve820]

I don't think dry air will inhibit it too much. I still predict a strong Category 1 out of Arthur before it rides along the east coast in time for the 4th of July.

[got ants?]

I just looked at the east coast IR image loop, and the outflow is looking pretty good. Its strting north of the "eye" and working around westward. This is indictive (IMHO) of weaking shear, and dry air.

[got ants?]

Not sure its okay to post this. If not, please delete....

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html

[got ants?]

*again? (double post)

Has something to do with hitting the back button and the pop up window (do you wish to continue?)

[Hammy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/mlb/flash-rb.html

Looks like the convection collapsed temporarily but is making a comeback and wrapping around the mid-level feature.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

It is trying so hard to get together. It is a fighter but may be seeing some signs that the storm is working out the kinks it had just 30 minutes ago which is impressive. Also, looks to be wobbling west which could just be my eyes.



Here is the visible floater

[islandgirl45]

I have a question about how Arthur is displayed on the Storm2K graphic. The graphic looks somewhat like the center of the storm is moving north over Florida, instead of roughly 60-100 miles offshore. Is that reflecting a particular model?

[hurricaneCW]

What really catches my eye is the big improvement with the outflow on its northern side, shear has clearly subsided. The convection or cold cloud tops won't necessarily be as impressive as it would be in the tropics but that doesn't take away from its power.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

Why not it is over the gulf stream and that is tropical type waters. Isn't it possible that colder clouds form there as well?

[MGC]

Eye like feature has started moving NW....should be an interesting recon mission......MGC

[CarolinaNBANFL]

I seen the same thing MGC I thought it was my eyes but it looks like it jogged NW instead of N.

[HurricaneBrain]

I have a question about how Arthur is displayed on the Storm2K graphic. It looks somewhat like the center of the storm is moving north over Florida, instead of roughly 60-100 miles offshore. Is that reflecting a particular model?

The cyclone symbol is enlarged purposely to catch attention of viewers and is not representative of the area a storm covers.

[islandgirl45]

I have a question about how Arthur is displayed on the Storm2K graphic. It looks somewhat like the center of the storm is moving north over Florida, instead of roughly 60-100 miles offshore. Is that reflecting a particular model?

The cyclone symbol is enlarged purposely to catch attention of viewers and is not representative of the area a storm covers.

I was referring to the graphic's relation to the storm's track, rather than the area covered by the storm.

[Aric Dunn]

so the mlc and llc are very near each other.. however... interesting thing has happened over the last hour the otherwise stationary system has begun to move.. I bet recon gets out there and find it relatively stacked..

[MaineWeatherNut]

Latest position of Recon:
3033N 08355W

Approaching the north-west quad in the next 10 to 20 minutes.