ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kludge]

Beats all I ever stepped in.

Every element known to the topics (dry air, SAL, shear, nino, water temp, ULL, yada yada yada,,,) beats these things down to hardly a discernable circulation... but yet there remains enough circ to recurve.

How did a cat 5 hurricane EVER form... and then how did it hit the mainland US? It now seems virtually impossible.

Thankfully.

[Hammy]

Did the center redevelop north/northeast of the previous position?

[Frank2]

Per the latest TCD it refers to what was mentioned last evening - for regeneration to occur you need to have something to regenerate - this system was never of that category and is at least partially why any strengthening has now leveled off or ended...

[CrazyC83]

The TCR for Bertha will be an interesting one for sure.

[Sanibel]

Bertha is obviously improving and getting ready to take off IMO.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Per the latest TCD it refers to what was mentioned last evening - for regeneration to occur you need to have something to regenerate - this system was never of that category and is at least partially why any strengthening has now leveled off or ended...

Frank, Bertha has continued to improve and it is moving into an area of even better UL conditions, what makes you think that any strengthening has leveled off?

HR Vis loop now shows that her LLC is becoming more defined and getting closer to her MLC.

The circled area is where very clearly her LLC is seen:

[pgoss11]

Last few frames looks to be turning more north. Hard to really tell with a poorly defined center.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Center appears obvious, at least to me, on this loop.

Live IR for after sunset: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

color: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10

[gatorcane]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Center appears obvious, at least to me, on this loop.

Live IR for after sunset: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

color: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10

Thanks Mark - from these good links you posted, the center is obvious to me too and more so than earlier today. Convection on the increase, warm SSTs, moist environment now, some shear is still around but looks to be lessening.

I am still calling for it to gradually organize further and intensify through the remaining lifetime of this system until it becomes extratropical and/or merges with the mid-latitude front later in the forecast period. NHC forecast looks like a good call to me.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Beats all I ever stepped in.

Every element known to the topics (dry air, SAL, shear, nino, water temp, ULL, yada yada yada,,,) beats these things down to hardly a discernable circulation... but yet there remains enough circ to recurve.

How did a cat 5 hurricane EVER form... and then how did it hit the mainland US? It now seems virtually impossible.

Thankfully.

I'm a little confused about why you think this can't recurve. It's now beginning to improve in organization and is expected to be a strong T.S. east of Hatteras and then possibly a hurricane after that. That is what will be doing the recurve on Wednesday, not a non-tropical entity.

[ConvergenceZone]

Beats all I ever stepped in.

Every element known to the topics (dry air, SAL, shear, nino, water temp, ULL, yada yada yada,,,) beats these things down to hardly a discernable circulation... but yet there remains enough circ to recurve.

How did a cat 5 hurricane EVER form... and then how did it hit the mainland US? It now seems virtually impossible.

Thankfully.

I'm a little confused about why you think this can't recurve. It's now beginning to improve in organization and is expected to be a strong T.S. east of Hatteras and then possibly a hurricane after that. That is what will be doing the recurve on Wednesday, not a non-tropical entity.

I think it's because of the assumption that is often presented here that if a system stays really weak, then it tends to move much more westward than if it develops....Perhaps that's not even true, it just seems to be true sometimes.....

[Frank2]

NDG, I was quoting the 5 pm TCD, below:

After Bertha's cloud pattern became a little better organized
earlier today, there has been little change in its overall
appearance over the past several hours.

[TheAustinMan]

NOAA recon has recently documented a pressure of 1005.9 millibars at 15 kt flight level winds, and 1007.3 millibars where flight level winds were calm.

[MGC]

Many of you wrote Bertha's obituary a bit prematurely the past couple of days ago. The one thing I have learned since watching the tropics since 1964 is to never give up on a system till it has completely dissipated. Such was the case with Bertha....matter of fact, Bertha's best days are still ahead. Bertha will be finally moving into an environment much more conductive to intensification since the system first organized. I'd conjecture that Bertha has an excellent chance to become a hurricane. The little engine that could.......MGC

[Steve820]

I hope that Bertha might become a hurricane in the long run. It looks like it has the potential! Hopefully the Lesser Antilles didn't receive so much damage.

[znel52]

Some people have been trying to write this storm off since day 1. It's amazing how it has been able to persist through all of the unfavorable conditions it has endured. It has always been interesting to me why one wave like Bertha can persist and then one wave directly behind it going through the same conditions cannot.

[ozonepete]

Some people have been trying to write this storm off since day 1. It's amazing how it has been able to persist through all of the unfavorable conditions it has endured. It has always been interesting to me why one wave like Bertha can persist and then one wave directly behind it going through the same conditions cannot.

Yeah it is probably why a lot of us love this stuff - the challenge Though I would say that in your example the second wave undoubtedly had some different conditions that we just don't have the technology or equipment in place to find yet.

[ozonepete]

Convection still increasing. Organization slowly but clearly improving.

[NDG]

AF recon finding Bertha a little stronger so far.

231000 2312N 07228W 8425 01612 0171 +153 +153 179036 038 044 011 00
231030 2314N 07228W 8436 01604 0171 +157 +157 183036 036 043 011 00
231100 2315N 07229W 8433 01605 0164 +152 +151 185039 041 042 009 00
231130 2317N 07230W 8434 01602 0153 +158 +157 183042 042 043 007 00
231200 2319N 07231W 8432 01601 0155 +153 +153 180039 041 044 009 00
231230 2321N 07232W 8432 01604 0163 +153 +153 189040 041 044 010 00
231300 2323N 07233W 8432 01600 0164 +157 +157 191041 042 047 017 00
231330 2324N 07233W 8431 01597 0159 +161 +161 191040 041 047 024 00
$$

[galaxy401]

High SMFR winds caught by recon but very likely they're contaminated since flight winds don't support it.