Alyono wrote:lets not forget Dean 7 years ago. The models had it passing well north of the islands.
It ended up striking Martinique as a cat 2 and quickly became a cat 5 in the Caribbean.
Allen, which occurred at a very similar time of year in 1980, went through the Windwards as a strong 3 and also became a 5 in the east Caribbean
Going west does not guarantee a weak system
Dean and Allen had very different conditions awaiting them in the Caribbean.
From Dean's 10th advisory:
BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE.
NHC discussions concerning Allen noted an retrograding upper-level low north of Puerto Rico. This feature likely helped to enhance the storm's poleward outflow channel and allow for significant intensification.
This year, the Caribbean is dominated by surface trade winds on the order of 20-25kts, and upper-level winds on the order of 25-35 knots. If 93L enters the central Caribbean, it will die.
