CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

[somethingfunny]

This part is concerning Julio's path

Global model fields are now indicating that a break in
the ridge currently to the north of Hawaii may fill in just enough
over the next few days to keep Julio from turning northwestward at
the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly
clustered for the first 48 hours. After that time, the ECMWF model
is a noticeable outlier compared to the rest of the models, showing
Julio taking a more northern route as it is steered around a more
strongly depicted mid-level high northeast of Hawaii. The updated
NHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies
just to the northeast of the multi-model consensus TVCE after 72
hours.

Interestingly, the Big Island is entirely outside of the forecast cone now, but Maui Oahu and Kauai are in there.

[WeatherGuesser]

Julio might miss completely as of now.

[meriland23]

It depends if it favors the ECMWF models which say the weakness will be very strong, causing a more northward turn or favors the GFS which is strengthening the weakness to a point where every model run takes it more westward towards Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Depends on what Iselle does.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 2014080712, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1357W, 85, 976, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 60, 80, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014080712, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1357W, 85, 976, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014080712, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1357W, 85, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,

[Yellow Evan]

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 959.6mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -1.2C Cloud Region Temp : -61.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Julio has strengthened and may pose a threat to Hawaii. It is looking well on Satellite Imagery.

Satellite Imagery
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Synopsis for Julio and other systems:http://goo.gl/nkKxNm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 071438
TCDEP5

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

Despite moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Julio is
continuing to strengthen. The eye has become better defined during
the past few hours, and the cloud top temperatures in the eyewall
have cooled. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt
from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, and objective estimates from the
UW-CIMSS ADT are near 100 kt. The initial intensity is increased
to 90 kt based on a blend of these data. The cirrus outflow is good
to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere.

Julio has turned a little to the left and the initial motion is now
280/16. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge
for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to
west-northwestward trajectory. During the first 72 hours, the
track guidance is tightly clustered near the new forecast track with
the notable exception of the GFDL model, which forecasts a track
near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come
into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii
will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should
continue a west-northwesterly to westward motion. This has reduced,
but not eliminated, the spread in the track guidance at 96 and 120
hours. The new track forecast is just south of the previous forecast
through 72 hours, then is adjusted farther south from the previous
track at the later forecast times. The new forecast lies near or
just to the north of the multi-model consensus and the center of the
guidance envelope.

The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical
wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone
passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. All of the
intensity guidance forecasts a gradual weakening during that time,
and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The intensity
forecast becomes more uncertain after 72 hours as Julio starts
moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During this period,
the statistical guidance is forecasting a weaker storm than the
dynamical guidance, and the the large-scale models have some
disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part
of the forecast is nudged upward as a compromise between the two
model camps. Overall, the new forecast lies close to the intensity
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.9N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.3N 138.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 23.5N 158.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 24.5N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 2014080718, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1370W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 70, 80, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014080718, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1370W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 40, 40, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014080718, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1370W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 15, 20, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,

[supercane4867]

Julio is likely about to become our fifth major hurricane of the season

[CrazyC83]

5 major hurricanes by August 7...is that a record?

[RL3AO]

5 major hurricanes by August 7...is that a record?

1992 had its 5th in mid-July but #6 didn't happen until early-September.

[Kingarabian]

Julio looks amazing and frightening at the same time.

Low shear forecast and a more moist environment. Hopefully Iselle leaves some kind of weakness to really force Julio to the north.

[supercane4867]

Possible R.I.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with 95-100 knts. I'd expect the NHC to do the same.

[RL3AO]

Eye is very very warm especially for a strong 2/weak 3. Convection isn't anything special. It go with 100kt right now.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah the last SAB was still T4.5, which seems low but worth evaluating. 95 kt is my best guess.

[RL3AO]

Its a look better on visible then on IR type storm.

[meriland23]

Wasn't the NHC predicting it to weaken from here on out? It looks significantly stronger since last update.