EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

3z discussion is gonna be interesting. I could see anything from 60-75 knts.

[Kingarabian]

3z discussion is gonna be interesting. I could see anything from 60-75 knts.

ADT still likes it and has a CI of 4.7/82kts. SAB is 77kts. Interesting to see for sure.

Unless they see the warming of the cloud tops as a weakening trend, I think they'll bump it to 70kts. But you know (I could be wrong here), since when did a Hurricane need to have insane cold cloud tops? After all, it did switch from a CDO to an eye. You would normally see super cold cloud tops associated with forming tropical storms that are developing a CDO. We saw this perfectly with Iselle. Warm tops, but a well organized storm.

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[Yellow Evan]

3z discussion is gonna be interesting. I could see anything from 60-75 knts.

ADT still likes it and has a CI of 4.7/82kts. SAB is 77kts. Interesting to see for sure.

Unless they see the warming of the cloud tops as a weakening trend, I think they'll bump it to 70kts. But you know (I could be wrong here), since when did a Hurricane need to have insane cold cloud tops? After all, it did switch from a CDO to an eye. You would normally see super cold cloud tops associated with forming tropical storms that are developing a CDO. We saw this perfectly with Iselle. Warm tops, but a well organized storm.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'd say it is ~65 knts now, but I think it was 70-75 knts earlier.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Despite a low resolution, one can see on the 2326z AMSU pass that the low-level circulation has become displaced northeast of the deepest convection.

65 knots may be generous.

[Yellow Evan]

It's possible, but I'd be little surprised if they went lower than 65 knts based on Dvorak.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

Karina's structure has degraded significantly since the last
advisory. A 2326 UTC AMSU pass showed that the low-level center has
become displaced from the deep convection due to 20-25 kt of
easterly shear, as diagnosed by CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin. In addition, cloud top temperatures have warmed during
the past few hours. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on
the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate, but this could be a little
generous.

The recent evolution of Karina's structure makes the intensity
forecast quite tricky. The SHIPS and LGEM models appear to be
responding to less of a positive contribution from persistence and
GOES satellite predictors, and show much less strengthening than
before. The GFDL and HWRF, on the other hand, continue their
pattern of showing more immediate weakening. Since vertical shear
is expected to remain rather strong for another 36-48 hours, Karina
may have a difficult time recovering. Therefore, the new NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered for the entire forecast period
but still lies above all of the guidance, especially beyond 24
hours. If Karina cannot recover soon, however, subsequent forecasts
will likely require additional decreases to fall in line with the
preponderance of the intensity model solutions.

The mid-tropospheric pattern consists of a mid-level high centered
over the southwestern U.S. with a ridge extending west-southwestward
over the Pacific. The ridge is steering Karina westward, or
270/11 kt, and the subtropical ridge is expected to keep the cyclone
on a westward or west-northwestward track through the forecast
period. Karina could begin to interact with one or two adjacent
disturbances toward the end of the forecast period, possibly forcing
it to move west-southwestward and at a slower speed by day 5. The
track guidance envelope shifted to the north on this cycle, but it
was not enough to require a significant change from the previous
official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.1N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.4N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 18.4N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

Yeah. Seriously displaced.

-85C cloud tops are back over the center now. Let's see what happens.

[hurricanes1234]

Karina is definitely weakening this evening. The eye that was visible on conventional satellite imagery earlier is gone, and the low-level circulation is starting to become discernible under upper-level clouds if you look at a RGB loop.

Upper-level winds have presented themselves as more of an issue than models indicated several days ago. My forecast of a major hurricane from this will very likely bust.

http://i.imgur.com/BWGfJC0.gi

I most certainly agree. Despite the ongoing trend of stronger than expected storms, I don't think it'll be able to recover from this. Perhaps it could, but I think it's unlikely. 20 knots of shear is quite high.

[Equilibrium]

Does not have MJO assistance hence the reason it will really struggle to survive against any unfavourable elements .

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Karina is definitely weakening this evening. The eye that was visible on conventional satellite imagery earlier is gone, and the low-level circulation is starting to become discernible under upper-level clouds if you look at a RGB loop.

Upper-level winds have presented themselves as more of an issue than models indicated several days ago. My forecast of a major hurricane from this will very likely bust.

http://i.imgur.com/BWGfJC0.gi

I most certainly agree. Despite the ongoing trend of stronger than expected storms, I don't think it'll be able to recover from this. Perhaps it could, but I think it's unlikely. 20 knots of shear is quite high.

20 knts of shear is borderline strong. Shear is probs close to 25 knts. SHIPS is likely overintizaling. Still, SHIPS forecasts shear to decrease. If this does not become strong, this is a big win for the GDFL and HWRF. Still, don't over analyze favorable conditions. I struggle to see any reason why this won't intensify later on if shear relaxes bearing any interaction.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Does not have MJO assistance hence the reason it will really to survive struggle against any unfavourable elements .

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Karina doesn't, but MJO is retrograding it appears. Granted, others like Levi have argued that MJO does not retrograde.



Furthermore, there is still a CCKW it appears. Suppressed MJO is over the Pacific for the first time in months. MJO has been either incoherent or over the Pacific for ages.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear due to the high is killing it.

Shear over both this area (since the high is likely to move out of the way and weaken the monsoon) and is headed for lower shear regardless.

[Kingarabian]

It's rapidly weakening now.

This could be for the record books. Quickest hurricane to depression ever?

[Equilibrium]

Furthermore, there is still a CC KW it appears. Suppressed MJO is over the Pacific for the first time in months. MJO has been either incoherent or over the Pacific for ages.

Disagree Evan there is no favourable CC KW in the region the active kelvin wave is in the west pacific . Can you point out the favourable CCKW you refer to.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Furthermore, there is still a CC KW it appears. Suppressed MJO is over the Pacific for the first time in months. MJO has been either incoherent or over the Pacific for ages.

Disagree Evan there is no favourable CC KW in the region the active kelvin wave is in the west pacific . Can you point out the favourable CCKW you refer to.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

What's that blue line then? Ventrice's graphics have always confused me.

[Yellow Evan]

It's rapidly weakening now.

Indeed. Despite the shear, you'd think conditions are conducive enough for a steady state systems.

It's not very small, nor near the ITCZ, nor is it's LLC getting pushed onshore while the MLC stays offshore.

Those are the 3 reasons why EPAC storms weaken unexpectedly.

[Yellow Evan]

After looking at it a bit, looks like it hit a mini-wall of shear. It's outflow boundaries were expanding, so it may have inherited a tad of very dry air to its north.

I no longer think this will become a major, but this should rebound sooner or latter.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't even know what to say about Karina except wow. Talk about a struggling system.

[Equilibrium]

nada Evan zilch. Kelvin is in the Indo. Probs a good thing for Hawaii i seen a non public model a few days ago suggesting this would be a cat3.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

nada Evan zilch. Kelvin is in the Indo. Probs a good thing for Hawaii i seen a non public model a few days ago suggesting this would be a cat3.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

What do the Blues on Ventrice's site mean then?

I don't understand your pessimism. Shear is forecast to relax considerably in a day or so, so assuming it survives this, it has a decent shot to intensify. It wasn't until the recent collapse that I did not think this system was going to become a Cat 3. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.