ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Convection fireing this morning..TW's appear to be merging

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Alyono]

the models are not showing a north motion. They are showing the center forming north of the NHC initial position

[SFLcane]

the models are not showing a north motion. They are showing the center forming north of the NHC initial position

hence the northward shift in 12z guidance

[Frank2]

I just noticed the very large strato-cu dry air field to the north of the disturbance - both are moving in tandem...

[ravyrn]

Convection fireing this morning..TW's appear to be merging

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

If you're going to post images and comment on them, please take the 20 seconds it takes to upload them to a filesharing site such as imgur.com. It's quicky, easy, and free! Otherwise, people coming later in the day or day after will have no clue what you're talking about. Here is an uploaded copy of the gif you posted: http://i.imgur.com/IzSut3R.gif Please edit your post and use this link instead if you don't mind. Thanks!

[Sanibel]

Seems the second wave is absorbing the first and relocating the center up to the 11-12N position. The poleward center usually dominates.

[tolakram]

I see some inflow starting on the right blob, but even that is a stretch IMO. Hard for me to make anything out of this area.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-51&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[canes04]

Just a matter of time folks.

[HURRICANELONNY]

If it develops fast after the leewards then I think it will be a fish. If it slower to develop then all bets off.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jlauderdal]

This is what is basically is going to be happening over the next 24-48 hrs as suggested by the HWRF and European model, 96L is not going to do much until the TW behind it catches up to it and a new area of low pressure reforms further north, IMO.



Maybe the sharp 90 degree turn the models are showing is actually the center forming north of the current location.

nice try, what you guys smoking up I-95?

Have you looked at the HWRF and European closely before you come here and insulting us!!!!

yep, looked at hwrf, euro, even bastardis chinese model...still dont think there will be 90 degree turn. sorry you were insulted and anyone else, blown and I are old forum buddies so hopefully he wasnt insulted.

[abajan]

That's mighty heavy convection firing to the east of Trinidad & Tobago.

[Janie2006]

Last night I saw a friend of mine of Facebook posting the GFS run and going on about a strong hurricane in the Gulf. I had to point out to her that this (a) wasn't a forecast, (b) that it was a model run 192 hours out, and (c) there were too many variables to say with any certainty exactly what would happen yet, if anything. This is a person that normally couldn't care less if it rained frogs. It was something she saw on a wx page or NHC's page and she just ran with it. Gah. Sorta like a microcosm of how the media does things.

Meanwhile, it does seem that the models will have something to focus on soon. If anything, they sure are sniffing out some mischief.

[micktooth]

I see a lot of convection. Where do you all think the center of circulation is trying to establish itself?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Convection fireing this morning..TW's appear to be merging

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Wow, you can really see them "reaching" out at each other in that loop.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Maybe an east coast threat is still not off the table. Really, anywhere from Texas to Bermuda is in play, and people should be paying this storm it's due attention. Preperation is key when it comes to tropical cyclones.

[Weatherboy1]

Looks to me like 96 is finally winning the tug of war with the wave to the east in terms of developing. If that is what is happening, the system could finally develop into a TC (my opinion, as always!)

[deltadog03]

Its either out to sea with this one, or GOM or maybe southern FL IMO as of now. I really couldn't give you an idea on how strong. I could see this as a hurricane either way.

[chaser1]

I see a lot of convection. Where do you all think the center of circulation is trying to establish itself?

If I were forced to try and pick a point where a COC might be forming, I'd likely go with somewhere close to 12N & 52W (give or take a degree)

[Blown Away]

"jlauderdal"yep, looked at hwrf, euro, even bastardis chinese model...still dont think there will be 90 degree turn. sorry you were insulted and anyone else, blown and I are old forum buddies so hopefully he wasnt insulted.

Geez, Jlauderdal shows up and everybody in a tizzy... You always make a grand entrance to the hurricane season, lol... I've been married for 16 years, so I take Jlauderdal's comments as compliments...

His comments were all good, just a little back n forth amongst Florida east coast forum buddies...

Back to 96L, it's seems like this will be another system taking the painful journey over the big islands and causing havoc...

[northjaxpro]

I will say this. The troughs this season so far have been anomulously strong and very frequent across the Eastern U.S. and Western Atlantic. That has been the trend all season long. Now, another trough is coming down south off the U.S. East Coast by early next week. If the trend continues and the trough remains anomulously strong and erodes the ridge early next week, 96L , if it strengthens, will be influenced by the weakness.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.