ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Not bad looking vorticity at 850mbs south of PR.

[tropicwatch]

The wind shear is something else though:

[cycloneye]

Cloudiness and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected
to remain unfavorable for development during the next day or two
while the system moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
However, environmental conditions could become conducive for some
development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

.

[Hammy]

Judging by cloud motion, this is a pretty sharp wave for the amount of shear it's under (and go figure it's between ASCAT passes)

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N66W TO 10N69W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 63W-73W.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, shear levels drop off considerably in the next couple of days and then we watch possible development. Good chance this may get in the BOC/Western GOM next week.

[tropicwatch]

It doesn't look like it will be long before it comes out of the heavy wind shear.

[tropicwatch]

The shear is still 30 to 40kts but there has been a blow up of convection.

[gatorcane]

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the east-central
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level
winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the
next day or two while the system moves across the central and
western Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could
become conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

There is plenty of moisture in the Caribbean for the wave to work with. This will be reactivated very soon.

[bahamaswx]

Looks too good to not be an invest to me.

[wyq614]

The Caribbean sea has more moisture now and the SST is favorable, the shear is dropping and the convection is firing, so this may not have to wait until having passed 85W (even 80W) to develop into a TD or even a TS. Not wishcasting just my humble opinion.

To find something useful, please turn to official sources.

[bamajammer4eva]

The Caribbean sea has more moisture now and the SST is favorable, the shear is dropping and the convection is firing, so this may not have to wait until having passed 85W (even 80W) to develop into a TD or even a TS. Not wishcasting just my humble opinion.

To find something useful, please turn to official sources.

If it developed sooner than the models show, track would possibly be different also.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014


A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...ALONG 72W...THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...AND
REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ARE COVERED BY MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS.

[cycloneye]

I thought they would increase the % but stayed the same.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
exepected to remain unfavorable for development during the
next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become
more conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
.

[tropicwatch]

Maybe at 2pm the shear might have diminished some more by that time.

[NDG]

With King Euro backing away with development of this TW is the reason why the NHC is keeping it with such a low chance.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the shear has let up over this area south of the DR.

[cycloneye]

They may reactivate later today

[alienstorm]

In and around 16N and 72W there may be a LLC developing per the early high resolution
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes