ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[floridasun78]

wfor weatherman say wont chace become td because got short time before coming over fl longer take get better less time become td or ts

[USTropics]

It appears to me to have multiple vorticies rotating around the center. The last few visible images show one taking form just north of Eleuthera Island. CIMSS vorticity overlay also indicating this is the strongest area for vorticity. I placed a red arrow indicating what I'm referring to:

http://i.imgur.com/4Ls9TTH.jpg

thats an eddy moving around the main low I believe

It will die off quickly, it's more of an indication that the low level circulation is not quite there yet.

Also, as far as I know, there is actually no essential difference between eddies and vortices. Vortex is used when you look at the individual case and eddy is used primarily in plural.

[NDG]

[gatorcane]

wfor weatherman say wont chace become td because got short time before coming over fl longer take get better less time become td or ts

I certainly would not be making such statements. If we see a dramatic increase in convection soon or later tonight, could get going looking at the conditions it has to work with. The key will be will we see this convection take off or not?

[blp]

wfor weatherman say wont chace become td because got short time before coming over fl longer take get better less time become td or ts

I certainly would not be making such statements. If we see a dramatic increase in convection soon or later tonight, could get going looking at the conditions it has to work with. The key will be will we see this convection take off or not?

Yea no doubt the convection is key. It is still very weak IMO. Need the nice burst to tighten the broad low up. What it has going for it is the environment and a better low level structure than last night so we will see what happens.

[tropicwatch]

Several weather stations on Great Abaco are reporting westerly winds now, as earlier they were from the north. This is a good indication that there is a surface circulation present.

[weatherfanatic]

I agree, I think this storm has a good shot. The spin is going under the convection nicely, bigger blowup than expected today, lets see how it does with the nighttime if it keeps up the convection and forms LLC we may have a weak TS before gets to FL. BUT as I said in models section, IMO the GOM is going to be key in how strong it gets on that turnback and then if CMC is at all right the east coast all the way up needs to pay attention next week.

[USTropics]

As someone mentioned earlier, it is still elongated at the upper levels. Here's the 500mb vort (about 1 hour old):

[Senobia]

That backloop looks crazy. What's in the steering pattern that would make it do that?

[tailgater]

It appears to me to have multiple vorticies rotating around the center. The last few visible images show one taking form just north of Eleuthera Island. CIMSS vorticity overlay also indicating this is the strongest area for vorticity. I placed a red arrow indicating what I'm referring to:

http://i.imgur.com/4Ls9TTH.jpg

In my experience those overlays are not always centered, I see nothing in that area.

[Hurricaneman]

That backloop looks crazy. What's in the steering pattern that would make it do that?

IMO it would probably be a strong trough that would do such a thing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[wxman57]

It appears to me to have multiple vorticies rotating around the center. The last few visible images show one taking form just north of Eleuthera Island. CIMSS vorticity overlay also indicating this is the strongest area for vorticity. I placed a red arrow indicating what I'm referring to:

http://i.imgur.com/4Ls9TTH.jpg

In my experience those overlays are not always centered, I see nothing in that area.

Careful. Plots of vorticity won't be centered over convection. The convection will be found in the area of positive vorticity advection.

[Senobia]

That backloop looks crazy. What's in the steering pattern that would make it do that?

IMO it would probably be a strong trough that would do such a thing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Like the cold front that's going to push off the Texas coast this weekend?

[SFLcane]

Recon ready to go...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 102130
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0530 PM EDT WED 10 SEPTEMBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-102 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS...ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 11/1730Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 11/1445Z
D. 27.0N 77.5W
E. 11/1700Z TO 11/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 12/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 12/0215Z
D. 27.0N 78.5W
E. 12/0500Z TO 12/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

[NDG]

I think the reason why the GFS and the Euro do not develop much if any, 92L, is because is going to be getting squeezed between the Southern US heat ridge and the ULL, and it may very well get sheared away by UL NE winds by at least Friday.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon first flight takes off tomorrow around 11am. NHC is taking notice. I think the development chances will be upped to 30%/40% at 8pm, surprised we didn't get a STWO this afternoon.

[USTropics]

It appears to me to have multiple vorticies rotating around the center. The last few visible images show one taking form just north of Eleuthera Island. CIMSS vorticity overlay also indicating this is the strongest area for vorticity. I placed a red arrow indicating what I'm referring to:

http://i.imgur.com/4Ls9TTH.jpg

In my experience those overlays are not always centered, I see nothing in that area.

Careful. Plots of vorticity won't be centered over convection. The convection will be found in the area of positive vorticity advection.

I completely understand, I was not trying to say that a center is forming in this area, rather that multiple vortices are rotating around a broad center, and that one spun up and would likely quickly die in this area. Coupled with that outflow boundary heading west and it's not a sign of a quickly organizing system.

[wxman57]

Was working on a study since 7am today, so just looked at this disturbance around 3:45pm. In my opinion, there is evidence that a low-level circulation center has developed. It's not strong, but I think it's present. Convection remains weak and disorganized, located generally NW of the weak LLC. I see a large outflow boundary moving outward in the western half of the disturbance, a sign of collapsing squalls.

Both the EC and GFS carry the vorticity south of west across Florida and the Gulf, reaching NE Mexico to south Texas next Monday afternoon (GFS) or Tuesday (EC). Neither indicates any significant development (just a wave after passing Florida). A 20-30% chance of development looks good for now, but I am concerned that it already does appear to have a LLC. It should move over Florida on Friday morning, so we'll see if that LLC can persist. Conditions in the Gulf don't look TOO hostile toward development, but there's the issue with the cold front reaching the NW Gulf on Saturday.

Both the GFS and Euro indicate that the front will stall along the TX coast on Saturday. Will it? If it doesn't stall, then the disturbance may not continue its westward trek. What about dry air moving out over the Gulf being ingested by the disturbance by late Sunday? That could certainly be an inhibiting factor.

Something to keep a close eye on for the next 4-5 days. It doesn't look like a hurricane threat - for now.

[blp]

thanks for your observation.

[SFLcane]

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFFSHORE.
3. REMARKS: NASA 872 RESEARCH FLIGHT AT 12/2200Z