EPAC: SIMON - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

TXPZ27 KNES 050021
TCSENP
A. 19E (SIMON)
B. 05/0000Z
C. 21.1N
D. 115.5W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. OW EYE
SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTING IN AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5
AND A DT OF 6.0. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0 FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...VELASCO

[supercane4867]

Cat.4

EP, 19, 2014100500, , BEST, 0, 211N, 1156W, 115, 946, HU

[CrazyC83]

TXPZ27 KNES 050021
TCSENP

A. 19E (SIMON)

B. 05/0000Z

C. 21.1N

D. 115.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. OW EYE
SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTING IN AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5
AND A DT OF 6.0. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0 FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[CrazyC83]

The first advisory didn't even want to intensify Simon to a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks almost 6.5 worthy. Appearance tells me this is 120-125. However, I refuse to believe this is higher than 115.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 OCT 2014 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 21:08:51 N Lon : 115:31:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 944.8mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +2.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.1 degrees

[CrazyC83]

Unless the ADT goes higher I doubt they would go above 115. If the ADT ticks up to 6.2 or 6.3 then maybe 120 kt.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

One of the better looking eyes I've ever seen.

[supercane4867]

Very visible stadium effect

[Cyclenall]

This Epac season is truly "off the chain" as they say . Its CDO with that tiny eye is unique.

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014

...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...
...THE 6TH OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 115.9W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...215
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SIMON PROBABLY HAS REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD SOON BEGIN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWEST MEXICO. STARTING
ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014

...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...
...THE 6TH OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 115.9W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

[WeatherGuesser]

HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014

After the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft left Simon earlier today,
satellite images revealed that the eye became quite distinct and
surrounded by very deep convection. Dvorak subjective and
objective numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS jumped to T6.0 on
the Dvorak scale. Based on this data, the initial intensity was
adjusted upward to 115 kt. This makes Simon the 6th Category Four
Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale this season.

Simon reached 115 kt just before entering a region of cool waters,
and as we speak, a portion of the circulation is already doing so.
Most of the global models increase the shear as the cyclone moves
northward toward the mid-latitude westerlies. Based on these two
factors, the NHC forecast calls for significant weakening during the
next few days. In fact, if Simon reaches Baja California, it is
likely to be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression.

Simon is already turning and is now moving toward the northwest or
315 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge that has been steering Simon is
forecast to weaken and shift southward. This pattern will move Simon
northward until the cyclone encounters the mid-latitude westerlies,
and a recurvature toward Baja California will then begin in 48
hours. One large uncertainty is how fast Simon will move after
recurvature. The GFS and the ECMWF are now in better agreement in
accelerating the cyclone, but many of the other models are not quite
so fast. The NHC forecast is not as fast as the GFS/ECMWF pair at
this time, but I would not be surprised if a faster motion has to be
indicated in the next forecast.

The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring
another heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 21.4N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 117.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 24.4N 117.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 25.2N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 27.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, and it just barely made it to Category 4! The season is looking to set records. When last was our "S" storm so intense?

[CrazyC83]

The EPAC has had more Cat 4+ storms in 2014 than the Atlantic has had total tropical cyclones (including depressions)...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow, and it just barely made it to Category 4! The season is looking to set records. When last was our "S" storm so intense?

Sergio 1982. It peaked at 110 knots, very close to category 4 threshold.

[Macrocane]

Can this season get any more interesting?

It's like watching 2004 or 2005 in the Atlantic, with less landfalling systems of course but just as interesting. Intensity forecast has been a headache for the NHC, they will surely learn some lessons from this season.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The EPAC has had more Cat 4+ storms in 2014 than the Atlantic has had total tropical cyclones (including depressions)...

ASTONISHING number.. 6 tropical cyclones in the ATL, 7 category 4 hurricanes in the EPAC and possibly 6 super typhoons in the WPAC if Vongfong verifies

[Ntxw]

Man, and the Kelvin/MJO wave isn't even here yet (just wait a week). When good conditions wants a storm, it's going to get a storm! simon has propelled the EPAC seasonal ACE to good company all of which are during the active era. Could jump 1991 soon. I bet Simon isn't the last cat 4 this year here.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC has had more Cat 4+ storms in 2014 than the Atlantic has had total tropical cyclones (including depressions)...

The EPAC has had 9 storms stronger than any ATL storm since 2011.