ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, could we have the latest sat pic or loop for 90L ? Thanks .

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, could we have the latest sat pic or loop for 90L ? Thanks .

Visible image at 7:00 AM AST.

[Gustywind]

Latest TWD...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG 57W OR
ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 10 KT. HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXCEPT N OF 17N
WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME DUST ARE DEPICTED IN GOES-R IMAGERY. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
17N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 54W-61W. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAINS AS MEDIUM.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING LATER
TODAY.

[cycloneye]

70%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located about 275 miles east of the Leeward Islands
has continued to increase and become better organized during the
past several hours. Environmental and ocean conditions are expected
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form later today while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
move across the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

70%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located about 275 miles east of the Leeward Islands
has continued to increase and become better organized during the
past several hours. Environmental and ocean conditions are expected
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form later today while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
move across the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

This feature continues to organize very seriously, no doubts now, looks like we could deal with a TD or TS tonight?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014101212, , BEST, 0, 167N, 574W, 30, 1009, LO

[Gustywind]

Look at those numbers... a TD is maybe forming!

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1145 UTC 16.6N 57.4W T1.5/1.5 90L
12/0545 UTC 16.2N 56.2W T1.0/1.0 90L

[abajan]

Look at those numbers... a TD is maybe forming!

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1145 UTC 16.6N 57.4W T1.5/1.5 90L
12/0545 UTC 16.2N 56.2W T1.0/1.0 90L

Yeah, I think it will be upgraded to TD at 11:00 AM. Not sure why the TWO is just 70%/70% instead of something like 70%/90% though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

Look at those numbers... a TD is maybe forming!

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1145 UTC 16.6N 57.4W T1.5/1.5 90L
12/0545 UTC 16.2N 56.2W T1.0/1.0 90L

Yeah, I think it will be upgraded to TD at 11:00 AM. Not sure why the TWO is just 70%/70% instead of something like 70%/90% though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like Abajan more and more, agree with you.

[NDG]

90L now has a nice mid level circulation, low pressure at the surface is starting to get better organized.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[pgoss11]

Looks like a TD. Do we have an ASCAT pass yet?

[floridasun78]

look like wont affect se bahamas but leedwards be safe their and puerto rico too

[jaguarjace]

Looking good.

[Dean4Storms]

That is the best looking 70% Tropical Disturbance/ Invest I've ever seen. I'm betting already a TS near the center.

[floridasun78]

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bas100.png look like miss that area

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook up to 90%-90%


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system
since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

[SFLcane]

Who would have thought we'd see something you normally in the central atlantic in mid august on oct 12. What a season

[Gustywind]

Here we are... with at least a TD or even a TS Gonzalo in the making! Islanders, let's monitor more than carefully the situation.

[msbee]

:uarrow: Here we are... with at least a TD or even a TS Gonzalo in the making! Islanders, let's monitor more than carefully the situation.

Yes we must monitor this closely. As you know Gusty even a tropical wave can cause serious flooding and problems in our islands.

[cycloneye]

Who would have thought we'd see something you normally in the central atlantic in mid august on oct 12. What a season

MDR finally!