ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Arthur is starting to look a little better than a few hours ago but it definitely ingested some mid level dry air from the north which there's still some UL convergence going on near the Carolinas and until trough gets closer UL divergence ahead of Arthur will not get going to moisten up the atmosphere ahead of it.
Currently all of the weather with Arthur is in its eastern semicircle with light winds across the FL east coast.

[TheAustinMan]

Visible this morning:

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Arthur



Just when he was getting his act together. Mid level shear comes and kicks him where it hurts. Looks like he is all right now though. convection is wrapping around the centre.

[OuterBanker]

I wonder when/if Dare is going to evacuate Hatteras Island, if they lose rt 12 and strand the 4th July vacationers it would be a public relations nightmare.

Next update from Dare County EM 10:30 this am. No win situation. No shelters. Ocracoke only accesable by ferry. Bridge across Oregon inlet been a problem for years. Evac probably not an option. Slight left track (like GFS) will cause real problems.

[TheStormExpert]

The mid-level dry air intrusion was enough to slow expected intensification by the NHC and have them drop peak intensity from 90mph to 85mph.

[NDG]

Looks like pressure went up to 999mb on the latest pass by the Recon.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

To me this is the most important part of the last discussion released by the NHC.


"The track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that
direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours."

I am starting to get real antsy about first landfall being Bald Head Island or Southport NC and raking up the coast.

[hurricanes1234]

In my opinion, this doesn't look as good as it did last night. Does anyone think it will weaken in the near future?

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RevDodd]

"The track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that
direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours."

If I read that correctly, the NHC still expects the trough to arrive in time to pull Arthur off the coastline. Unless the storm motion increases, or goes WAY west, I don't see much of an increased risk for the south NC beaches.

[tropicwatch]

Storms are building again around the center of Arthur.

[Frank2]

After that wild burst of convection last evening things have settled down this morning - as others said the system has ingested quite a bit of dry air.

P.S. The weather here in South Florida is much improved after last evening's 3 hour lightning display...

Frank

[viberama]

Dry Air, Dry Air, Dry Air. This has been a real deal breaker for Arthur. From an observation outside, all you have to do is go 2 miles inland and the sky's are clear and sunny. Until the north and northwest quad juices up, Arthur is going to have problems. These were some of the same problems as last year.

[NDG]

Dry Air, Dry Air, Dry Air. This has been a real deal breaker for Arthur. From an observation outside, all you have to do is go 2 miles inland and the sky's are clear and sunny. Until the north and northwest quad juices up, Arthur is going to have problems. These were some of the same problems as last year.

Meanwhile just a few miles to your south in New Smyrna Beach, they are getting drenched for the last couple of hours, definitely the immediate coastal barrier Islands are the only ones getting some action for now, but not much.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

"The track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that
direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours."

If I read that correctly, the NHC still expects the trough to arrive in time to pull Arthur off the coastline. Unless the storm motion increases, or goes WAY west, I don't see much of an increased risk for the south NC beaches.

I certainly hope that you are right.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon

[hurricanes1234]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon

Not looking as good as it did even as recent as early this morning, in my opinion.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

This storm has looked like it is weakening for a while now and now the models have shifted west of the NHC. Looks like Wilmington, NC is not out of the gun just yet. Wonder if this thing can fight hard again like it has been to get its act together today.

[hurricanes1234]

This storm has looked like it is weakening for a while now and now the models have shifted west of the NHC. Looks like Wilmington, NC is not out of the gun just yet. Wonder if this thing can fight hard again like it has been to get its act together today.

The dry air has to stop affecting it first. This may happen once it develops a more solid inner core.

[hohnywx]

"The track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that
direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours."

If I read that correctly, the NHC still expects the trough to arrive in time to pull Arthur off the coastline. Unless the storm motion increases, or goes WAY west, I don't see much of an increased risk for the south NC beaches.

No, you didn't read that right. The NHC doesn't made wide shifts every six hours. What they are doing is leaving the door open for more westward shifts in the track if the models continue to show what they currently show.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

"The track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that
direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours."

If I read that correctly, the NHC still expects the trough to arrive in time to pull Arthur off the coastline. Unless the storm motion increases, or goes WAY west, I don't see much of an increased risk for the south NC beaches.

No, you didn't read that right. The NHC doesn't made wide shifts every six hours. What they are doing is leaving the door open for more westward shifts in the track if the models continue to show what they currently show.

That's actually how I read it too, hohnywx. I think the 11am update will have a little more westerly shift to the track.