ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

what do the conditions look like in her path as of now?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Storm Bertha has made huge strides in organization today. Model intensity guidance didn't foresee the storm reaching 50kts for another 48 hours or so.

This might make a run at Category 2 intensity in a few days.

[NDG]

what do the conditions look like in her path as of now?

Decreasing shear through at least the next 24 hrs, according to the SHIPS model.

[ozonepete]

Tropical Storm Bertha has made huge strides in organization today. Model intensity guidance didn't foresee the storm reaching 50kts for another 48 hours or so.

This might make a run at Category 2 intensity in a few days.

Wouldn't surprise me at all.

[Hammy]

65 mph as of 11pm advisory, forecast to hurricane within 24 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Very high pressure for a strong tropical storm too...basically sitting in a ridge?

[NDG]

Very high pressure for a strong tropical storm too...basically sitting in a ridge?

Pressures across the Atlantic have been running above average so it is surrounded by very high pressures for this time of the year.

[galaxy401]

Will this be the first hurricane with the pressure above 1000 since Danny? Looks very possible.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Bertha finally looks better and may become a Hurricane later today... Lets see.. It has a lot of grit!



Synopsis for Bertha and other systems:http://goo.gl/5ugCVz

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

Will this be the first hurricane with the pressure above 1000 since Danny? Looks very possible.

Most likely. 1000mb would support a hurricane in this environment. The Dvorak base (987) would likely support a Cat 2.

[Equilibrium]

[Hammy]

winds seem to be down a bit from the last recon.

[Equilibrium]

Got some nice lightening bolts going good sign its intensifying. But yeah Hammy no sign of a 50 knot barb on that ascat pass. I would not read to much into it obviously not as actuate as RECON data .


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

Center may be becoming exposed slightly to the north and the northerly wind shear looks like it's increasing.

[Equilibrium]

Its starting to look elongated in the past hour.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

Another burst of convection and it's up to 70mph with 999mb pressure.

[Dean4Storms]

All the difference in the world when you step into lighter shear and moist air!

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

zoomed out: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

I see low level clouds moving away from Bertha, though I can also see inflow from the west. Overall it doesn't give the impression of a very strong organized storm.

[NDG]

AF Recon already finding 67 knot flight level winds this morning.

[NDG]

AF Recon's pass: