ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nate-Gillson]

Those frogs are still going while the wind is picking up...

[CrazyC83]

When was the last "classic" hurricane to have so much data in the Atlantic?

[abajan]

Full kudos to the NHC on their superb job forecasting Gonzalo's track. From as far back as 11 AM on Monday (over four days ago) they were projecting a possible hit on Bermuda:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Outstanding!

[ozonepete]

Full kudos to the NHC on their superb job forecasting Gonzalo's track. From as far back as 11 AM on Monday (over four days ago) they were projecting a possible hit on Bermuda:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Outstanding!

I totally agree. They (and the models) have become superb on track forecasting.

[CrazyC83]

Once this is over - next stop for Gonzalo: Newfoundland. Will it be a direct hit for that island or a miss?

[ozonepete]

When was the last "classic" hurricane to have so much data in the Atlantic?

Good question. For starters I don't ever remember having visual data from two stations about 10 miles apart where one is in the eye-wall and the other isn't for this long of a period.

Did anyone have the times from the webcam at Port Bermuda as to when the winds died out and when they started up again?

[ozonepete]

Once this is over - next stop for Gonzalo: Newfoundland. Will it be a direct hit for that island or a miss?

So far the NHC was showing the eye passing just east of Cape Race. Let's see what the 11PM advisory shows.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1000 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...1000 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING NORTH
OF BERMUDA...

DURING THE PAST HOUR...WINDS AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT ON THE
NORTHEASTERN END OF THE ISLAND HAVE SWITCHED TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H AND A GUST TO
60 MPH...96 KM/H.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...WINDS AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF BERMUDA HAVE
SWITCHED TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 68 MPH...
110 KM/H AND A GUST TO 90 MPH...144 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM AST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 64.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Sanibel]

Those Port Bermuda winds should pick up because the backside eyewall hasn't hit yet.

[TheStormExpert]

So according to the 10pm NHC update things seem to be calming down some, or am I wrong?

[CrazyC83]

So according to the 10pm NHC update things seem to be calming down some, or am I wrong?

They calmed down to almost nothing in the 8-9 pm period but have picked up again (not quite as intense as before).

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They calmed down to almost nothing in the 8-9 pm period but have picked up again (not quite as intense as before).

Not yet.

[NDG]

Commissioners Point as of 20 mins past the hour reported winds of 84 mph sustained gusting to 118 mph.

[NDG]

Here is the 0z sounding from the balloon released by the BWS at 0z right when Gonzalo's eye was about to go over the Island.
I think it clearly shows that its eye was quiet tilted on an angle, reason why it appeared on satellite the eye was making landfall when the radar and surface observations showed most of the eye was still south of the island.

[NDG]

Commissioners Point showing that the southern eyewall is just as intense as the northern eyewall, wind gusting to 126 mph as of 30 mins past the hour.

[Sanibel]

The wind is really whipping past the webcam now.


The structure is in the process of being busted open by the front from the south.

[gatorcane]

Those frogs are still going while the wind is picking up...

I missed the frogs in the eye. That would have been interesting to hear. Sounded eerie!

Wind is really whipping right now on the Port Bermuda webcam but somehow there is still power it looks like.

[NDG]

Commissioners Point as of 40 minutes past the hour is now reporting sustained winds of 101 mph, gusting to 129 mph!!!!

[Sanibel]

Commissioners Point as of 40 minutes past the hour is now reporting sustained winds of 101 mph, gusting to 129 mph!!!!

No doubt we'll hear tales of the backend winds.

[CrazyC83]

The back side seems to be even strong than the front side! Might have to do with that convection that developed just before landfall rotating back on them.