WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

At work and shocked we now have a category 4! Skipped 3 from a category 2 hours ago! Impressive intensification.

The leading edge of it's eastern outflow bringing very heavy rains right now and has been for hours.

[supercane4867]

I have no words...

[stormcruisin]

Not really shocked by this a few models where showing a super ty about on early Saturday it will happen the way this is building question is just how much there's a lot of miles ahead with 32+ deg ocean under it.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Strongest ever is possible 7

[stormcruisin]

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 5 July 2014

<Analyses at 05/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°00'(16.0°)
E137°00'(137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE500km(270NM)
NW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E134°35'(134.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E132°25'(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 07/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°35'(21.6°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°05'(26.1°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)

[supercane4867]

You know, is extremely rare for any model outcome to show pressures that deep

I have seen many verification data before and this maybe the first time ECMWF predicting a SLP way below 890hPa

[stormcruisin]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2014 Time : 063000 UTC
Lat : 16:15:45 N Lon : 136:46:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 938.0mb/119.8kt


I see now JTWC is forecasting a cat5 on the cimiss site

[stormcruisin]

Think it will get there much sooner.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

You know, is extremely rare for any model outcome to show pressures that deep

I have seen many verification data before and this maybe the first time ECMWF predicting a SLP way below 890hPa

Maybe this would be stronger than Haiyan, Tip or Megi? This is the fastest intensifying storm I have ever, ever tracked. Second, the OHC is very high over the storm's track. Then, the intensity forecast is also unusually strong.

[stormcruisin]

Wrapping tight and really cranking hard. Hope they making preparations already in japan or this.

This is intensifying at the rate of ITA.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wrapping tight and really cranking hard. Hope they making preparations already in japan or this.

This is intensifying at the rate of ITA.

Actually, FASTER than Ita.

[stormcruisin]

TXPQ27 KNES 050323
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 05/0232Z

C. 15.8N

D. 137.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/TMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND FINALLY CIRCULAR WITH
DT=6.0 BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY BLACK RING FOR
CF=5.5 BUT ADDED 0.5 FOR BANDING FOR DT=6.0. MET ON RAPID CURVE IS 4.5
AND PAT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tokyo is running it at
2014JUL05 080100 6.4 919.0 +2.4 124.6 6.2 6.3 6.3

[euro6208]

WOW!

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 813 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED, MAINTAINED A
HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 25-NM EYE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE ROBUST ALL-AROUND OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY FACTOR TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
08W OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS;
THEREFORE, THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING
AT 150 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE
AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN AFTER TAU 96 AS
THE STR BEGINS TO SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST
VALUES, AND THE START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING
PROCESS. ALTHOUGH TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES
LAND-FALL INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIASED
TOWARDS ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

I have no words...

886 mb and 170 knots sustained?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess this has a medium chance of surpassing typhoon Haiyan, for having the strongest verified 1-min sustained wind speeds, as the JTWC forecast 150 kts!

[euro6208]

Max Potential Intensity Pressure

860 and just north of 840!



Max Potential Intensity Wind Speed

160 knots!

[euro6208]

Where are the storm2k posters from Okinawa? I remember some who are active in the forum when the typhoon season heats up. And this howler is forecast to affect the island!

Unfortunately some of them left the island due to them in the military and such. I do miss reading their reports though! Hopefully we get some new members to join from up there...

[mrbagyo]

TXPQ27 KNES 050911
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 05/0832Z

C. 16.3N

D. 136.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS FIGHTING TO MAINTAIN VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER 6HRS. DT=5.5 BASED ON EMBEDDED IN LG FOR 5.0
AND PLUS 0.5 FOR OW EYE SURROUNDED BY BLACK. FT IS BASED ON DT. MET ON
RAPID CURVE IS 5.0 AND PAT=5.5.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
swanson got a point, Neoguri doesn't looked properly stacked, the eye seems tilted to the north west
is windshear affecting Neoguri???
or it's just concentrating its power to bomb it out later.

[euro6208]

Does anyone know how much it has deepened pressure wise?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TXPQ27 KNES 050911
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 05/0832Z

C. 16.3N

D. 136.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS FIGHTING TO MAINTAIN VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER 6HRS. DT=5.5 BASED ON EMBEDDED IN LG FOR 5.0
AND PLUS 0.5 FOR OW EYE SURROUNDED BY BLACK. FT IS BASED ON DT. MET ON
RAPID CURVE IS 5.0 AND PAT=5.5.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
swanson got a point, Neoguri doesn't looked properly stacked, the eye seems tilted to the north west
is windshear affecting Neoguri???
or it's just concentrating its power to bomb it out later.

As it moves NW, the VWS will even decrease more, so the storm will have no problems later on.