ATL: BERTHA - Models

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140729 1800 140730 0600 140730 1800 140731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 40.1W 10.1N 43.3W 10.8N 46.7W 11.4N 49.9W
BAMD 9.5N 40.1W 9.7N 42.6W 10.0N 44.8W 10.6N 47.0W
BAMM 9.5N 40.1W 9.7N 42.6W 10.1N 45.1W 10.7N 47.6W
LBAR 9.5N 40.1W 9.3N 43.1W 9.4N 46.1W 9.6N 49.1W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140731 1800 140801 1800 140802 1800 140803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 52.8W 13.6N 58.2W 15.9N 63.8W 18.2N 69.4W
BAMD 11.4N 49.0W 13.7N 52.8W 17.2N 57.0W 20.3N 60.7W
BAMM 11.7N 50.1W 14.3N 54.8W 17.8N 59.7W 20.8N 64.1W
LBAR 10.0N 51.9W 11.3N 57.3W 14.0N 61.9W 21.2N 65.3W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 40.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 37.1W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 33.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[blp]

Starting tomorrow morning we should start to see a more WNW heading if the models are to verify. Right now the GFS is little off on this graphic below.

[cycloneye]

Nice to have the EC on board with development. Now we are talking consensus despite the difference on intensity or tracks.

[TheStormExpert]

Nice to have the EC on board with development. Now we are talking consensus despite the difference on intensity or tracks.

Though intensity seems to be kind of coming in consensus, right?

[Blown Away]

18z...


18z...


18z...

[blp]

Here is the low resolution view. Definitely more defined on the Euro this run.

[blp]

Very weak over the Bahamas. Looks like it recurves later.

[blp]

Here are the ensembles. You can see a good portion are already too far north at the initial starting point. I don't know if they are just old on the graphic but there is certainly now a clear split in the guidance.

[Blown Away]

The 12z GFS operational is much farther west than 06z... But many more recurve ensembles in the 12z GFS...

I corrected it...

[Alyono]

the 18Z GFS has not even been run yet

[Hurricaneman]

the 18Z GFS has not even been run yet

You're right, these are not the 18z ensembles but the 12z ones

[Blown Away]

18z...

[Hurricaneman]

http://i60.tinypic.com/2ih9t8m.jpg
18z...

looking at the guidance and if this is stronger in the bahamas than modeled the SE coast and possibly even Florida should keep an eye on this even if it doesn't hit because of the margin of error

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[blp]

Here is the high resolution Euro at 120hrs



144hrs gets smashed in the bahamas.

[Nimbus]

The Climatology built into the models would predict that if 93L doesn't spin up before reaching the Caribbean the shear from South America would kill it.

The low latitude tropical storm Earl 2004 dissipated back to a wave that continued west making landfall south of the Yucatan.

Charley 2004 spun up late from a low latitude and did make it into the GOM but the periphery of the high pressure ridge was steering then.

With 93L there is a persistent TUT north of Puerto Rico that should prevent the ridge 93L is embedded in from building further west. As a developed system it would respond as the models are predicting. Could it sneak under the TUT and develop in the western Caribbean? not likely according to the current models.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS.. 60 Hours... Quite a bit stronger than 12z at this point...

[Riptide]

High Resolution view....72 hrs. 994mb

[Blown Away]

18z GFS.. 84 Hours...

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 108 Hours... Weakening in that MDR death zone...

[gatorcane]

Western Atlantic ridge looks a little stronger on the 18Z run than the 12Z out through 114 hours. Let's see how it impacts the track.