EPAC: SIMON - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I bet Simon isn't the last cat 4 this year here.

I'd go as far and say we are going to 2 more majors.

[Macrocane]

Could this be a temporal pattern or are the oceans shifting to inactive ATL-active Pacific again?

[galaxy401]

I haven't seen the NHC put 130 mph in an advisory before. Usually it's 135.

Looks very impressive.

[Yellow Evan]

I haven't seen the NHC put 130 mph in an advisory before. Usually it's 135.

Looks very impressive.

Emilia 12, it peaked at 140 mph, but NHC went 130 mph.

[Yellow Evan]

Could this be a temporal pattern or are the oceans shifting to inactive ATL-active Pacific again?

Too soon to tell.

BTW, I like your comparison on the previous page to 2004-05 AHS.

[Kingarabian]

Talk about RI!

I blinked and now it's a major hurricane.

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

...SIMON RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 116.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE SIMON MOVES OVER COLDER
WATER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. STARTING
ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[WeatherGuesser]

HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

Simon peaked around 0000 UTC based on various satellite intensity
estimates and microwave satellite imagery indicating that an eyewall
replacement was well underway at that time. Since then, more recent
conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that the
inner-core convection has eroded significantly, especially in the
southwestern semicircle, and that the eye is rapidly becoming less
distinct. The initial intensity of 100 kt, which could be generous,
is based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.

The initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. A steadily
weakening Simon is forecast to move around the western periphery of
a deep-layer ridge that extends from central Mexico westward to
southern Baja California Sur for the next 48 hours, and then recurve
to the northeast as the cyclone comes under the influence of
mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching weak shortwave
trough. As the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically shallow,
the system is expected to slow down until it reaches the latitude
of recurvature along 24N-25N, after which a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected. The official forecast track is just an
update of the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus
model TVCN.

Simon is now located over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and is
heading for cooler water. The cyclone is expected to remain in
unfavorable oceanic and thermodynamic conditions for at least the
next 72 hours, during which time southwesterly vertical wind shear
is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt by 48 hours. These
hostile conditions are expected to result in rapid weakening of
Simon, with the cyclone becoming a remnant low pressure system by 96
hours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous advisory, and essentially follows the intensity
consensus model IVCN.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture
associated with the cyclone is expected to spread across northern
Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger another heavy rain event in those
regions in a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 22.1N 116.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 23.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 24.0N 117.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 24.9N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 25.6N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 27.6N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.9N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z 30.6N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 19, 2014100512, , BEST, 0, 225N, 1170W, 90, 969, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 60, 70, 1009, 220, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,
EP, 19, 2014100512, , BEST, 0, 225N, 1170W, 90, 969, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1009, 220, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,
EP, 19, 2014100512, , BEST, 0, 225N, 1170W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 15, 1009, 220, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 117.1W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES





HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

Simon continues to weaken. The distribution of deep convection has
become more asymmetric during the last 12 hours, and there has been
a general warming of cloud top temperatures. The cyclone's cloud
canopy has also been expanding over the northern semicircle while
eroding some to the south. This transformation of the cloud pattern
is primarily related to an increase in southwesterly shear over the
hurricane, as diagnosed by UW-CIMSS shear analyses and SHIPS model
output. A blend of Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB
is used to reduce the initial intensity to 85 kt.

As Simon gains latitude during the next couple of days, a
further increase in shear is expected in association with a mid-
to upper-level shortwave trough several hundred miles west of the
coast of southern California. The abrupt and substantial increase
in shear, combined with water temperatures around 25 deg C and other
considerably less conducive thermodynamic conditions, should result
in a rapid decay of the cyclone. Global models show the low- to
mid-level centers of Simon decoupling around 48 hours, and Simon
should become a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows rapid weakening
over the next 48 hours and is in excellent agreement with the latest
multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 325/09. Simon is moving into a
region of weak steering on the western periphery of a subtropical
ridge centered near western Mexico. This synoptic pattern should
result in the cyclone's gradual turning toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed over the next day or so. The previously
mentioned shortwave trough should cause Simon to turn northeastward
within 48 hours, with Simon or its remnants likely moving over the
north-central portion of the Baja California peninsula later in the
forecast period. The NHC forecast has not changed much relative to
the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus,
substantially slower than the GFS solution which brings Simon inland
over northwestern Mexico in 72 hours.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture
associated with the cyclone is expected to spread across the
northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into
the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in
those regions in a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.9N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.6N 117.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 25.4N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 26.2N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 28.2N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z 29.7N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[CrazyC83]

Haven't really followed, but barely a hurricane now it appears:


000
URPN12 KWBC 051826
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP192014
A. 05/18:05:53Z
B. 23 deg 05 min N
117 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2875 m
D. 55 kt
E. 099 deg 16 nm
F. 184 deg 72 kt
G. 105 deg 22 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 10 C / 3059 m
J. 15 C / 3071 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 0219E SIMON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 72 KT 105 / 22 NM 18:00:27Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 200 / 15 KTS

[galaxy401]

Well that weakened fast. Much different than 24 hours ago.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 19, 2014100518, , BEST, 0, 231N, 1175W, 75, 976, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 90, 1010, 240, 20, 90, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,
EP, 19, 2014100518, , BEST, 0, 231N, 1175W, 75, 976, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 1010, 240, 20, 90, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,
EP, 19, 2014100518, , BEST, 0, 231N, 1175W, 75, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 20, 90, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D,

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Simon has found that
the cyclone's maximum winds continue to decrease quickly. The
plane measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and
surface-based SFMR winds as high as 58 kt in the northeastern
quadrant. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is
lowered to 65 kt, which could be generous. UW-CIMSS analyses and
the SHIPS output indicate that southwesterly shear has increased to
about 20 kt, and satellite imagery suggests that Simon's circulation
is beginning to decouple. With the cyclone expected to remain over
24-25C water and in a highly sheared environment during the next few
days, continued rapid weakening is anticipated. The updated NHC
forecast is lower than the previous forecast mainly due to the
adjusted initial intensity, and Simon is likely to become a tropical
depression in 36 hours and a remnant low by 48 hours, before it
reaches the Baja California peninsula. Forecast fields from the
global models indicate that the cyclone will have dissipated over
northwestern Mexico by day 4, which is indicated in the official
forecast.

Simon has turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of
330/8 kt. The hurricane is currently moving around the western
periphery of a mid-level high centered near the west coast of
Mexico, and it should turn northward and then northeastward
around this feature during the next 48-72 hours. The model
guidance is in relatively good agreement on the future track of
Simon, but there continues to be disagreement on how fast Simon or
its remnants reach the Baja California peninsula. For example, the
GFS and ECMWF solutions are about 24 hours apart on when they bring
the center of Simon to the coast. The updated NHC track forecast
is a little faster than the previous one after 24 hours but is
relatively close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture
associated with the cyclone is expected to spread across the
northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into
the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in
those regions in a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 23.4N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 24.2N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 25.2N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 26.2N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 27.5N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z 30.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 117.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Simon continues to slowly degrade
this evening. The cloud tops have gradually warmed and recent
microwave data indicate that the low-level center is located to the
southwest of the main convective mass due to moderate southwesterly
shear. The latest Dvorak Data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are
3.5, but current intensity numbers remain higher due to Dvorak
weakening constraints. The initial wind speed has been lowered to
60 kt, closer to the data T-numbers and a little below what was
supported by the earlier NOAA aircraft data.

Increasing southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures,
and drier air should cause continued weakening during the next
couple of days. Simon is forecast to become a tropical depression
within 36 hours and should degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday,
before the center reaches the Baja California peninsula. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
SHIPS/LGEM guidance and is close to the model consensus.

Simon is moving north-northwestward or 345 degrees at about 6 kt.
The cyclone should turn northward, then north-northeastward during
the next 24 hours around the western side of a mid-level high
located near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Although the track
guidance generally agrees on this scenario, there continues to be
differences in how soon Simon or its remnants will reach the Baja
peninsula. The GFS takes the cyclone across the Baja peninsula in
about 48 hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET shows this occurring about
a day later. The NHC track forecast remains in between these
solutions and is close to the multi-model consensus.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 23.8N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 25.7N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 26.9N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 28.1N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z 30.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Iune]

I haven't seen the NHC put 130 mph in an advisory before. Usually it's 135.

Looks very impressive.

The NHC revised the SSHS recently (I think before last season) to fix issues with the rounding of units. From what I remember, 115 knots actually is equal to 132 mph, which would round down to 130 mph, but the old cutoff for Cat 3 and Cat 4 was 133 mph. As a result, the NHC would improperly round 115 knots to 135 mph.

Since they fixed the scale to properly deal with this, they've been using 130 mph (I think I remember seeing it on a few occasions).

[Cyclenall]

Can this season get any more interesting?

It's like watching 2004 or 2005 in the Atlantic, with less landfalling systems of course but just as interesting. Intensity forecast has been a headache for the NHC, they will surely learn some lessons from this season.

Yes, this season can get more interesting. No, its not like watching 2004 or 2005 in the Atlantic, nor is it just as interesting; its not even in the same dimension of those two. As incredible as this Epac year is, saying its just as interesting as 2005 for example is hard for me to believe for anyone who tracked them back "there". Those seasons inspired the biggest growth of tropical cyclone fascination among so many people in modern times, something this Epac season or any other can't do.

About the experts learning lessons from this season, I can safety say its doubtful as the same type of forecasting errors were present in the 2006 Epac season and nothing has changed since then. Accuracy improvement if there is any will be unnoticeable. I haven't heard of any big revolutions in this area and more storms tracked and logged in the database isn't the answer. Not saying there won't be anything at all "learned", but after 2006 and 2009 I'm positive next year the same level of accuracy will remain. They admit to not making any major gains in decades.

The EPAC has had more Cat 4+ storms in 2014 than the Atlantic has had total tropical cyclones (including depressions)...

Thanks for reminding us, lets see if this gaping contrast can get any larger.

BTW, I like your comparison on the previous page to 2004-05 AHS.

Why? If were talking about what the Epac is capable of in comparison, then yes. Just a straight raw comparison then heck no.

Wow, and it just barely made it to Category 4! The season is looking to set records. When last was our "S" storm so intense?

Sergio 1982. It peaked at 110 knots, very close to category 4 threshold.

So its the strongest "S" name storm ever in this basin.

On Simon's first advisory, it was forecast to reach 55 knots peak at 72 hours. 60 knots off peak, its tied for 2nd highest I've ever seen difference wise (Hurricane Cristina being the other from this year). The highest was Hurricane Amanda from this May where she was also forecast to be 55 knots peak at 72 hours. The difference for Amanda was a shocking 80 knots.

The rate of weakening for this one is likely among the fastest too, especially without mountains being involved. There was another one this season that I thought was one of the fastest "plunges", Simon out-did whatever it was . The rate of weakening has sharply declined though in the past 8 hours.

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 117.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGHTOUT THESE AREAS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[WeatherGuesser]

The rate of weakening for this one is likely among the fastest too, especially without mountains being involved. There was another one this season that I thought was one of the fastest "plunges", Simon out-did whatever it was . The rate of weakening has sharply declined though in the past 8 hours.

800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

Down to:

200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

Somebody stomped on the brakes.

[WeatherGuesser]

Could still pose problems for AZ/NM though in a week or so if the track holds true.