CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know the islands have always seemed to luck out whenever a system threatens so I'm going to assume the same happens again with either a near miss or it weakening right before landfall.

Very true, but 2014 is just different it seems.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF has a 20 mb drop in 21 hours.

[supercane4867]

HWRF has a 20 mb drop in 21 hours.

And becomes a 944mb solid Cat.4 in 54 hours

[TheStormExpert]

I wonder if Cantore is heading to Hawaii?

No doubt if trends continue! But then who will go to Bermuda for Gonzalo? They should clone him.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, very interesting week for sure. We could be having direct landfalls on two middle of the ocean islands in two different basins at almost the same time this week with Ana and Gonzalo. Ana is looking better and better and could indeed become a formidable tropical cyclone approaching Hilo. Hopefully, it will not become very strong though.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder if Cantore is heading to Hawaii?

No doubt if trends continue! But then who will go to Bermuda for Gonzalo? They should clone him.

They'll have the USA over Bermuda.

[northjaxpro]

I wonder if Cantore is heading to Hawaii?

No doubt if trends continue! But then who will go to Bermuda for Gonzalo? They should clone him.

They'll have the USA over Bermuda.

Yeah, I would think they would send him to Hilo.

[Kingarabian]

For that HWRF forecast to verify it needs to get going within the next 6 hours.

Only reason anyone is giving the HWRF forecast any weight is because of its good job this season in the Pacific. Else, I would've thrown it out the window.

[Kingarabian]

[EquusStorm]

Looking pretty good.

[AFWeather]

She looks to be south of the latest forecast track and also moving faster than anticipated.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 55kts on 00z Best Track.

CP, 02, 2014101500, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1448W, 55, 996, TS

[gatorcane]

http://i.imgur.com/s8Ny72t

She looks to be south of the latest forecast track and also moving faster than anticipated.

Yep sure does. Perhaps the ECMWF track which is south of the NHC guidance may get this right in which case it would pass the big island to the south.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/s8Ny72t

She looks to be south of the latest forecast track and also moving faster than anticipated.

Yep sure does. Perhaps the ECMWF track which is south of the NHC guidance may get this right in which case it would pass the big island to the south.

I highly doubt the Euro will verify. Remember it keeps it quite weak.

[Kingarabian]

http://i.imgur.com/s8Ny72t

She looks to be south of the latest forecast track and also moving faster than anticipated.

Yep sure does. Perhaps the ECMWF track which is south of the NHC guidance may get this right in which case it would pass the big island to the south.

I highly doubt the Euro will verify. Remember it keeps it quite weak.

Well current microwave imagery are not impressive.
But the Euro has been shifting right each run from what I see.

[Yellow Evan]

Well current microwave imagery are not impressive.
But the Euro has been shifting right each run from what I see.

There's plenty of time. HWRF brings this to Cat 3-4 and IMO is the best model.

[Kingarabian]

Well current microwave imagery are not impressive.
But the Euro has been shifting right each run from what I see.

There's plenty of time. HWRF brings this to Cat 3-4 and IMO is the best model.

I know you're just stating science and you may be right, but I'm being conservative on purpose. If the HWRF's scenario takes place then we're screwed.

[gatorcane]

Here is the simulated IR SAT image from the 18Z HWRF at 96 hours just east of the big island of Hawaii:

I know this model has proven the most accurate in the EPAC this year so let us hope it is wrong this time

[Kingarabian]

Yeah that would kill people.

Ana right now, consists of a hyperactive CDO.

[gatorcane]

Guidance as of 18Z. Hawaii does appear to be the target. I also included GFS ensembles (second image). Hawaii is underneath there somewhere.