ATL: Ex NINE

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TOWARD FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 22N IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND
94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N84W 28N90W 25N97W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.THE CHANCE OF THIS
FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

Radar from Campeche.

[HURRICANELONNY]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TOWARD FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 22N IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND
94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N84W 28N90W 25N97W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.THE CHANCE OF THIS
FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

According to the miami discussion. it looks like a front will push all the moisture south by the weekend. Sounds good to me.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... =Hollywood

[gatorcane]

Look at how the NHC drew the map. So that suggests a 50% chance of development in the NW Caribbean. GFS shows a hurricane forming there and the ECMWF has what looks like maybe a depression. The consensus between these two models is a possible cyclone forming there and coming back north. Interesting scenario unfolding.

[cycloneye]

Note=I moved some posts that had model runs to the 93L Models thread.

[cycloneye]

At 1200 UTC, 21 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.5°N and 94°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 90 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb.

[gatorcane]

Seems that all the SAT imagery on the NHC and RAMMB site is behind (from last night). Is there an outage?

Also the invest is down to 1005MB so pressure continues to slowly drop.

[cycloneye]

Seems that all the SAT imagery on the NHC and RAMMB site is behind (from last night). Is there an outage?

Also the invest is down to 1005MB so pressure continues to slowly drop.

There is an outage that they are trying to resolved soon.


Subject: Administrative: OSPO Network Outage Issued: October 20,
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------020009080802090403040308
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

*Topic: *Network problems

*Date/Time Issued**:***October 20, 2014 2230 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*Email and internet connectivity**

**

*Date/Time of Initial Impact: * October 20, 2014 2148 UTC

**

*Date/Time of Expected End:*TBD******

*Length of Outage:*TBD*

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/MESS/MSG2932228.01.txt

[Sanibel]

There's definitely something spinning down there.

[cycloneye]

I recommend all to see this new video by Levi Cowan as he explains the two parts of the whole big picture down the road.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... h-florida/

[abajan]

Look at how the NHC drew the map. So that suggests a 50% chance of development in the NW Caribbean. GFS shows a hurricane forming there and the ECMWF has what looks like maybe a depression. The consensus between these two models is a possible cyclone forming there and coming back north. Interesting scenario unfolding.

http://i57.tinypic.com/10ga3w7.jpg

I think if it heads into the NW Caribbean as shown in that image, it could really ramp up. I haven't checked the water temps there recently but they're usually the hottest in the Atlantic.

This is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

I recommend all to see this new video by Levi Cowan as he explains the two parts of the whole big picture down the road.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... h-florida/

Really great video as usual from Levi and I agree with him on his thoughts.

[gatorcane]

Seems that all the SAT imagery on the NHC and RAMMB site is behind (from last night). Is there an outage?

Also the invest is down to 1005MB so pressure continues to slowly drop.

There is an outage that they are trying to resolved soon.

NASA site has some SAT imagery that we can use in the meantime:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[wxman57]

Yes, very good video by Levi. Anything moving into the NW Caribbean will NOT have a very favorable environment. The water could be boiling and that would make no difference. Plenty of cool/dry air flowing south all the way to the NW Caribbean by this weekend is not a good setup for TC development/intensification.

[SFLcane]

Next... Lol.. 2 dozen phantom storms from the GFS. Still recovering from the last major that moved through here few weeks back per GFS.

[blp]

It is to early to write off the system. Yesterday we had a totally different setup as Levi acurately mentioned with the shortwave. I actually think what might save this is that if you look at the Euro and GFS they dive the BOC system all the way into the SW Carribean which may actually shield it from the dry air. That is a variable that was not showing up yesterday.

[gatorcane]

Agreed blp. No doubt a system could form in the Caribbean from this. The GFS has support from the GEM, plus until the NAVGEM starting diving it down into Mexico, was showing the same thing in the Caribbean. Even the ECMWF has swung to the GFS on this for the first time in the 00Z run, though it didn't show anything strong (yet).

I think 50% is a good forecast at this point from the NHC and we will just have to watch and wait. It wouldn't surprise me if the ECMWF shows something stronger in the Caribbean in the 12Z as it seems to be playing "catchup" with the GFS on this system.

As Levi noted, it will depend how strong 93l is when it emerges in the Caribbean. A stronger system will have a better chance. If it is weak and disorganized, it may succumb to the dry air intrusion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: It is to early to write off the system. Yesterday we had a totally different setup as Levi acurately mentioned with the shortwave. I actually think what might save this is that if you look at the Euro and GFS they dive the BOC system all the way into the SW Carribean which may actually shield it from the dry air. That is a variable that was not showing up yesterday.

I concur!

[northjaxpro]

Whatever becomes of 93L will be entering weak steering currents once it crosses the Yucatan into the NW Caribbean. I think the main low level vorticity will get left behind and will meander around for days in that area or near Cuba to wait for the next "kicker" coming down stream in the westerlies to pick it up and finally take it out sometime within the next week. That is provided if the system doesn't weaken to the point for dissipation once it crosses the Yucatan.
_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

It looks like Recon might be on their way.

000
URNT11 KNHC 211529
97779 15284 30268 89900 72200 27035 69971 /5750
RMK AF305 AF305 01IIA OB 02
SWS = 23 KTS
;


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT1.shtml