ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[emeraldislenc]

Welcome to Storm2K. Hope you find it as helpful as I do.

[floridasun78]

Hello, New poster from So Fl (Delray Beach).. Been following for a few years now

If the Euro shifts west again this afternoon.. Do you think its time to hit walmart up before the media hype begins this evening? If so, what do you recommend.. water, can goods, lots of beer, etc? This would be my first storm. What kind of timeframe is possible for power outages and sort?

Thanks for any input

hello south fl friend i here in miami too i will look my supply too dont want wait untill my south fl news go into hype good thing not ts yet but could soon

[tolakram]

6h

[srva80]

Thank you.. Oh I have found it very helpful in the past and even earlier this year with A&B

I follow Levi as well.. very informative

[tolakram]

Welcome all! Now let's keep the chatter down in here unless it's model run related please. Don't forget to visit the 96L discussion thread where you can also ask these questions.

[OuterBanker]

Which models are showing a threat to North Carolina?

The latest Euro is outright scary for here. They nailed Arthur a week out. I believe though that it maybe the GFS turn. I don't see the trough as strong as the Euro does. It will no doubt change, and none will have a real handle on it until a true center forms. Right now I would watch if I lived from Miami to the Outer Banks. BTW, we have already had our turn and what are the odds of two holidays getting ruined.

[tolakram]

12h

[tolakram]

18h

[tolakram]

24h

[Evil Jeremy]

Barely any change so far from the 06z run.

[Tyler Penland]

What are the odds are getting euro support?

I really don't see the Euro changing it tune, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the 12z will once again show a recurve. It's the only model that hasn't been flip flopping.

I wouldn't be surprised if it does. It's ensemble mean was split between florida/just offshore on the 0z run, and the 12z was also much further west than the OP.
Personally I'd take the ensemble mean of both the GFS/Euro over the OP at this point until we see some convergence.

[tolakram]

30h, not moving much. I'll post again once it does something.



source: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlsfc.php?run=2014082312&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=030

[tolakram]

So far it's nearly identical to the 0Z run.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS initialized with the pressure way to high. 1008mb, compared to the 1002mb Recon found this morming.

[tolakram]

Might be starting to move NE at 48h

[tolakram]

57h

[Evil Jeremy]

Drifting very, very slowly north around 54 hours, and a bit east of the 06z run.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS really elongating the 850mb vorticity off to the NE as the trough digs in. If it doesn't recurve here, this is about as close as a storm can get.

[Evil Jeremy]

Any northward movement has stopped around 60 hours.

[tolakram]

66h, stalled once more