ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7

RAMDIS Night Visible/Visible: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like a TS at all on satellite. Sort of looks like part of a cold front. Winds north of the center are out of the south. Another Bertha-like disorganized storm.

[blp]

Strong convergence and divergence in both the southern and northeast area. It still think this may split off. Regardless, this is very messy right now.

Convergence:


Divergence:

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Cristobal could get an infusion of dry air.

[gatorcane]

Cristobal's naked swirl has stalled the past couple of hours. Look at 24.9, 72.9:

[gatorcane]

Strong convergence and divergence in both the southern and northeast area. It still think this may split off. Regardless, this is very messy right now.

Convergence:
http://oi62.tinypic.com/2j49hqs.jpg

Divergence:
http://oi60.tinypic.com/4kfcee.jpg

Certainly seems like there might be a chance Cristobal separates from the trough now moving off to the ENE especially since it's such a mess and not a deep system at all.

However, as the Central Atlantic ridge builds back to the west when this trough exits, it should induce some slow N to NNE motion.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 04, 2014082512, , BEST, 0, 247N, 728W, 50, 993, TS

[blp]

Cristobal's naked swirl has stalled the past couple of hours. Look at 24.9, 72.9:
[]http://i58.tinypic.com/es2mn9.jpg[/img]

Yea Gator that llc is not looking good this morning. Not as tight as I would have I expected. I think something is going to redevelop somewhere else either NE or South or both, who knows.

[artist]

Looking closely at Gator's image, the naked swirl appears more mid level, imo. Not a met.

[wxman57]

Looking closely at Gator's image, the naked swirl appears more mid level, imo. Not a met.

Recon confirms it's a surface circulation there.

[blp]

According to the 06z GFS the vorticity becomes elongated in the next 12 hrs by the front while moving NNE and then detaches from the front around 29N and then moves off to the NE via another shortwave.



Run:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2014082506&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[artist]

Looking closely at Gator's image, the naked swirl appears more mid level, imo. Not a met.

Recon confirms it's a surface circulation there.

thanks, wxman!

[tolakram]

Fully Exposed now.



Looks to be drifting east/NE

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25

[tropicwatch]

Clearly seen!

[tropicwatch]

"ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY."

It better get cracking if it is going to make that forecast point.

[gatorcane]

NHC has mentioned that stronger northerly shear is keeping Cristobal moving only very slowly. It does seem the models have been wanting to eject him more quickly of to the NNE than what we have seen happening.

The latest NAM guidance no longer phases Cristobal with a developing low off to the NE and so keeps Cristobal only moving slowly north for the next 60 hours before turning NE which is a lot different than what previous NAM runs have been showing which is more of a NNE then NE movement more quickly as it combines with that low.

[blp]

Looks to be moving NE now. Needs to get to the convection quickly though to stay alive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

[blp]

NHC has mentioned that stronger northerly shear is keeping Cristobal moving only very slowly. It does seem the models have been wanting to eject him more quickly of to the NNE than what we have seen happening.

The latest NAM guidance no longer phases Cristobal with a developing low off to the NE and so keeps Cristobal only moving slowly north for the next 60 hours before turning NE which is a lot different than what previous NAM runs have been showing which is more of a NNE then NE movement more quickly as it combines with that low.

You can see why this was a complicated forecast a few days ago for the models. Many features to contend with and the structure being weak only added to the complexity.

[baytownwx]

It kind of reminds me of TS Debby (2012) in the sense that due to shear she kept relocating/reforming her center under the deeper convection.

[Alyono]

Cristobal reminds me of Cristobal from 2002