ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Time_Zone · #1521 Postby **Time_Zone** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:58 pm

Radar shows a shrinking, tightening of the eye....possibly trying to ramp up quickly?

#1522 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:59 pm

Check this out, Arthur is about to tap into the low level moisture from the TW that has been coming across the Caribbean.

Time sensitive image:

Aric Dunn · #1523 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:00 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Radar shows a shrinking, tightening of the eye....possibly trying to ramp up quickly?

It can try but there is still mid level dry air and until that goes away its going to be slow to deepen.

Aric Dunn · #1524 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:01 pm

NDG wrote:Check this out, Arthur is about to tap into the low level moisture from the TW that has been coming across the Caribbean.

Time sensitive image:

noticed that.. has to get past dry air first another 12 hr or so

WxEnthus · #1525 Postby **WxEnthus** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:02 pm

Anyone want to help out in the recon thread? Take over posting flight pics or HDOB/VDMs (or both, as I've also got severe storms locally to contend with)? Hard to keep up with all the incoming streams when multiple flights are in the air. 8-)

#1526 Postby **Jevo** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:04 pm

Something of note... The 18z GFS run that has just nudged its track West has the G-IV upper air sampling data in it, including 20 dropsondes

stephen23 · #1527 Postby **stephen23** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:05 pm

NDG wrote:Check this out, Arthur is about to tap into the low level moisture from the TW that has been coming across the Caribbean.

Time sensitive image:

Per your graphic has it not already tapped into it? Looks like it is pulling moisture from that wave across Cuba. There is a skinny band of moisture that is being pulled into the storm on that graphic.

supercane4867 · #1528 Postby **supercane4867** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:09 pm

Mandatory evacuation ordered for Hatteras Island

Aric Dunn · #1529 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:10 pm

987 from noaa again..

WxEnthus · #1530 Postby **WxEnthus** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:13 pm

00
URNT12 KNHC 022208
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 02/21:45:00Z
B. 29 deg 58 min N
079 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1353 m
D. 67 kt
E. 138 deg 18 nm
F. 235 deg 75 kt
G. 138 deg 18 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 14 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1523 m
K. NA / NA
L. Open SE
M. E08/32/28
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 0601A ARTHUR OB 15
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 138 / 18 NM 21:37:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 149 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 080 / 08 KT
;

#1531 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:14 pm

stephen23 wrote:
NDG wrote:Check this out, Arthur is about to tap into the low level moisture from the TW that has been coming across the Caribbean.

Time sensitive image:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Per your graphic has it not already tapped into it? Looks like it is pulling moisture from that wave across Cuba. There is a skinny band of moisture that is being pulled into the storm on that graphic.

You're right, nice catch.

galaxy401 · #1532 Postby **galaxy401** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:14 pm

Woke up early to find this storm struggling with dry air but now it's a borderline hurricane. Hope it stays offshore.

Aric Dunn · #1533 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:16 pm

per recon position fixes there is a ever so slight .. just west of due north.. a minor technicality.. but being the angle approach to the coast is such it is relevant ...

WxEnthus · #1534 Postby **WxEnthus** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:18 pm

Three center passes from AirForce plane:

WxEnthus · #1535 Postby **WxEnthus** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:per recon position fixes there is a ever so slight .. just west of due north.. a minor technicality.. but being the angle approach to the coast is such it is relevant ...

Can see that ever so slightly to the west movement in the picture I just posted of the center passes :uarrow:

#1536 Postby **Mouton** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:21 pm

I hope the forecasters are taking into consideration these are the hotest SSTs along the coast where it is passing now, circa 86 degrees. That combined with increased out flow and increase in available moisture and a relatively small storm could ramp this up fairly quickly even as early as this time of the season.

Interestingly, Joe Bastardi as early as this spring has been cautioning about this season having hurricane development closer in and from Florida north. Good call on his part.

Disclaimer: Please refer to current NOAA products for official reports and forecast guidance. Posts herein are my amateur opinion only -- they are not endorsed by S2k or any govt agency and should not be used for making important decisions.

#1537 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:22 pm

@chrisdbianchi
Mandatory evacuation for Hatteras Island, NC just issued: #Arthur http://darecountyem.com/mandatory-evacu ... as-island/

stephen23 · #1538 Postby **stephen23** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:25 pm

Looks like there is some convection firing right over the center right now. Just popped up in last frame refresh.

Aric Dunn · #1539 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:27 pm

anyone else noticing on radar the motion wobbling nnw over the last 30 to 45 min ?

Syx6sic · #1540 Postby **Syx6sic** » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:anyone else noticing on radar the motion wobbling nnw over the last 30 to 45 min ?

yea I have been seeingthat for a while to

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